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Cork North Central Selection Convention - Thursday 17 June


jacko

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Mar 6, 2009
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Selection Convention is tonight


2 candidates to be selected

3 nominations

Cllr. John Gilroy
Kathleen Lynch T.D.
Cllr. Michael O'Connell
 


jacko

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O'Connell withdrew

Lynch and Gilroy selected for Labour ticket in Cork North Central
 

LgCastell

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I saw on monday cork sth central has named the second running mate - cllr paula desmond - what are her chances of election what is she like?

Not from this constituency so i dont know much about lab strenght here
 

locke

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I don't think she has much of a chance.

She's never been much of a vote-getter. In the last set of Locals, she only polled 12%, despite being the only Labour candidate, the national swing to Labour and a relatively favourable boundary revision (her worst areas in the LEA got shifted to a neighbouring one).

I can't help but feel that it's mainly about the optics of running two, while not putting the existing seat at risk. FG are on a high in the constituency and it wasn't inconceivable that a split Labour ticket may have let them achieve three at Labour's expense.

She has some things going for her
- geographically, she's far-removed from the base of the exiting Labour TD (Ciaran Lynch)
- her name is well known as both her parents represented the area at various times (although this is getting towards 30 years ago now)
- she is one of only two plausible female candidates running

I think her most significant impact may be in deciding who gets which seats in other parties. Because of where she's from, she'll impact on Michael McGrath and Simon Coveney. So, if FF lose a seat, it makes it more likely to be McGrath. If FG fail to gain a seat, it makes it more likely that Coveney will lose his seat to Buttimer.
 

Red_93

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Only saw this thread now.
Good analysis there locke (as usual:)). Desmond would probably be good to have from a policy point of view and has built herself a good organisation, but she's just not a brilliant vote getter - she has a very limited following, in an area where labour should be cleaning up. Hopefully the joining of passage town cllr David O'Byrne will give her a credible running mate and enough of a kick up the ar$e to put in the real work. What you say about labour not wanting to put the seat at risk is not fair though. There really was no-one else - the only other really credible candidate would have been Kingston, and geography is dead set against her.

Back on topic, Gilroy already had the numbers, but O'Connell never stood a chance once he sent letters around reminding everyone of his LE result - that it was the highest in the country of any LP candidate. I think 2 LP seats are possible here - more to do with the ticket than anything else, though boundary changes have made it much tougher. 2FG is much more likely. There is some speculation that Gilroy will out-poll Lynch. While this is possible, I don't see Lynch losing her seat to Gilroy - as the only woman in the constituency and an incumbent TD she will bag transfers all over the shop, and there are also far more transfers from small lefties to be had in her part.
 

locke

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I'm not sure I agree that there were no other credible candidates.

I'd accept that Kingston, Gibbons and Ahern would largely be fishing in the same pool as Lynch, so wouldn't have been an option.

However, you mentioned O'Byrne. He could have made an interesting choice. Blood up a new young challenger. Maybe he wouldn't have made an impact in these elections, but it would have raised his profile for a push at 2 in the Carrigaline LEA in the next Locals.

Then there's Denis O'Flynn. He would have taken a lot of votes that wouldn't have been heading Lynch's way around Mahon and Douglas. He'd also have a high enough profile in Grange and Rochestown that he would have picked up votes there.

But if Labour were really serious about looking for a second seat, they'd have been trying to persuade O'Flynn's brother to throw his hat back in the ring - a man with a national and local profile who might attract in the more policy-minded left-leaning voter.
 

Red_93

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Locke, am I right in saying that, as someone who usually votes labour (You are aren't you?) that you are a little disappointed at the selection of Desmond? You're clearly not a fan of hers. In relation to the O'Flynns, while they wouldn't have made awful candidates - they're ancient. I don't know their exact ages, but I do know that they both have completely white hair, and the age thing (as you know) is a big problem for labour. But at the end of the day, Desmond was the only one who wanted it - no-one else put their name forward, so she was the best we had.
 

locke

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Fundamentally, I don't think there's a second Labour seat in the constituency. In those circumstances, I'd have preferred to have seen a candidate selected with party development in mind.

The selection of Desmond won't have done anything to improve the odds of getting a second seat.

I take your point about the O'Flynn's. The main reason for selecting one of them would be to try to make a push for the second seat, but as I can only see Labour getting 1.4 quotas at best, it probably wouldn't be a good reason to take a more aged candidate.

My preference would probably have been for O'Byrne. I know he isn't long in the party and not much is known of his ability, but he fits the profile of the kind of person Labour needs to be promoting in Cork.

It is somewhat unfortunate that Labour finds itself with two good candidates in the 3-seat Cork South-West, but only one in the 5-seat Cork South Central.

As for my vote... In the past, I have voted Labour, FG, Green and Independent. Labour has been the most frequent recipient though.

I haven't made up my mind about the next election, but my main aim will be to remove FF from government. For that reason I'll be voting tactically to try to reduce them to a single seat. How I do that, I haven't worked out yet, but I suspect it will end up something like this

1. Desmond
2. Boyle
3. Lynch
4. Clune
5. Coveney
6. Buttimer
7. SF Candidate
8. Martin
9. McGrath

With any Independents likely to fit in between Buttimer and the SF candidate, provided it's not an ICP candidate who will go down to last.

The placing of Boyle 2nd is largely tactical to ensure that my vote does not just elect Lynch and die, however, I'm still prepared to give the Greens something of a chance to redeem themselves.

FG and FF candidates are mostly selected in terms f what I think of the individual candidates.
 

Dessie

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Two good candidates in Cork South-West????? Please tell me????? No matter how hard I look I cannot see two!
 

Red_93

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Two good candidates in Cork South-West????? Please tell me????? No matter how hard I look I cannot see two!
Gearoid Buckley and Michael McCarthy. Most recognise Buckley in particular as a good candidate.
 

Dessie

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If Gearoid Buckley is one good candidate, then who is the other??? Or am I missing something here??? There are probably 2 canadidates, but 2 GOOD candidates??? I'm not so sure
 

Red_93

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If Gearoid Buckley is one good candidate, then who is the other??? Or am I missing something here??? There are probably 2 canadidates, but 2 GOOD candidates??? I'm not so sure
I also said Michael McCarthy, but IMO Buckley's better.
 
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I also said Michael McCarthy, but IMO Buckley's better.
You are obviously entitled to your personal opinion. These matters can be subjective at times but objectively Buckley is a town councillor that missed out on a county council seat. McCarthy was a county councillor when Labour support was much lower and is currently a Senator. His previous runs for the Dail will have raised his profile throughout the constituency. Anytime the papers mention the constituency of Cork South West they mention Michael McCarthy as being in with a chance.
 

Blissett

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It would have to be mccarthy for Cork SW, Buckley seems like a reasonable guy, and is very presentable, but doesnt seem to have a huge amount of politics, and seems to go on solo runs down in bandon
 

locke

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It's a bit away from the NC selection convention, so forgive me if this is regarded as off-topic, but I think there may be a case for running both in SW.

Even compared to most rural constituencies, there seems to be a tendency to vote for the local man over a person's party. If nothing else, Buckley could suck up some of the FG and FF votes in Bandon.
 
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I wouldn't have thought a second Labour seat in Cork North Central was a credible proposition until fairly recently. It doesn't seem realistic to suggest FF will retain 2 seats here, meaning CNC will be on the FG 'must win' list, while a Lab gain here would be a tremendous result for them. It has to be a possibility, though, given the national polling trend, Gilroy's own electoral record, and the fact that recent history suggests the FG ticket might not necessarily be on the same page when the time comes. If the FG ticket end up butting heads with each other, a cohesive Lab campaign could well deliver the second seat, although a wild card may yet be Mick Barry of the SP. He's very much based on the city northside, so will be more of a problem for Kathleen Lynch than Gilroy, and, while the smart money says he'll poll well but fall short, I wouldn't write him off. All in all, CNC looks like being a lot more interesting than last time, when it was probably the most predictable contest in the country...
 

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