Cork North Central: Call the next GE Results



Finbar10

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2008
Messages
2,646
Local election %'s here:- FF 25%; FG 16%; SF 15%; Lab 7%; Green 7%; Sol/PBP 6%.
Byelection:- FF 28%; FG 21%; SF 20%; Lab 10%; Green 7%; Sol/PBP and Aontu 4% each.

The certainties here are FF, FG and SF 1 each (O'Brien's side-shuffle ensures SF won't be making a doomed attempt for 2) but I'm not convinced FF have enough for 2. I also can't understand those who assume Mick Barry's seat is safe because both the results above and their results nationally suggest that is very far from the case.

So who will take the last seat? Of course Barry may hold on. Otherwise the Greens do not have enough but their transfers should help Lab's John Maher, who will have benefitted from his byelection run. At present, I'd be going for FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, Lab 1.
Seems safe enough for SF and FF. Burke did decently in the bye election, has been around a long time, seems to be liked, and I'd say there'll be the feeling in the core FG vote that he deserves his chance, so I doubt a running mate would upset things for him.

I'd still reckon Barry will take a seat. Name recognition counts for a lot. Outside her ward, Fiona Ryan was essentially an unknown in the bye election. She actually did similarly to Barry himself when he first ran a few GEs past. However, Mick Barry got close to 16% first preferences in the last GE. It's honestly hard to see him starting off anywhere near 4%. His seat is far being from safe, however. Maher is certainly in with a shot. On balance, though, I'd say Barry will still get there in the end.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,194
Seems safe enough for SF and FF. Burke did decently in the bye election, has been around a long time, seems to be liked, and I'd say there'll be the feeling in the core FG vote that he deserves his chance, so I doubt a running mate would upset things for him.

I'd still reckon Barry will take a seat. Name recognition counts for a lot. Outside her ward, Fiona Ryan was essentially an unknown in the bye election. She actually did similarly to Barry himself when he first ran a few GEs past. However, Mick Barry got close to 16% first preferences in the last GE. It's honestly hard to see him starting off anywhere near 4%. His seat is far being from safe, however. Maher is certainly in with a shot. On balance, though, I'd say Barry will still get there in the end.
May well be so, but I just note again that the far left's performance in both opinion polls and real polls in recent times has been abysmal.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
FG's seat is only safe if they don't run two candidates. Until Julie O'Leary stepped out of the race, they were planning to run two.

FG always overestimate their strength in Cork NC because they used to get a decent vote share because of a Bernard Allen personal vote.
 

MOSS1

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2016
Messages
362
FG's seat is only safe if they don't run two candidates. Until Julie O'Leary stepped out of the race, they were planning to run two.

FG always overestimate their strength in Cork NC because they used to get a decent vote share because of a Bernard Allen personal vote.
Haven't they added another female candidate in Julie's place? Lorraine O'Neill?
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
I hadn't heard that, but it looks like they have. Based on her Local Election performance, she won't be causing too many problems for other candidates. Maybe having a nominal sweeper in that part of the constituency will help suppress the Labour and Green vote, shoring up Burke's position. I'd still have been inclined not to run a second candidate based on what we see in the polls and saw in the by-election.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
Fianna Fáil have added Sandra Murphy to the ticket. She has no background in politics and he main claim to fame is that she was a candidate on The Apprentice.

She also comes from the same area as Padraig O'Sullivan

What I don't know is if O'Sullivan and Murphy are the ticket or if they are running three.

If it is O'Sullivan and Murphy, I can only assume O'Flynn would go solo. While he might have accepted losing out to Fitzgerald, this would hurt too much.
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,897
Seems safe enough for SF and FF. Burke did decently in the bye election, has been around a long time, seems to be liked, and I'd say there'll be the feeling in the core FG vote that he deserves his chance, so I doubt a running mate would upset things for him.

I'd still reckon Barry will take a seat. Name recognition counts for a lot. Outside her ward, Fiona Ryan was essentially an unknown in the bye election. She actually did similarly to Barry himself when he first ran a few GEs past. However, Mick Barry got close to 16% first preferences in the last GE. It's honestly hard to see him starting off anywhere near 4%. His seat is far being from safe, however. Maher is certainly in with a shot. On balance, though, I'd say Barry will still get there in the end.
I'd still reckon Barry will take a seat.
He was vulnerable but I'd be surprised if he lost now given he's the last man standing, he has been surprisingly poor in the Dail but he should still hang on but I think alot of the small parties and inds (SD/Sol/PBPA) are going to struggle in this election.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
FF's line up confirmed as O'Sullivan, Murphy and Fitzgerald.

All eyes on O'Flynn now. If he runs as in Independent, FF could move from a potential two seats to zero seats.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
So FF are positioning Murphy as the south of the river candidate as she lives on Model Farm Road now. For most people her association is with the family pub in Glounethaune though and I wonder if anyone around Model Farm Road knows she lives there.

What that says to me is sweeper candidate. There aren't enough votes south of the river to elect a candidate. It was, however, an area where Julie O'Leary of FG did quite well in the last election and they will see it as an open territory, when no other party will have a candidate there (unless SF decide to go with two and have Henry Cremin as their second candidate).
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
I didn't realise that. I thought he was somewhere in Shanakiel. Since there's no real prospect of FG taking two, it seems a bit odd to run a sweeper against him unless with a thought towards government formation, they actually want to hit FG's prospects of a seat at all.

I'm still looking forward to Ken O'Flynn's response.

If he's willing to play the long game, he may just try to ensure that Tony Fitzgerald gets elected as the only FF TD and hopes to take a seat alongside him in a forthcoming election. Or he goes solo now.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
It puts the cat among the pigeons. He will poll half a quota and that will largely come from Fianna Fáil and won’t necessarily go back, especially to O’Sullivan or Murphy.

I reckon it does mean that if FF take one seat that it will be Fitzgerald, both for geographic reasons and because for O’Flynn’s supporters he is the FF candidate that is not perceived as having shafted O’Flynn.

I think there will be a small impact on Sinn Féin too, but nothing that Gould doesn’t have the votes to handle.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
Independent (and former Sinn Féin) councilor Ger Keohane is intending to run.

He won't get elected, but will take a couple of thousand votes.

The primary geographical impact is on Pádraig O'Sullivan of Fianna Fáil, with Maher (Lab), Moran (Grn), and O'Flynn (Ind) also somewhat impacted. He will presumably take some Sinn Féin votes as well. It is worth noting that his presence is probably what cost Sinn Féin a council seat in the NE LEA.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,299
Apparently 683 new voter registrations in UCC as part of a campaign to register people there.

As the current boundary runs up Barrack St, Bandon Rd and Glasheen Rd, these are going to be heavily skewed to North Central.

There has been a similar campaign in CIT, but I haven't heard results on numbers. The student population there is larger, but also more skewed towards undergraduates who are likely to register at their home address. Also it is pretty much at the meeting point of SC, NC and NW, so students will be more spread among constituencies.

Could this have an impact in a tight race for the last seat?

It may be stereotyping, but you would see the student vote going more towards Barry, Maher and Moran than any of the Fianna Fáil candidates.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top