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Cork South Central


davehiggz

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Joined
May 7, 2009
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1,116
Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South Central First Preference Votes

Currently: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 Labour

Deirdre Clune and Simon Coveney for FG are safe, along with Labour's Ciaran Lynch.

Michael Martin's popularity will certainly get him over the line however the question remains whether he can bring Michael McGrath over the line with him to keep FF's two seats.

Should FF be left with one there would probably be a 3rd seat for FG. Jerry Buttimer is a Senator and he polled very well in 2007.

Again this is a tough call but with the recent opinion polls it makes all the more sense...

I predict: 1 Labour, 3 FG and 1 FF (or 2 FG and 2 FF)
 
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flavirostris

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Dec 21, 2007
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25,031
Both of the sitting FF'ers here are very strong..I'd still say 2FF 2FG and 1 Lab
 

Blissett

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Nov 9, 2008
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277
as you were, but expect cremin to increase vote this time out, Sf Vote in Sc up in local elections.
Lynch to poll very well indeed, maybe even top the poll.
 

red leveller

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May 24, 2009
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I reckon 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 LP.

I don't understand why anybody, even a right-winger, would vote for Clune, and the same nearly goes for Coveney - yet they do. Go figure. Buttimer has a lot of support in the Bishopstown area and he and his brother have had pretty high profiles. In a swing against FF but not to a real alternative I would expect FG to gain.

Martin is safe as houses. McGrath, on the other hand, was very visible when he was on the council but not so much since his switch to Leinster House. As a voiceless backbencher in a desperately unpopular senior party of a desperately unpopular government he should be electoral fodder.

Lynch will be fine. At the last election I thought Boyle might take the seat back at the first attempt (Lynch isn't exactly what you'd call impressive - a permatan and light coloured jacket does not a Tony Benn make), but once the Greens surrendered their virtue to sleazy uncle FF that became unlikely.

As to Cremin, I think he is a good worker and probably one of the few remaining old-style community-activist SFers, but the SF tide is on the way out.

SWP ran a candidate here in 2002. I wonder if they will run a PBPA candidate next time? Unlikely to challenge for a seat of course, but on the back of a national PBPA profile and TV appearances from photogenic and articulate candidates like RBB they might influence proceedings?
 
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Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
Likley to be no change, Martin and Lynch will both likely exceed the quota with McGrath, Buttimer, Coveney and Clune in the hunt for the final 3 seats with Coveney and Buttimer taking 2 for FG and McGrath getting in ahead of Clune for FF. Boyle stands no chance of regaining his seat and although the SF candidate should poll well they will not be in contention for a seat.

Most likely to be 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
 

red leveller

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May 24, 2009
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119
Likley to be no change, Martin and Lynch will both likely exceed the quota with McGrath, Buttimer, Coveney and Clune in the hunt for the final 3 seats with Coveney and Buttimer taking 2 for FG and McGrath getting in ahead of Clune for FF. Boyle stands no chance of regaining his seat and although the SF candidate should poll well they will not be in contention for a seat.

Most likely to be 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
On the basis of opinion polls, how can you predict 2 FF seats?

FF are a toxic brand - transfers will be hard to come by. Martin and McGrath will need about 30% of the first prefs, with a pretty-much 100% solid transfer from Martin to McGrath, in order to take two seats.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
On the basis of opinion polls, how can you predict 2 FF seats?

FF are a toxic brand - transfers will be hard to come by. Martin and McGrath will need about 30% of the first prefs, with a pretty-much 100% solid transfer from Martin to McGrath, in order to take two seats.
30% achievable and its more likely that FF will take two than FG taking 3 when they'd need 50% on the last effective count a far cry from 33% in 2007 considering FG are up on average just 6% points on their 2007 performance nationally. In terms of transfers they will only come from Dan Boyle with Sinn Féin not likely to transfer in great numbers to FG.
 

The Banker

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May 25, 2007
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103
Gardai called. 2 hours later still waiting for them to arrive.
 

lying eyes

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Apr 27, 2009
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4,417
If the people of Cork Suth Central returne Mickey Martin They deserve this budget and much more. They have not been punished enough-that can be sorted and certainly will be.
 

clerk

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Feb 2, 2011
Messages
49
What's the story with this David McCarthy youngfellow. Read his manefesto and I'm very taken with it.

Some new party, Independent alliance for change,

Cork South Central Candidiate :: Vote David McCarthy

Talks of an alliance with Shane Ross...anybody any info.

I'm South central myself and very unterested in modernising the politicial system.
 

clerk

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Feb 2, 2011
Messages
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Sorry, can you edit the post ? Should read " very interested ". Good start !!
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Would I be correct in stating that the constituency is three of the southern Cork city LEA's and Carrigaline attached to it.
 

MUFCFan

New member
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Messages
1
I want to use my vote tactically to get FF out.

Any advice on the most productive way to use my vote?
 

recessionman

Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
58
What's the story with this David McCarthy youngfellow. Read his manefesto and I'm very taken with it.

Some new party, Independent alliance for change,

Cork South Central Candidiate :: Vote David McCarthy

Talks of an alliance with Shane Ross...anybody any info.

I'm South central myself and very unterested in modernising the politicial system.
Dave's a very capable guy. He managed a few campaigns for FG, Sean Kelly I think in the euro elections last time out. I presume he couldnt get a FG nomination in Cork SC with the same 3 being touted again as last time. :rolleyes:

I'm also very taken with his manifesto and will seriously consider him No.1 with Coveney second.
 

Gael Nua

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Dec 9, 2009
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127
Ya, been following McCarthy and his Alliance colleagues and would definite give any of their candidates a vote.
 

Equality

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Nov 30, 2010
Messages
8
I had the other indo candidate Mick Finn call my door ,he had 30 with him the same day ,very impressed with him ,having seen anything yet of McCarthy guy yet ,im only waiting for political parties to call .
 

recessionman

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Feb 12, 2009
Messages
58
Dave's a very capable guy. He managed a few campaigns for FG, Sean Kelly I think in the euro elections last time out. I presume he couldnt get a FG nomination in Cork SC with the same 3 being touted again as last time. :rolleyes:

I'm also very taken with his manifesto and will seriously consider him No.1 with Coveney second.
To maximise losses to FF, I'm wondering is this the right strategy? I would presume the transfer to FG would count especially if McCarthy is eliminated early.

I know this is supposed to be the story but I get nervous my vote won't count and might be lost in the transfer process.

Paranoid I know!! :oops:

Can someone reassure me??

Please.....
 
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