Cork South-Central: call the next GE results

locke

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May 2, 2007
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3,173
McGrath has the same Willie O'Dea thing going on, so that undermines Buttimer a bit. Although McGrath mistakenly believes that the constituency ends at the Fingerpost roundabout.

I don't think anything has changed nationally or locally to change my mind. FG's local election selection maybe makes a few things clearer. Laura McGonigle has decided to step back from politics (although her council attendance of late suggests she's already taking that step), so if FG does decide to tactically run a third candidate, it really restricts them to Cahill and Forde. Shane O'Callaghan their candidate in the South Central ward is best placed to attack Ó Laoghaire, but he's really an unknown and didn't cover himself in glory at the last locals. Maybe it could raise his profile for the locals.
 


midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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5,783
On further reflection I agree with the other posters who expect the status quo here. FG's vote in 2011 here was only 34%, and even taking into account the disappearance of the Labour vote, they're not likely to improve much on that. It won't be enough to take 2, particularly with Martin and McGrath certain of reelection and the a combined left vote of 25-30%. I would just add the caveat that this is the sort of constituency where FG have to gain seats if they are to match recent poll ratings. FF 2, FG 1, SF 1
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,059
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,173
So after the local elections, what are people's thoughts?

FF still seem nailed on for two as a party, even if they had weaker candidates, and they have strong candidates.

And obviously FG get one.

But that last seat is awkward.

Sinn Fein had an awful set of locals. In the area covered, they won 1 1/2 seats from 21 1/2 (I'm counting the SW LEA for half as it's only partially in the constituency).

Can FG capitalise on Sinn Fein's weakness. They didn't cover themselves in glory either. Although they managed to take the same number of seats as FF, they were behind them in every LEA apart from the partially included SW. They were significantly behind in SC and Carrigaline.

And what of the Greens? They picked up a seat in all of the city LEAs and came close in Carrigaline, where the Independent Marcia D'Alton is a Green in all but name. However, their vote still looks a bit shy and there's a question of whether people would carry that vote into a General Election. I think it may depend on candidate. While their candidate last time out, Lorna Bogue, has been elected to the council and has matured a bit, Dan Boyle may be a safer pair of hands.

Labour are too far off the pace, as are smaller parties, and while there are Independents who would take a couple of thousand votes, there's no candidate who looks capable of winning a seat.

It seems that last seat could be between FG, SF and The Greens, with good arguments why each of them wouldn't win it.
 


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