Cork North Central: Call the next GE Results

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 


statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
Among the pieces of information in this articles on FF in the European Elections is that Billy Kelleher's desire to run has been blocked by Micheál Martin, so I guess that story is now put to bed.

Fianna Fáil to run new candidate for MEP Brian Crowley's seat | Irish Examiner


With Kelleher, a good running mate from the city (i.e. Fitzgerald), and very tight vote management, a second FF seat is not out of the question entirely. Seeing that Kelleher and 1 SF are safe, and that Labour transfers will elect a FG candidate or vice versa, they would have to do that by knocking out Barry, which means it is very unlikely.
 

cricket

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2009
Messages
13,786
I just can't see FF getting two seats in CNC no matter who they run.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
27.9% of the vote last time. A candidate like Fitcgerald could bring in 3%-4% of a personal vote too. And that before FF are up in the polls.

However, it does rely on really spot on vote management, with both candidates getting almost identical votes.

It also relies on Barry's vote dropping from 15.5% to around 12%, given the way he picked up transfers from Independents, The Workers Party and The Greens last time. The Socialist/AAA vote does seem down a good bit in the opinion polls, but my impression is that Barry is well regarded in the constituency and may not suffer like his party does.

Fundamentally, I don't think FF can deliver that level of vote management in CNC though, given the rural/urban split though.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
As an aside, there are things in that article that are more interesting for an Ireland South European Election thread, but I don't think we have one?
 

Verhofstadt

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
6,037
Website
********************
As an aside, there are things in that article that are more interesting for an Ireland South European Election thread, but I don't think we have one?
Indeed, article today on Mother Mary Imaculata Hanifin in the running for the Dublin seat it may be time for some Euro threads.
 

cricket

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 7, 2009
Messages
13,786
As I've posted elsewhere, the person to watch here is Ken ÓFlynn, FF. He has made no secret of his ambition to be on the party ticket and I expect him to stand as an independent if he doesn't. His sense of entitlement comes straight from his father and is almost on the Pee Flynn scale. Standing as an independent, he hasn't a hope, but could put the tin hat on the faint hopes of FF grabbing a 2nd seat.
 

Rocket Man

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Messages
355
Problem for FF is much of the Kelleher vote is personal.

FitzGerald (if it be he) is a popular Lord Mayor but a long way behind.

FG have never been strong in the constituency, however if national polling figures hold, they should retain their seat.

Question is which of the two..... Julie O'Leary is definitely one to watch for the future.

There is also a seat for SF.

Mick Barry still favourite to take the last imo but will face a challenge from FF and also, should she run again, Kathleen Lynch cannot be completely discounted.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
Aside from the whole entitlement thing, the problem with O'Flynn is that he is from Blarney, while Kelleher is from the White's Cross/Carrignavar area. So they are geographically located close to each other, but leave the city empty. And while O'Flynn has served on the city council, he's never broken 1,000 votes.

The FF candidate needs to be solidly city based if they are to credibly challenge for a second seat. Run someone like O'Flynn and it just boosts O'Brien's and Lynch's vote.

I'm also sure that Micheál Martin knows O'Flynn well and will ask himself if he wants him as a back bencher.

Julie O'Leary is a strange one to be honest. Everything I have ever seen her say or write suggests she would actually be more at home in The Green Party or the Labour Party, but maybe she has made the calculation that she has more chance of achieving what she wants in Fine Gael than in a small party.

O'Leary is running for the city council and how she does there will say a lot. On paper, she has a tough fight as her running mate looks better able to pick up votes in the parts of the NW LEA that lean Fine Gael. But she's certainly a hard worker and engaging, so I wouldn't rule her out. However, if she can't pick up that council seat, you couldn't fancy her chances in a Dáil election.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
Updates since this thread last saw some life.

Micheál Martin didn't manage to keep Kelleher off the European ticket and he got elected. That almost certainly scuppers FF's chances of two. Candidates aren't selected yet, but O'Flynn and Fitzgerald on the ticket would be the two local heavyweights and a good geographical spread.

Julie O'Leary won't be standing for FG having failed to take a seat in the locals and having taken up a new legal job. I don't think it's clear who the replacement will be yet. There's no clear female candidate, but replacing her with a man may be problematic from a gender quotas perspective. The two obvious candidates are Damian Boylan and Joe Kavanagh. Boylan may be perceived as having a bit too much geographic overlap with Colm Burke, who is definitely on the ticket and the by election candidate.

Kathleen Lynch won't be standing for Labour. John Maher will stand instead.

I suspect that after their local election results Sinn Féin will only run one. On paper their votes total is disturbing for a seat, but Ger Keohane, a former SF councilor took quite a lot and add that to the Sinn Féin total and they aren't in such a bad place, with nobody looking good to overtake them.
 

MOSS1

Active member
Joined
Feb 14, 2016
Messages
280
Updates since this thread last saw some life.

Micheál Martin didn't manage to keep Kelleher off the European ticket and he got elected. That almost certainly scuppers FF's chances of two. Candidates aren't selected yet, but O'Flynn and Fitzgerald on the ticket would be the two local heavyweights and a good geographical spread.

Julie O'Leary won't be standing for FG having failed to take a seat in the locals and having taken up a new legal job. I don't think it's clear who the replacement will be yet. There's no clear female candidate, but replacing her with a man may be problematic from a gender quotas perspective. The two obvious candidates are Damian Boylan and Joe Kavanagh. Boylan may be perceived as having a bit too much geographic overlap with Colm Burke, who is definitely on the ticket and the by election candidate.

Kathleen Lynch won't be standing for Labour. John Maher will stand instead.

I suspect that after their local election results Sinn Féin will only run one. On paper their votes total is disturbing for a seat, but Ger Keohane, a former SF councilor took quite a lot and add that to the Sinn Féin total and they aren't in such a bad place, with nobody looking good to overtake them.
FF selected Padraig O'sullivan at the end of July for both the by-election and General. They say they will add a second candidate for the General, probably Tony Fitzgerald or Ken O'Flynn
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,238
So where do we stand after the by-election?

If the percentages were repeated exactly and turnout was around the same as last time, and FF ran a 2 candidate strategy, with perfect vote management and FG and SF only ran 1, we would see FF2 FG1 SF1, with FF pipping Labour to the last seat by about 70 votes.

But perfect vote management is next to impossible and FG and SF may run two. And of course, Mick Barry can probably take a lot more votes than Fiona Ryan, so Solidarity aren't out of it. Against that in FF's favour a second candidate would bring in a level of personal vote that would mean the vote management didn't have to be so perfect.

A few other notes from the by-election.
- FG will take a seat if they run one candidate. Running a second would seem to seriously jeopardise their prospects
- Jonathan Gould seems to have a decent personal vote and if SF run two, he could unseat Jonathan O'Brien, but there aren't two seats here for Sinn Féin
- Sinn Féin's vote held up much better than it did in the local elections.
- FF would be significantly better off running Tony Fitzgerald in addition to Padraig O'Sullivan. Ken O'Flynn would be cannibalising a lot of vote around Glanmire. But would O'Flynn run as an Indpendent?
- Labour proved almost as transfer friendly as the Greens for the independents and smaller candidates. However, when up a tier to Aontú and Solidarity the Greens still did better
- Aontú seem quite popular with "A plague on all their houses voters"
- On the elimination of the Aontú candidate, FF did twice as well as any other party and there was no geographic cause.
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top