Cork South West: Call the next GE Result

Casablanca

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The sitting 3 TDs are

Margaret Murphy O'Mahony (FF)
Michael Collins (IND)
Jim Daly (FG)

This is another Cork constituency that FG will be targeting to regain their 2:1 ration to FF. It's a huge area running from just outside the city to Mizen Head with the towns of Kinsale, Bandon, Clonakilty, Skibbereen, Bantry and Castletownbere. Up to 2011, it normally returned 2FG 1 FF. The second FG seat was lost in 2016 to the independent (anti-water) candidate Michael Collins, of whom not much has been heard of since. FF regained the seat they lost to Labour in 2011.
FG are running a new candidate Sen Tim Lombard from the very eastern boundary in order to hoover up the votes of a Cllr Alan Coleman (Independent) who got about 5000 votes in 2016. They need about 1500 extra votes to get the seat back, and should succeed. FF have only declared their sitting TD to date, but could add a sweeper in the western end of the constituency. SF have a candidate but this is strong blueshirt country, so I can't see them making the final cut.

Prediction: O'Mahony Murphy (FF), Jim Daly (FG) with Lombard (FG) and Collins (IND) fighting it out for the last seat, with the advantage to Lombard based on geography. FG gain from IND.
 
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statsman

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The sitting 3 TDs are

Margaret Murphy O'Mahony (FF)
Michael Collins (FG)
Jim Daly (FG)

This is another Cork constituency that FG will be targeting to regain their 2:1 ration to FF. It's a huge area running from just outside the city to Mizen Head with the towns of Kinsale, Bandon, Clonakilty, Skibbereen, Bantry and Castletownbere. Up to 2011, it normally returned 2FG 1 FF. The second FG seat was lost in 2016 to the independent (anti-water) candidate Michael Collins, of whom not much has been heard of since. FF regained the seat they lost to Labour in 2011.
FG are running a new candidate Sen Tim Lombard from the very eastern boundary in order to hoover up the votes of a Cllr Alan Coleman (Independent) who got about 5000 votes in 2016. They need about 1500 extra votes to get the seat back, and should succeed. FF have only declared their sitting TD to date, but could add a sweeper in the western end of the constituency. SF have a candidate but this is strong blueshirt country, so I can't see them making the final cut.

Prediction: O'Mahony Murphy (FF), Jim Daly (FG) with Lombard (FG) and Collins (IND) fighting it out for the last seat, with the advantage to Lombard based on geography. FG gain from IND.
Can you edit to reflect the fact that Collins is Indo?
 

peader odonnell

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The town of Dunmanway is also in Cork SW, Fine Gael will push very hard indeed, Tim Lombard is all over CSW at present , it would be a massive result if they got 2 seats but I wouldn't bet on it.
 

locke

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Are FG running a third western candidate? I thought Harrington was the best of the 2011-2016 TDs and was unfortunate to lose. If nothing else, not running a candidate from the peninsulas will increase Collins vote.

The sitting TDs here are awful, with Daly being the best of a bad lot.
 

locke

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The question mark I'd have on that is geography.

Assuming we are saying that the sitting FF and FG TDs retain and Lombard gains, the TDs would be Clonakilty, Bandon and Minane Bridge - all in east of the constituency (although we may just grant Clonakilty central)

Since the first contested elections in the state, there has always been a TD from Drimoleague or further west. While the population has skewed eastwards in the last 25 years, the combined vote of those from the area was still well over a quota last time out (Collins and Harrington combined hit 1.2 between them before the small candidates).

So, the only ways I can see FG2 FF1 are if FG run a third western candidate, who gets in ahead of either Daly or Lombard, or if FF find a western candidate who knocks out Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony. I'd note that former TD Denis O'Donovan (from Bantry) is still active in politics and could be well-positioned to do that
 

peader odonnell

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Wouldn't bet on that, Collins seems to be in an alliance with the Healy Raes.
 
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statsman

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Looks like no change to me.
 

GoneFishing

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No change party wise, 1,1,1. Whether Daly holds the FG seat or not would be the only change in personnel in my opinion.
 

locke

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No change party wise, 1,1,1. Whether Daly holds the FG seat or not would be the only change in personnel in my opinion.
Collins is vulnerable on paper, but I just can't see which of the current candidates can knock him out.

A significant candidate needs to emerge in the west of the constituency and unless FG and FF add someone to their lineup, that's not happening. There are no clear candidates from the smaller parties or the Independents.

There's only one FF seat, so by running two, all they will do is gift FG a seat. So they won't run two.

There may be an outside chance of FG adding Noel Harrington to the ticket.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 


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