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Cork North Central


davehiggz

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May 7, 2009
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1,116
Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork North Central First Preference Votes

There are boundary changes in this constituency as laid out in the Constituency Commission Report.

Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour.

FG and Labour's seats are safe however there's no way FF will keep it's two seats. FG and Lab will poll higher this time.

Gerry Kelly is a FG man who closely missed out in 07 and in 02 so he should take a seat this time around.

I predict: 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 Labour.
 


Herodotus

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Feb 9, 2009
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305
Yes he probably will run again. He did so in 2007 but only got 1700 1st pref votes, 4% of the vote.

He did better in the locals sweeping a 1.59 quota.

It remains to be seen though whether he could get into this 4 seater.
He is on an upward curve, he should poll strongly. His transfers could supper FF or FG attempts at second seats.
 

patronsaint

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May 15, 2009
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It's a huge constituency with a strong rural hinterland. I'd expect Barry to do reasonably well but fall far short of being elected. The current Lord Mayor would also be in with a shout ( FG ), but will Allen be running again ? Also, if Labour can do the sensible thing and run a second candidate ( expect resistance from the Lynch dynasty ), Gilroy in Glanmire would be very well placed and would be my tip to knock out one of the two FF chancers this constituency has been lumbered with.
 

bprob

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first preference votes , local elections 2009

RTÉ News: Elections 2009 - Cork City North Central LEA

mick barry polled 26.5% of the first prefs
i'd be very surprised if he doesnt win a seat in the general.
he did poll very well in north central ward, but the ward is only a small part of the north central constituency (which is the whole northside of city plus commuter area north of the city/rural areas).

that won't suit Barry.
he will poll well, but i agree with the initial poster: 2FG, 1FF, 1 Labour.

even though Gerry Kelly is a bit of a gom.

there is talk of FG running current Lord Mayor Daire Murphy as a third candidate, but i don't think he is much better.

only spanner in works for FG here is speculation which was on another thread here that Bernard Allen wouldn't run again. i don't know what the veracity of that is.
 

NotoriousFin

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Jun 22, 2009
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Yes he probably will run again. He did so in 2007 but only got 1700 1st pref votes, 4% of the vote.

He did better in the locals sweeping a 1.59 quota.

It remains to be seen though whether he could get into this 4 seater.
It'd be diluted through the more middle class vote fo Cork City North East and not to mention the rural areas included in the Cork North Central GE area!

CNC LEA is tiny compared to what you'd have in the GE.
 

house

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May 26, 2009
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cork north central now has as many voters in the county as the city. the last general election figures show barry only gets a vote in one city ward (less than 1/6 of a general election electorate). o brien of sinn feinn and davey mac does the same in the north west. none of those 3 will get any vote in the county. the fine gael vote in the county is now the largest in the consitiuency. surely that vote can elect a td on its own. b allen got a great vote last time out in blarney and needs those votes to be safe.dara murphy is doing v well as lord mayor and is the other fg candidate most likely to get a city vote. he is also likely to appeal to traditional fg voters in the county who are more likely to vote along party lines. he is however too much of a threat to bernard allen. it remains to be seen how fg manage their canditates. allen has seat if he keeps murphy off the ticket. the question is can kelly win the 2nd seat. he will be challanged by billy kelleher and gilroy in glanmire and wont secure transfers from the city candidates. he has a good base from the locals however. fg have a seat to loose if they botch candiate selection.
 

pjoz

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Aug 25, 2009
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It's a very interesting constituency, my reading of it would be 1 FF seat, 1 Labour, 1 FG with the final seat a contest between FG, SF and the SP.I believe whoever between SF and the SP is marginally ahead come the final elimination will take the final seat.The FF vote will get 1 TD and the transfers from their 2nd candiate will be all important, I have a strong feeling O Brien of SF could benefit more than Barry and be still ahead come that elimation.The transfer of Barrys vote could then push O Brien over the line in a tight contest with FG for the final seat.The last general election showed he was very transfer friendly with independent and SP candiates and factor in a probable Labour surplus next time round he could be the man for the final seat
 

bprob

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selected results (first preferences) for the last local elections in wards which make up cork north central constituency were as follows (as per RTE):

BARRY, Mick (SP) 2096 in cork north central ward
MURPHY, Dara (FG) 1011 in cork north east ward
O'BRIEN, Jonathan (SF) 1319 in cork north west ward

there were 618 SF votes in cork north central ward, but only 298 SP votes in cork north east ward. that leaves Barry/SP on about 2394 and O'Brien/SF on 1937.

however, if you combine Daire Murphy's local election vote with Gerry Kelly's showing of 3543, you get a total for FG's second candidate of 4554.

that's a long way ahead of Barry and O'Brien.

And FG have gone up a lot in the opinion polls since the last election

i'd say FG would have to completely implode in order not to get a second seat in this constituency. the only question remaining is will Murphy or Kelly get the seat. On these numbers it is Kelly's to lose
 
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essexboy

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Jul 18, 2007
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This is a very strange constituency now. It stretches from Blackpool to Rylane although the residents of these places might as well live on different planets for all they have in common.

I hear BattMan pulled out of opening the new Rylane NS as it was moved out of his constituency: can anyone confirm this?
 
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Canvass_Card

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Feb 1, 2009
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selected results (first preferences) for the last local elections in wards which make up cork north central constituency were as follows (as per RTE):

BARRY, Mick (SP) 2096 in cork north central ward
MURPHY, Dara (FG) 1011 in cork north east ward
O'BRIEN, Jonathan (SF) 1319 in cork north west ward

there were 618 SF votes in cork north central ward, but only 298 SP votes in cork north east ward. that leaves Barry/SP on about 2394 and O'Brien/SF on 1937.

however, if you combine Daire Murphy's local election vote with Gerry Kelly's showing of 3543, you get a total for FG's second candidate of 4554.

that's a long way ahead of Barry and O'Brien.

And FG have gone up a lot in the opinion polls since the last election

i'd say FG would have to completely implode in order not to get a second seat in this constituency. the only question remaining is will Murphy or Kelly get the seat. On these numbers it is Kelly's to lose
But you never added the SF vote from the North east ward and the Blarney ward which are also in CNC GE.

Thats another 1513 votes giving O Brien a total of 3450, still a 1000 votes behind FG but with the WP, SP all likely to transfer to SF far better than FG then it would be closer than you predict.
 

patronsaint

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May 15, 2009
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It's not realistic to simply add up the party vote in the LE's to come to a GE figure. Local support for local candidates, especially in the rural part of the constituency, is a significant factor.
 

Canvass_Card

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Feb 1, 2009
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It's not realistic to simply add up the party vote in the LE's to come to a GE figure. Local support for local candidates, especially in the rural part of the constituency, is a significant factor.
I agree, no way of knowing how this will turn out but if I was a betting man I would say 1FF, 2FG & 1Lab.

Question is who will win the seats. Dara Murphy or Kelly, Gilmore or Lynch, Kelleher or Flynn.
 

monroe99999

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Feb 6, 2009
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I think that there is a chance of a left seat here. It could be either O'Brien or Barry. The city areas are strongly left wing which would counter the traditional party county vote.
1 FF 1 FG and two to play for.
 

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