Cork South Central Labour to Double Up

thetruthsback

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Rumours Micheal McGrath is terrified Labour will take his seat. A couple of Red C Polls and Evening Echo polls suggest same. Could the unthinkable happen and Martin goes and McGrath holds on
 


Walkman

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Well the polls have been showing only 1FF seat there but all the talk has been Martin is more vulnerable than McGrath.
When they were discussing Dermot Aherns retirement today on Drivetime this evening they wondered if Micheal Martin would go again. I think he will. Big decision coming up is will he challenge for leadership of the party, if he does and wins then Mcgrath is the one in trouble. Either way I think Martin should hold on.
 

thetruthsback

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Well the polls have been showing only 1FF seat there but all the talk has been Martin is more vulnerable than McGrath.
When they were discussing Dermot Aherns retirement today on Drivetime this evening they wondered if Micheal Martin would go again. I think he will. Big decision coming up is will he challenge for leadership of the party, if he does and wins then Mcgrath is the one in trouble. Either way I think Martin should hold on.
Of course, his recent circumstance will have a positive effect on his campaign. I am sure we'd all agree it wasn't so Must be a tough time in the Martin household coming up to Christmas
 

callmedave

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I think Martin will hang on in there... He has the machine and in general is liked across the constituency. McGrath is popular in the county council area especially in Carrigaline and Passage/Monkstown but its hard to see where he would get the votes outside of this. Especially in middle class areas like Grange, Douglas and Rochestown where his stock has almost certainly been damaged.
His brother did well in the locals but FG got almost have the 1st pref in the county area... Its should be a fight between the 2nd FF, 2nd Lab and 3rd FG for the last seat, but you can't rule out a good run for SF or even a well placed indo.
Obviously my preference would be 2 Lab, 2 FG and 1 FF... with McGrath getting the boot.
 

locke

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McGrath will find it very hard to get a single vote in Martin territory. If Martin abandons vote management, he'll pick up a good number in McGrath's territory, especially around Rochestown, Donnybrook and Grange. He can squeeze McGrath if he chooses to.
 

callmedave

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Martin won't give McGrath any help... he'll go all out to get every FF vote. McGrath is well know as not being a team player, he was not supposed to get in on the first count last time out, but he went into Togher and it was seen that his greed lost them the Denehey seat, letting Lynch in.
McGrath also did not play ball with Paudi Martin in the locals last summer... expect the Martin machine to go hatchet for the McGraths.
 

cricket

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I think the recent tragedy for the Martins has swung the pendulum in his favour as against McGrath who hasn't exactly set the world on fire since his election. McGrath will also suffer from the candidature of Desmond , a neighbour's child. I predict 1ff, 2fg, 1L and one helluva fight involving Desmond , Fg , McGrath and possibly Finn ( ind ) if he runs.
 

thetruthsback

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I think the recent tragedy for the Martins has swung the pendulum in his favour as against McGrath who hasn't exactly set the world on fire since his election. McGrath will also suffer from the candidature of Desmond , a neighbour's child. I predict 1ff, 2fg, 1L and one helluva fight involving Desmond , Fg , McGrath and possibly Finn ( ind ) if he runs.
Don't rule out Henry Cremin Sinn Fein as for Dan, well enough said
 

locke

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Where would Finn get the votes?

He has no profile outside his own ward and there's an electorate of just under 13,000 there. Even if 75% vote, that's around 9,500 votes. And that ward is the core of Lynch's support. It's also Boyle's ward, although that wouldn't make as much difference.
 

hurricane

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Don't rule out Henry Cremin Sinn Fein as for Dan, well enough said
Chris o Leary running for SF here, martin and mcgrath will be a bloodbath, mcgrath is fecked if C.H.A.S.E run an anti incinerator/irish steel candidate...no offence to Paula Desmond but she is considered only a county cllr, not really up to national politics, can't see labour getting two seats here, SC is conservative..I reckon outcome could be .. FG - 3....FF -1...Lab - 1.... Dan Boil's vote could be a reckoner here..where will it go ?...CHASE and O Leary could get a lot of it
 

locke

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Boyle's vote had three components
1) A vote built up from his days as a councillor
2) A middle-class progressive vote
3) A Cork Harbour environmental issues vote

He lost a portion of the third one last time, which is what cost him his seat

1) will be his most loyal vote, but some will leak to Lynch
2) will be his weakest. It will split between Lynch, Clune and to a lesser extent O'Leary and Buttimer.
3) Hard to know what will happen with this. He may hold what he had from last time as he'd already lost a decent portion. If it does leak, Desmond and Coveney should be the major beneficiaries, unless CHASE run a candidate.
 

locke

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If Labour are agressive about their vote management and one of the FGers refuses to follow theirs, he may not, but it does seem the most likely outcome.
 

dotski_w_

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Chris o Leary running for SF here, martin and mcgrath will be a bloodbath, mcgrath is fecked if C.H.A.S.E run an anti incinerator/irish steel candidate...no offence to Paula Desmond but she is considered only a county cllr, not really up to national politics, can't see labour getting two seats here, SC is conservative..
A FG poll Southern Comfort « Irish Polling Report has backed up my CSC projections that Desmond is a likely beneficiary of the swing to Labour... also hard to see why she'd be ruled out as CSC are so conservative, but O'Leary would be in the mix.....
 

Blissett

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Where would Finn get the votes?

He has no profile outside his own ward and there's an electorate of just under 13,000 there. Even if 75% vote, that's around 9,500 votes. And that ward is the core of Lynch's support. It's also Boyle's ward, although that wouldn't make as much difference.
Finn isnt to be underestimated, and his profile is actually solid enough in the south west ward as well. His work in schools bring him in to contact with large amounts of people, and he is an active member of St Finbarrs, and from a longstanding barrs family. This is worth votes out as far as carrigaline, and is a factor worth considering.

I dont think he will take a seat or anything, but he may damage martin, and will poll respectably, and will consolidate his seat for the council next time.,
 

callmedave

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Finn isnt to be underestimated, and his profile is actually solid enough in the south west ward as well. His work in schools bring him in to contact with large amounts of people, and he is an active member of St Finbarrs, and from a longstanding barrs family. This is worth votes out as far as carrigaline, and is a factor worth considering.

I dont think he will take a seat or anything, but he may damage martin, and will poll respectably, and will consolidate his seat for the council next time.,
He could well damage Martin but he may also do serious damage to Buttimer in the border area between the central and south west ward. It would be interesting to see where his transfers will go.
 

dotski_w_

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Really been enjoying your analysis of the polls... which of the FFer's do u think will keep the seat?

Cheers.

Has to be Martin for me really, he was 1,400 ahead in '07, even when he was trying to split the vote for his running mate to take 2 seats, whereas this time he'll be in survival mode (he's not stupid enough to think there's 2 FF seats here). Also Desmond is going to take more votes off McGrath. All this of course besides the personal tragedy that Martin's had which would break any parent's heart.
 

slx

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They could possibly both be gone. Cork South Central's a suburban property bubble zone and people are utterly *SEETHING* with the Government in places like that.

I could see it go entirely FG+Labour (+ maybe 1 indie if someone interesting runs)
 


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