Cork South-Central: call the next GE results

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
McGrath has the same Willie O'Dea thing going on, so that undermines Buttimer a bit. Although McGrath mistakenly believes that the constituency ends at the Fingerpost roundabout.

I don't think anything has changed nationally or locally to change my mind. FG's local election selection maybe makes a few things clearer. Laura McGonigle has decided to step back from politics (although her council attendance of late suggests she's already taking that step), so if FG does decide to tactically run a third candidate, it really restricts them to Cahill and Forde. Shane O'Callaghan their candidate in the South Central ward is best placed to attack Ó Laoghaire, but he's really an unknown and didn't cover himself in glory at the last locals. Maybe it could raise his profile for the locals.
 


midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,449
On further reflection I agree with the other posters who expect the status quo here. FG's vote in 2011 here was only 34%, and even taking into account the disappearance of the Labour vote, they're not likely to improve much on that. It won't be enough to take 2, particularly with Martin and McGrath certain of reelection and the a combined left vote of 25-30%. I would just add the caveat that this is the sort of constituency where FG have to gain seats if they are to match recent poll ratings. FF 2, FG 1, SF 1
 

statsman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,054
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
So after the local elections, what are people's thoughts?

FF still seem nailed on for two as a party, even if they had weaker candidates, and they have strong candidates.

And obviously FG get one.

But that last seat is awkward.

Sinn Fein had an awful set of locals. In the area covered, they won 1 1/2 seats from 21 1/2 (I'm counting the SW LEA for half as it's only partially in the constituency).

Can FG capitalise on Sinn Fein's weakness. They didn't cover themselves in glory either. Although they managed to take the same number of seats as FF, they were behind them in every LEA apart from the partially included SW. They were significantly behind in SC and Carrigaline.

And what of the Greens? They picked up a seat in all of the city LEAs and came close in Carrigaline, where the Independent Marcia D'Alton is a Green in all but name. However, their vote still looks a bit shy and there's a question of whether people would carry that vote into a General Election. I think it may depend on candidate. While their candidate last time out, Lorna Bogue, has been elected to the council and has matured a bit, Dan Boyle may be a safer pair of hands.

Labour are too far off the pace, as are smaller parties, and while there are Independents who would take a couple of thousand votes, there's no candidate who looks capable of winning a seat.

It seems that last seat could be between FG, SF and The Greens, with good arguments why each of them wouldn't win it.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,449
The LE results here were all over the place with very strong Indos gaining from all parties, so the actual party vote is probably very little help in attempting to predict the GE (approx FF 27%; FG 23%, Greens 11%, SF 9%, Oths 18%).

Given Martin's and McGrath's separate power bases it is impossible to see both not being returned. FG on the other hand fared abysmally in the locals and they have been struggling here for years for all Coveney's fancy footwork on Brexit. I don't believe they have much if any hope of taking 2. So who will take the last seat? SF seem to be out for the count and there is no Indo strong enough individually, so it looks like the Greens in the current climate - I presume Dan Boyle will be the candidate?

FF 2, FG 1, Greens 1
 

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,347
The LE results here were all over the place with very strong Indos gaining from all parties, so the actual party vote is probably very little help in attempting to predict the GE (approx FF 27%; FG 23%, Greens 11%, SF 9%, Oths 18%).

Given Martin's and McGrath's separate power bases it is impossible to see both not being returned. FG on the other hand fared abysmally in the locals and they have been struggling here for years for all Coveney's fancy footwork on Brexit. I don't believe they have much if any hope of taking 2. So who will take the last seat? SF seem to be out for the count and there is no Indo strong enough individually, so it looks like the Greens in the current climate - I presume Dan Boyle will be the candidate?

FF 2, FG 1, Greens 1
You think SF will lose out here?
On what basis?
 

MOSS1

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2016
Messages
530
The LE results here were all over the place with very strong Indos gaining from all parties, so the actual party vote is probably very little help in attempting to predict the GE (approx FF 27%; FG 23%, Greens 11%, SF 9%, Oths 18%).

Given Martin's and McGrath's separate power bases it is impossible to see both not being returned. FG on the other hand fared abysmally in the locals and they have been struggling here for years for all Coveney's fancy footwork on Brexit. I don't believe they have much if any hope of taking 2. So who will take the last seat? SF seem to be out for the count and there is no Indo strong enough individually, so it looks like the Greens in the current climate - I presume Dan Boyle will be the candidate?

FF 2, FG 1, Greens 1
No. Lorna Bogue is the Green candidate, Dan Boyle has left politics. He won a seat for them here in 2002 but I would think they're 3rd favourites for the last seat. FG have designs on a 2nd seat here but Jeremiah Buttimer really should be running in Cork NC after the boundary changes before the 2016 election. I think it would have to be a very good day for them to win 2 seats. Donnacha O Laoghaire is probably one of the more embedded SF TDs and might just hold on.
 

the secretary

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,347
No. Lorna Bogue is the Green candidate, Dan Boyle has left politics. He won a seat for them here in 2002 but I would think they're 3rd favourites for the last seat. FG have designs on a 2nd seat here but Jeremiah Buttimer really should be running in Cork NC after the boundary changes before the 2016 election. I think it would have to be a very good day for them to win 2 seats. Donnacha O Laoghaire is probably one of the more embedded SF TDs and might just hold on.
I would have thought so.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
Dan Boyle is still involved in politics as a city councilor, but Bogue is the candidate.

I think Boyle would have just shaded the seat if he had been the candidate.

Bogue is a hard one to call. At the last General Election, she came across as too angry and with all the problems identified, but not enough solutions. She seems to have matured a lot as a politician since then and I thought she had a good campaign in the Locals. However, she probably hasn't been on the council long enough to raise her profile to a point where she can take the seat.

Overall, Martin and McGrath are certainties. They have enough of a personal vote to add to Fianna Fáil that there is no danger, even if FF have a lousy election. Remember that they both retained in FF's disaster election of 2011 (although hit was a 5-seat constituency then).

Coveney is only in trouble if he tries to split a vote that isn't there.

It's very hard to call the last seat. Sinn Féin had a particularly rotten performance in the locals in 2 of the 3 LEAs that make up the bulk of the constituency. However, Ó Laoghaire is quite likeable, popular and capable, certainly more so than any of their council candidates (although Kerins isn't that bad). His vote will hold up better than some may expect.

Buttimer is a ship that sailed a long time ago. I really can't see him getting elected. FG would have been better served by a candidate from the Douglas/Blackrock/Rochestown area.

I think there is a wildcard in this and that is Independent county councilor Marcia D'Alton. She took 2K votes in the Carrigaline LEA in the locals and she used to also represent half of the SE LEA before boundary changes. She gew up within the SC LEA. If she ran, she would take close to 4K votes and in a split field with the Greens, Sinn Féin, and Buttimer all polling around the 5K-6K mark, she could slip through on transfers from other Independents and small parties. However, she hasn't run for the Dáil previously and I have heard no indication that she wants to do so.

Gut feeling is that if it's just Bogue, Buttimer and Ó Laoghaire in the shake up for the last seat, that Ó Laoghaire would just retain.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
Buttimer's task has just been made a lot harder by the election date.

It clashes with the Ireland v Wales rugby match in the Aviva.

Considering the profile of rugby supporters and that Cork South Central is a long-term rugby stronghold, there are going to be a lot of Fine Gael supporters who won't be voting now.

I reckon this could be a net 250 votes down for Fine Gael v Sinn Féin and maybe 200 or so compared to the Greens.

I would imagine this does them no favours in Limerick City either.
 

Round tower

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 9, 2011
Messages
8,477
Buttimer's task has just been made a lot harder by the election date.

It clashes with the Ireland v Wales rugby match in the Aviva.

Considering the profile of rugby supporters and that Cork South Central is a long-term rugby stronghold, there are going to be a lot of Fine Gael supporters who won't be voting now.

I reckon this could be a net 250 votes down for Fine Gael v Sinn Féin and maybe 200 or so compared to the Greens.

I would imagine this does them no favours in Limerick City either.
With a 2.15 KO and PB open from 7am to 10pm their is plenty of time for rugby people who want to vote and go to the rugby match
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
With a 2.15 KO and PB open from 7am to 10pm their is plenty of time for rugby people who want to vote and go to the rugby match
You can reckon on the day out taking 12+ hours between transport, parking or gettin across from Heuston, and giving a bit of margin. It’s certainly possible to vote, especially before heading to Dublin, but only for the determined voter.
 

runwiththewind

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Messages
12,736
Their vote slumped in the LE's and they have a strong challenge on the left from the Greens.
O' laoghaire will retain his seat. I don't see any changes here with the sitting TD's being retuned.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
Late change for Labour as Peter Horgan, who they have been grooming for a run for a few years, has decided late that he isn't going to. He is apparently going to run for the Seanad.

Their candidate will be Ciara Kennedy, who was their local election candidate in SW. While Labour never really looked in the running for a seat, it will be an uphill struggle for her as most of the SW LEA lies outside the constituency (in either CNC or CNW), so name recognition won't be fantastic.

Possibly a slight spanner in the works for Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire as she lives in Lehenaghmore, an area that he has always had to himself.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
I think there is a wildcard in this and that is Independent county councilor Marcia D'Alton. She took 2K votes in the Carrigaline LEA in the locals and she used to also represent half of the SE LEA before boundary changes. She gew up within the SC LEA. If she ran, she would take close to 4K votes and in a split field with the Greens, Sinn Féin, and Buttimer all polling around the 5K-6K mark, she could slip through on transfers from other Independents and small parties. However, she hasn't run for the Dáil previously and I have heard no indication that she wants to do so.

Marcia D'Alton has confirmed that she won't run, citing having a young family as the reason and not being able to commit to the time required in Dublin. She did indicate she could be inclined to a run in a future election.

It'll be a bit of a relief for those contesting the last seat.

Aside from being competitive, she would have impacted heavily on the Greens as something of an Independent Green.

She would also have hurt Michael McGrath, as she lived in Passage, which was his home town before he moved to Carrigaline. However, McGrath could have lost a lot of votes to her and still not been in trouble.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,375
The final list of candidates is below

I have no idea who Donohoe, O'Brien or O'Leary are.

The most notable thing is no Mick Finn. He took a handy (2,378) number of votes last time out. His absence is good news for Sinn Féin and Labour as his support base was in Labour's heartland on the southside of Cork, also an area where Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire is personally strong. You would also imagine it suits Paudie Dineen as the most high-profile Independent in the race. We can't work out from last time where his votes might have gone as a) Labour were eliminated and b) all FF candidates were elected when he was eliminated; he was also part of a 2-way elimination with The Green Party.

Another notable absentee is Diarmuid Ó Cadhla, but with nothing like the number of votes. On his elimination last time, the beneficiaries were Sinn Féin and AAA-PBP. Again all FF TDs were elected and you would expect a small geographical boost for Micheál Martin. There may be a question as to whether his voters will show up at all.

Lorna Bogue (Green Party)
Jerry Buttimer (Fine Gael)
Simon Coveney (Fine Gael)
Anna Daly (Aontú)
Paudie Dineen (Independent).
John Donohoe (Independent)
Ciara Kennedy (Labour Party)
Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil)
Michael McGrath (Fianna Fail)
William O’Brien (Independent)
Patricia O'Dwyer (Social Democrats)
Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire (Sinn Fein)
Sean O’Leary (Independent)
Bobby Murray Walsh (People Before Profit)
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Top Bottom