Cork South-Central: call the next GE results

statsman

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A thread for informed discussion of the probable results, the plan being to use the main thread to amalgamate and make an overall GE prediction. See here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The original big-hitter constituency, in 2016 Cork S_C returned 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF, including the leader of FF and the Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Here's the 2016 first prefs breakdown.

  • McGrath, Michael elected 21.18% FF
  • Martin, Micheál elected 20.38% FF
  • Coveney, Simon elected 14.30% FG
  • Ó Laoghaire, Donnchadh elected 12.55% SF
  • Buttimer, Jerry not-elected 11.53% FG
  • Lynch, Ciarán eliminated 4.34% Lab
  • Finn, Mick eliminated 4.27% Indo
  • Bogue, Lorna eliminated 3.71% Green
  • Ryan, Fiona eliminated 1.68% SP
  • Kenneally, Ciarán eliminated 1.59% Renua
  • Ó Cadhla, Diarmaid eliminated 1.56% Indo
  • O'Connell, Jim eliminated 1.43% PBP
  • Harris, Joe eliminated 0.63% Indo
  • Hourihane, Elizabeth eliminated 0.55% Indo
  • Mohally, Michael Joseph eliminated 0.31% Indo


Hard to see any changes.
 
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'orebel

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Can see Coveney increasing his share. No idea at whose expense though.
 

'orebel

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Buttimer?
Possibly but I wouldn't bet on it. McGrath and himself vying for local vote in Carrigaline so perhaps a bit there too. He's been strong on Brexit so I assume he'd hope to pick up some votes based on that performance. (Assuming he remains strong on it up to a GE)
Don't know how solid SFs seat is.
 

statsman

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Possibly but I wouldn't bet on it. McGrath and himself vying for local vote in Carrigaline so perhaps a bit there too. He's been strong on Brexit so I assume he'd hope to pick up some votes based on that performance. (Assuming he remains strong on it up to a GE)
Don't know how solid SFs seat is.
He's very high profile, so you'd expect him to do well. If FF are having an off day he could pick up some of their votes, I suppose.
 

'orebel

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He's very high profile, so you'd expect him to do well. If FF are having an off day he could pick up some of their votes, I suppose.
I don't think FF will drop much here.
 

Casablanca

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Along with Cork SW and Cork NW, FG will be targeting an extra seat here, but in this case it's hard to see it happening.

CorK SC was reduced to a 4 seater in 2011 with Buttimer losing out and SF taking the old Labour seat held by the likes of Eileen Desmond And Toddy O'Sullivan with decades. Buttimer is further constricted by the fact that some of his home base in Bishopstown was moved to Cork North Central. An Independent Mick Finn may run and the Greens have declared a candidate as well, Lorna Bogue, in what was Dan Boyle stomping ground.

Prediction: The 3 "big beasts" of Martin, Coveney and McGrath will return with the final seat being fought over by Ó Laoghaire (SF) and Buttimer (FG). Unless FG are on a roll, there's enough of a left-leaning vote in the Greens, Lab and Independents to secure the seat for SF.

No change.
 

locke

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I think probably no change, but I think there will be more candidates in the mix for the last seat.

Coveney, McGrath and Martin are safe unless Coveney tries to give too many votes to Buttimer.

Ó Laoghaire looks best placed for the last seat, but Buttimer will be thereabouts too. There is potential for a Labour, Green, Social Democrat challenger to get in the mix, but the candidate must be right. For Labour, Ciarán Lynch has name recognition, but I don't think there's much enthusiasm and he hasn't done much since he lost his seat; Peter Horgan their LE candidate in the SE LEA seems more dynamic, so if he can get on the council it will help him. Last time, The Greens ran Lorna Bogue; I think she's matured a lot since then, but like Horgan, needs an elected platform. Mick Finn, the sitting Independent Lord Mayor, will poll well too and will have a higher profile across the city this time. Fiona Ryan, who ran for AAA-PBP last time is one of the most impressive city councillors and is still quite young, but will suffer from representing an LEA on the other side of the city.

So, I expect a tightish fight between Ó Laoghaire, Buttimer and whichever of those others comes out highest, but probably Ó Laoghaire to retain.

FG should run a sweeper candidate based in Douglas/Rochestown/Blacrock (Cahill, McGonigle, Forde), but won't.
 

locke

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So it seems that PBP have selected Ed Fitzgerald (Can't say I've ever heard of him) to contest this constituency this time out.

I'm not au fait with what goes on inside the name-changing alphabet soup of minor left-wing parties, but does that mean that Fiona Ryan won't be running (she was previously part of the Socialist Party/AAA/Solidarity part of the alliance)? As mentioned, I think she's one of the better city councilors.

Or is it the case that PBP select a candidate, Solidarity select a candidate, and then at alliance talks they settle on a preferred candidate for a constituency?
 

cricket

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So it seems that PBP have selected Ed Fitzgerald (Can't say I've ever heard of him) to contest this constituency this time out.

I'm not au fait with what goes on inside the name-changing alphabet soup of minor left-wing parties, but does that mean that Fiona Ryan won't be running (she was previously part of the Socialist Party/AAA/Solidarity part of the alliance)? As mentioned, I think she's one of the better city councilors.

Or is it the case that PBP select a candidate, Solidarity select a candidate, and then at alliance talks they settle on a preferred candidate for a constituency?
Think they make a selection by a game of rock paper scissors.
 

automaticforthepeople

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Buttimer is apparently annoyed at Howlin for calling to his supporters to back the Greens or Soc Dems. Seems Jerry thought that at one stage there was little between himself and Ciarán Lynch.

As you were with no difference in the representation.
 

locke

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Probably

Sinn Féin under pressure, but probably good to hold, with the centre-left vote too split and Buttimer failing to grow his vote around Douglas/Blackrock.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

the secretary

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Probably

Sinn Féin under pressure, but probably good to hold, with the centre-left vote too split and Buttimer failing to grow his vote around Douglas/Blackrock.
This constituency has to be a FG target.
 

midlander12

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You'd have to think with Coveney's virtual canonisation over Brexit, that there was some chance that he might have enough of a surplus to bring in Buttimer?
 


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