Cork South-Central: call the next GE results

the secretary

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You'd have to think with Coveney's virtual canonisation over Brexit, that there was some chance that he might have enough of a surplus to bring in Buttimer?
I would have thought that.
This is the kinda seat they need to win.
 


Mr. Jones

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Cork South Central sums up the FG party. Buttimer is a decent guy but he is beyond left wing. Coveney is loved by the media but for the most part that's all that matters to him. He stands for nothing. Is there any new blood coming through at all for FG in CSS?
 

Texal Tom

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i am a floating voter but will never vote fg again due to their hardline pro abortion views. if 1/3 of the population voted against abortion and fg are delivering a regime that is shocking to some yes voters it would be reasonable to assume that fg will lose some of the people who voted for them in the last election. and this will have an impact on them in tight areas - so my prediction is that butimer will not get elected
 

statsman

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i am a floating voter but will never vote fg again due to their hardline pro abortion views. if 1/3 of the population voted against abortion and fg are delivering a regime that is shocking to some yes voters it would be reasonable to assume that fg will lose some of the people who voted for them in the last election. and this will have an impact on them in tight areas - so my prediction is that butimer will not get elected
My own view is that abortion will not be a GE issue.
 

locke

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Cork South Central sums up the FG party. Buttimer is a decent guy but he is beyond left wing. Coveney is loved by the media but for the most part that's all that matters to him. He stands for nothing. Is there any new blood coming through at all for FG in CSS?
Not really.

They won’t run someone from the county side.

In the city, they have four councilors. One is Buttimer’s brother and the other a crony.

The two remaining councilors are Des Cahill and Laura McGonigle. There is a case for running one of them for geographic reasons, and a case for running McGonigle for gender reasons, but I don’t think either would pull in more than 3,000 to 4,000 votes. They fish in the same pool as Micheál Martin, which makes their task harder. However, they aren’t going to unseat a FF TD (it didn’t happen in 2011, so it’s not happening now), and reducing FF’s vote is of limited benefit in attacking Sinn Féin. The best can be said is that they may take a few Sinn Féin votes around Mahon.

The one to watch for the future is Peter Horgan of Labour, but it will be the election after next at the earliest before Labour can become credible in the constituency.
 

statsman

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It has never been, even during the fraught times of the 80's when you had 3 GE's in 18 months. I canvassed hard in all three and cannot remember it ever being brought up.
Indeed.
 

wombat

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It has never been, even during the fraught times of the 80's when you had 3 GE's in 18 months. I canvassed hard in all three and cannot remember it ever being brought up.
I had it brought up once in 2011 when I reassured an old man that Kenny would never introduce it - he made a liar of me.
 

hiding behind a poster

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FG should run a sweeper candidate based in Douglas/Rochestown/Blacrock (Cahill, McGonigle, Forde), but won't.
I don't know the geography of Cork SC that well, but to me the place for a sweeper is wherever O'Laoghaire is - which is where?
 

hiding behind a poster

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You'd have to think with Coveney's virtual canonisation over Brexit, that there was some chance that he might have enough of a surplus to bring in Buttimer?
More votes, yes, but not enough for a surplus, certainly not a meaningful one. Anyway it's better to move No.1s directly to the second candidate, they're worth more that way.
 

locke

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I don't know the geography of Cork SC that well, but to me the place for a sweeper is wherever O'Laoghaire is - which is where?
Lehenaghmore/Togher

Togher wouldn't be fertile territory for FG and Lehenaghmore wouldn't be much better. Labour were traditionally strong round Togher and a rebound for them would help FG. I have no idea who they are running though. Ciarán Lynch, the former TD was from the area, but long ago moved to the Maryborough area of Douglas. Peter Horgan is the only person listed as a Local Area Rep in Cork SC, but he is from Blackrock/Mahon area.

Buttimer is from Bishopstown, which is right next to both areas, so he kind of covers them anyway.

I do think it's worth noting that with the exception of the high-point 2011 election, any time FG won two seats in the constituency one was from the Blackrock/Douglas/Rochestown area. That was always a stronger area for FG than Bishopstown/Wilton where there was a stronger FF vote.
 
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cricket

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Jaysus, I've heard everything now. Over on the peoples republic website, they are reporting on some kiss-my-ass function this weekend that attracts all who consider themselves the hoi polloi of Cork society. There are dozens of awards handed out, the most friendly butcher, the most glamorous hairdresser, you get the drift. Anyway, who got the award for politician of the year ?
Why, Jerry Buttimer of course.
 

statsman

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Jaysus, I've heard everything now. Over on the peoples republic website, they are reporting on some kiss-my-ass function this weekend that attracts all who consider themselves the hoi polloi of Cork society. There are dozens of awards handed out, the most friendly butcher, the most glamorous hairdresser, you get the drift. Anyway, who got the award for politician of the year ?
Why, Jerry Buttimer of course.
Interesting indeed.
 

locke

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Jaysus, I've heard everything now. Over on the peoples republic website, they are reporting on some kiss-my-ass function this weekend that attracts all who consider themselves the hoi polloi of Cork society. There are dozens of awards handed out, the most friendly butcher, the most glamorous hairdresser, you get the drift. Anyway, who got the award for politician of the year ?
Why, Jerry Buttimer of course.
Those kind of awards are for those who believe themselves to be the city's great and good to give themselves awards. The awards tend to stick to the inner circle. Funnily enough, the inner circle never actually includes the city's real power-brokers like the City Manager, President of UCC, representatives from MNCs etc.

I suppose one thing you may be able to say for Buttimer is that as a Senator, he has more time to work the ground than a TD, especially compared to Coveney, Martin and to a lesser extent McGrath, who all have significant national commitments. It always bugs me to think of a constituency senator though. It undermines what senators are supposed to do.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Lehenaghmore/Togher

Togher wouldn't be fertile territory for FG and Lehenaghmore wouldn't be much better. Labour were traditionally strong round Togher and a rebound for them would help FG. I have no idea who they are running though. Ciarán Lynch, the former TD was from the area, but long ago moved to the Maryborough area of Douglas. Peter Horgan is the only person listed as a Local Area Rep in Cork SC, but he is from Blackrock/Mahon area.

Buttimer is from Bishopstown, which is right next to both areas, so he kind of covers them anyway.

I do think it's worth noting that with the exception of the high-point 2011 election, any time FG won two seats in the constituency one was from the Blackrock/Douglas/Rochestown area. That was always a stronger area for FG than Bishopstown/Wilton where there was a stronger FF vote.
Thanks, I'm not saying it needs to be a strong area for FG to run a sweeper there, my point is that doing so might pull the SF vote down a bit, and help Buttimer get ahead of O'Laoghaire.
 

cricket

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Those kind of awards are for those who believe themselves to be the city's great and good to give themselves awards. The awards tend to stick to the inner circle. Funnily enough, the inner circle never actually includes the city's real power-brokers like the City Manager, President of UCC, representatives from MNCs etc.

I suppose one thing you may be able to say for Buttimer is that as a Senator, he has more time to work the ground than a TD, especially compared to Coveney, Martin and to a lesser extent McGrath, who all have significant national commitments. It always bugs me to think of a constituency senator though. It undermines what senators are supposed to do.
Buttimer seems like Cork's very own Willie O'Dea, although I don't think he attends as many funerals.
As for those involved in the awards ceremonies, incestuous is the most apt description of that circle.
 


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