Cork North Central: Call the next GE Results

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 


statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

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Among the pieces of information in this articles on FF in the European Elections is that Billy Kelleher's desire to run has been blocked by Micheál Martin, so I guess that story is now put to bed.

Fianna Fáil to run new candidate for MEP Brian Crowley's seat | Irish Examiner


With Kelleher, a good running mate from the city (i.e. Fitzgerald), and very tight vote management, a second FF seat is not out of the question entirely. Seeing that Kelleher and 1 SF are safe, and that Labour transfers will elect a FG candidate or vice versa, they would have to do that by knocking out Barry, which means it is very unlikely.
 

cricket

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I just can't see FF getting two seats in CNC no matter who they run.
 

locke

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27.9% of the vote last time. A candidate like Fitcgerald could bring in 3%-4% of a personal vote too. And that before FF are up in the polls.

However, it does rely on really spot on vote management, with both candidates getting almost identical votes.

It also relies on Barry's vote dropping from 15.5% to around 12%, given the way he picked up transfers from Independents, The Workers Party and The Greens last time. The Socialist/AAA vote does seem down a good bit in the opinion polls, but my impression is that Barry is well regarded in the constituency and may not suffer like his party does.

Fundamentally, I don't think FF can deliver that level of vote management in CNC though, given the rural/urban split though.
 

locke

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As an aside, there are things in that article that are more interesting for an Ireland South European Election thread, but I don't think we have one?
 

Verhofstadt

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As an aside, there are things in that article that are more interesting for an Ireland South European Election thread, but I don't think we have one?
Indeed, article today on Mother Mary Imaculata Hanifin in the running for the Dublin seat it may be time for some Euro threads.
 

cricket

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As I've posted elsewhere, the person to watch here is Ken ÓFlynn, FF. He has made no secret of his ambition to be on the party ticket and I expect him to stand as an independent if he doesn't. His sense of entitlement comes straight from his father and is almost on the Pee Flynn scale. Standing as an independent, he hasn't a hope, but could put the tin hat on the faint hopes of FF grabbing a 2nd seat.
 

Rocket Man

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Problem for FF is much of the Kelleher vote is personal.

FitzGerald (if it be he) is a popular Lord Mayor but a long way behind.

FG have never been strong in the constituency, however if national polling figures hold, they should retain their seat.

Question is which of the two..... Julie O'Leary is definitely one to watch for the future.

There is also a seat for SF.

Mick Barry still favourite to take the last imo but will face a challenge from FF and also, should she run again, Kathleen Lynch cannot be completely discounted.
 

locke

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Aside from the whole entitlement thing, the problem with O'Flynn is that he is from Blarney, while Kelleher is from the White's Cross/Carrignavar area. So they are geographically located close to each other, but leave the city empty. And while O'Flynn has served on the city council, he's never broken 1,000 votes.

The FF candidate needs to be solidly city based if they are to credibly challenge for a second seat. Run someone like O'Flynn and it just boosts O'Brien's and Lynch's vote.

I'm also sure that Micheál Martin knows O'Flynn well and will ask himself if he wants him as a back bencher.

Julie O'Leary is a strange one to be honest. Everything I have ever seen her say or write suggests she would actually be more at home in The Green Party or the Labour Party, but maybe she has made the calculation that she has more chance of achieving what she wants in Fine Gael than in a small party.

O'Leary is running for the city council and how she does there will say a lot. On paper, she has a tough fight as her running mate looks better able to pick up votes in the parts of the NW LEA that lean Fine Gael. But she's certainly a hard worker and engaging, so I wouldn't rule her out. However, if she can't pick up that council seat, you couldn't fancy her chances in a Dáil election.
 


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