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Cork SC - FG Poll


adamirer

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FF shaky in key district, says FG poll - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

FF's support is now gauged at just 22pc, with FG rated at 40pc and Labour at 26pc.

FG took two seats -- Simon Coveney and Deirdre Clune -- while Labour won back a seat with Ciaran Lynch.

Now, the FG poll indicates that the Labour Party has a chance of making history by taking a second seat in the key Cork constituency, with FF facing the threat of holding just one.

Mr Martin looks set to take the third seat, with his colleague Mr McGrath (8pc) facing a desperate battle to hold his.

He is running almost 4pc behind Labour's Cork County Council member, Cllr Paula Desmond, who was last week added to the party's two-person CSC ticket.

Another problem for FF is that FG is also expected to run a powerful third candidate, Senator Jerry Buttimer (8pc), who narrowly missed out on taking a Dail seat in 2007.
 

gijoe

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The poll as written is inconsistent. We are told that FG are on 40% and that Coveney topped the poll on 15% but with Buttimer on 8% that leaves Deirdre Clune on 17%??
 

adamirer

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always dubious about pary polls... but good news for Lab I guess.
 

adamirer

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The poll as written is inconsistent. We are told that FG are on 40% and that Coveney topped the poll on 15% but with Buttimer on 8% that leaves Deirdre Clune on 17%??
4 candidates? one sweeper for 3 challengers?????
 

LgCastell

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it'll be interesting because there will be so many votes floating around with the PDs and greens gone and alot of dissatisfied FFers looking for homes ....lets say martin, lynch, clune and coveney all safe the last between desmond/buttimer/mcgrath
 

gijoe

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it'll be interesting because there will be so many votes floating around with the PDs and greens gone and alot of dissatisfied FFers looking for homes ....lets say martin, lynch, clune and coveney all safe the last between desmond/buttimer/mcgrath
IF that poll were accurate there would be no argument on the destination of the last seat. It would go to Paula Desmond.
 

cricket

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While it's a party poll , only 500 polled and we could be a while from an election ( though I'd say we'll have one early in new year ) , it still has to be disappointing news for Buttimer. One FF seat only now looks the likely outcome.
 

dotski_w_

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always dubious about pary polls... but good news for Lab I guess.
it's pretty close to an average swing, but yes the good split of the LP vote suggests that this Lp gain is a lot safer than some of this parish are suggesting. Overall it's very consistent enough with what the average spreadsheet projections are saying (well, within the 5% m.o.e.) - remarkably so, in fact, so it looks genuine enough to me.

As for why it's been leaked, I would presume the source is close to Buttimer, as FG's (very faint) hopes of getting a seat on these figures requires a lot of Coveney votes to switch to him (and for LP to do significantly worse)

Further analysis at Southern Comfort « Irish Polling Report
 

dotski_w_

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The poll as written is inconsistent. We are told that FG are on 40% and that Coveney topped the poll on 15% but with Buttimer on 8% that leaves Deirdre Clune on 17%??
Or a 4th FG candidate - was there not a pre-leak of this somewhere else the other day that had a 4th FG candidate (Healy or someone?) on 4-5%?

I didn't blog on it at the time as the figures were more partial, and it was from someone I'd never heard of quoting someone else they didn't name ...
 

pitcairn78

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Or a 4th FG candidate - was there not a pre-leak of this somewhere else the other day that had a 4th FG candidate (Healy or someone?) on 4-5%?

I didn't blog on it at the time as the figures were more partial, and it was from someone I'd never heard of quoting someone else they didn't name ...
The Evening Echo reported on the poll on Friday evening and included some extra figures.

The fourth Fine Gael member is City Councillor Des Cahill and they had him at 5% which would tally with the overall Fine Gael number. Since the poll was taken City Councillor Laura McGonigle announced she is also seeking the nomination to run so I'm not sure how that would affect the numbers.

Also on 5% is Sinn Fein (Either City Councillor Chris O'Leary or Cllr Henry Cremin) and the Greens (Senator Dan Boyle).

The echo quoted Michael McGrath saying he was under no illusions that he is facing the loss of his seat.
 

dotski_w_

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The Evening Echo reported on the poll on Friday evening and included some extra figures.

The fourth Fine Gael member is City Councillor Des Cahill and they had him at 5% which would tally with the overall Fine Gael number. Since the poll was taken City Councillor Laura McGonigle announced she is also seeking the nomination to run so I'm not sure how that would affect the numbers.

Also on 5% is Sinn Fein (Either City Councillor Chris O'Leary or Cllr Henry Cremin) and the Greens (Senator Dan Boyle).

The echo quoted Michael McGrath saying he was under no illusions that he is facing the loss of his seat.
It's not good for McGrath alright. If they were in the mid-to-high 20s and he was on 8% he could use it top persuade Martin voters to move to him in the hope of taking 2 seats, but with them off the agenda it makes it a straight fight between himself and Martin for one seat, and him very much in second place.

I presume Buttimer would be using this to try to persuade FG voters to switch to him. It does seem odd, though that Cahill was in a poll commissioned by FG if he's unlikely to make the ticket..... who else on the FG ticket would he be geographically close to, do you know?
 

biteback

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Very disappointing I'm sure for FG that Labour are more likely to take the 2nd FF seat.
 

KingKane

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Very disappointing I'm sure for FG that Labour are more likely to take the 2nd FF seat.
Err..hate to burst that Labour bubble but if there are transfers coming to Buttimer from Cahill then he's be close enough to Desmond after that and it would come down to whether or not McGrath's transfers trended more to Labour than FG. That is the more likely scenario but it's not guaranteed especially if geography is a factor in what votes do transfer and if Martin needs transfers to ensure his own election.

Just to bring all those numbers together

Coveney 15%
Lynch 14.5%
Martin 14%
Clune 12%
Desmond 12%
McGrath 8%
Buttimer 8%
Cahill 5%
SF 5%
Green 5%

Others? 1.5 %

but remember it's a constituency poll with likely +/- 5% of a margin of error.

Updated
 
Last edited:

dotski_w_

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Very disappointing I'm sure for FG that Labour are more likely to take the 2nd FF seat.

yes, particularly as there'll be floating FG/LP voters who could go for either - presumably they'll be more likely to give Desmond the nod after they've read this. It'll also encourage LP in similar constituencies.

I can only presume it's someone close to Buttimer who leaded it, as it's slightly in his interest to leak it, it clearly isn't in Fine Gael's as a whole (Coveney in particular I'd imagine would be furious at this making the public domain.....)
 

dotski_w_

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Err..hate to burst that Labour bubble but if there are transfers coming to Buttimer from Cahill then he's be close enough to Desmond after that and it would come down to whether or not McGrath's transfers trended more to Labour than FG. That is the more likely scenario but it's not guaranteed especially if geography is a factor in what votes do transfer and if Martin needs transfers to ensure his own election.

Just to bring all those numbers together

Coveney 15%
Lynch 14.5%
Martin 12%
Clune 12%
Desmond 12%
McGrath 8%
Buttimer 8%
Cahill 5%

Others? 13.5 % Is there more info on SF and Greens?

but remember it's a constituency poll with likely +/- 5% of a margin of error.
If you'd clicked any of the links (or read Pitcairn's post) you'd know it has GP and SF on 5% each. that's a 2nd LP seat without significant FF surplus or FG leaked votes. You'd also know that Martin is on 14% (22% FF minus 8% McGrath)

It's also very close to uniform swing, so it confirms national trends.

Although I can see why you'd be slow to take as read anything coming from FG at the moment ... ;)
 

KingKane

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If you'd clicked any of the links (or read Pitcairn's post) you'd know it has GP and SF on 5% each. that's a 2nd LP seat without significant FF surplus or FG leaked votes. You'd also know that Martin is on 14% (22% FF minus 8% McGrath)

It's also very close to uniform swing, so it confirms national trends.

Although I can see why you'd be slow to take as read anything coming from FG at the moment ... ;)
:roll: true!
 

myksav

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FF shaky in key district, says FG poll - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

"AN internal Fine Gael poll has shown that Fianna Fail is poised for record losses in a key marginal constituency."


But lads, didn't Enda say just the other day that Fine Gael don't take account of polls, that the only poll is the one on election day?

Oh wait, it's an internal Fine Gael poll.

Yez are making a liar out of Enda, stop it.
 
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