Cork North West: Call the next GE Results

Casablanca

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Cork North West is, traditionally, one of the most conservative (and predictable) in the country. It returns 2FG-1FF or 2FF-1FG since Adam was a child, with FF holding the upper hand since 1992, bar the period 2011-16.

Presently the incumbents are:

Michael Creed (FG)
Aindreas Moynihan (FF)
Michael Moynihan (FF) (not related)

The demographics of CNW changed in 2007 when Ballincollig(pop: 25K approx) was added to it. This added the personal vote of Batt O'Keeffe into the mix and has secured FF dominance since. FG have targeted this as one to gain and have added the former Independent Cllr ( fourth placed candidate in the last election) John Paul O'Shea to their ticket. To be successful, they need to curb the sitting Minister Michael Creed's personal machine and maximise the urban Ballincollig vote. I think they'll be successful in this with the older sitting FF TD, Michael Moynihan losing out.

Prediction

Michael Creed (FG)
Aindreas Moynihan (FF)
with John Paul O'Shea (FG) pipping Michael Moynihan (FF) for the last one, a FG gain.
 


hollandia

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Cork North West is, traditionally, one of the most conservative (and predictable) in the country. It returns 2FG-1FF or 2FF-1FG since Adam was a child, with FF holding the upper hand since 1992, bar the period 2011-16.

Presently the incumbents are:

Michael Creed (FG)
Aindreas Moynihan (FF)
Michael Moynihan (FF) (not related)

The demographics of CNW changed in 2007 when Ballincollig(pop: 25K approx) was added to it. This added the personal vote of Batt O'Keeffe into the mix and has secured FF dominance since. FG have targeted this as one to gain and have added the former Independent Cllr ( fourth placed candidate in the last election) John Paul O'Shea to their ticket. To be successful, they need to curb the sitting Minister Michael Creed's personal machine and maximise the urban Ballincollig vote. I think they'll be successful in this with the older sitting FF TD, Michael Moynihan losing out.

Prediction

Michael Creed (FG)
Aindreas Moynihan (FF)
with John Paul O'Shea (FG) pipping Michael Moynihan (FF) for the last one, a FG gain.
SF have selected Martha Lyons to run in CNW, while the SDs will announce on November 30th. (via Adrian kavanagh)

Candidates for the next (2018-2021) General Election by constituency | Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses
 

Casablanca

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hollandia

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I think the area is a long-term target for SF which is surprising give that Ballincollig is a strong SF area and, of course, Liath Ni Riada is a native of the Gaeltacht area. However I can't see beyond 2FG 1FF at the moment.
Three seaters are always difficult to break. There's an argument to be made for regularising the number of seats per constituency.

16% will get you in in a five seater, that rises to 20% in four seater and 25% is needed in a three seater. This disproportionately favours FF and FG.
 

'orebel

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I think the area is a long-term target for SF which is surprising give that Ballincollig is a strong SF area and, of course, Liath Ni Riada is a native of the Gaeltacht area. However I can't see beyond 2FG 1FF at the moment.
I thought a good showing by NR in the presidential election could have set her up for a dáil seat here but it's hard to see beyond the FFG stranglehold considering the result.
 

locke

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It's very hard to disagree with what anyone has written here, except the idea that the result will be decided in Ballincollig. I think the two TDs from the southern portion of the constituency are safe and will lock up that vote, with some leakage to Sinn Fein.

The battle is in the rural area from Millstreet to Charleville, and if ever there was an area that was certain to veer towards FG and FF in its vote...
 

locke

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No

I think FG will gain from FF.

They are up in the polls nationally and Michael Moynihan's vote has seen a slow, steady decline.
 

Krusty Cork

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It will be interesting to see how O'Shea does for FG

He did well in the last election but that was a good election for Independents

O'Shea got votes as he wasn't in a mainstream party and was transfer friendly

Him declaring for FG has put a lot of people off voting for him but then again he will gain FG votes he wouldn't have bar transfers the last time
 

locke

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You'd have to presume that Collins has been jettisoned. The danger is that some of her vote won't cross over to O'Shea if there's any bitterness over it. The risk is more people not voting though, as in a constituency like Cork NW, where there are no real credible small party candidates, once that voter has made the polling station, the vote tends to come home after a few transfers.

I still reckon that the four election trend in Moynihan's first preference vote is significant though. He's not been attracting new voters. Unless FF can pull off a miracle of vote management, I can only see him losing out. If I was Aindrias Moynihan, I wouldn't tolerate the risk.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

midlander12

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O'Shea was only 300 votes short last time as an indo and even though he will lose some of his 'anti-party' support, you'd have to rate his chances in the context of an overall increase in the FG vote which was down to 32% last time but has traditionally been over 40% in the past. FF were immensely fortunate last time to take 2 with 34% and any significant increase in the FG vote would leave their second seat very vulnerable. Having said that, FG never took a second seat between 1992 and 2011 so I wouldn't bet the house on it. But on balance FG 2, FF 1.

Not that it matters much tonight - no election till Spring/Summer 2020.
 

locke

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You have to be a bit careful when it comes to looking at old constituency results. The addition of Ballincollig changed everything. CNW used to be known as one of the most conservative constituencies in the country, but now it’s decidedly midd table. It’s also just about opened the possibility of a left-oriented seat (Labour were only 1,100 votes short in 2011), but with the same boundaries it’s still probably 15 years off.

Of course, the boundaries do need addressing as they have become silly to try to preserve the current constituencies (travel from Murragh in the extreme south of CNW to Charleville in the north and you have to pass through all other constituencies en route). Eventually, CNW will have to be carved apart with an extra seat for each of Cork SW, Cork E and one of Cork SC or Cork NC.
 


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