Cork South West: Call the next GE Result

midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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5,766
I'd expect Collins' vote to be down a fair bit. Of course he will have a loyal base but his 'ultra' stance on the Eighth Amendment will have alienated some. FG traditionally got 2 out 3 seats here in their early 1980's heyday and did so again in 2007 and 2011. There will be a Labour vote of 5-7% which transfers heavily to them. FF will hold their seat, obviously. FG 2, FF 1
 


statsman

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Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,059
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

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3,173
I'd expect Collins' vote to be down a fair bit. Of course he will have a loyal base but his 'ultra' stance on the Eighth Amendment will have alienated some. FG traditionally got 2 out 3 seats here in their early 1980's heyday and did so again in 2007 and 2011. There will be a Labour vote of 5-7% which transfers heavily to them. FF will hold their seat, obviously. FG 2, FF 1

I agree with most of that, but it's not going to happen with FG candidates based in Minane Bridge and Clonakilty, and a FF candidate based in Bandon. That's way too skewed to the east.

If Lombard gets elected, Minane Bridge could end up with two TDs from the area (Simon Coveney is also from there), which would be pretty unusual for such a small village.
 

midlander12

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Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,766
I agree with most of that, but it's not going to happen with FG candidates based in Minane Bridge and Clonakilty, and a FF candidate based in Bandon. That's way too skewed to the east.

If Lombard gets elected, Minane Bridge could end up with two TDs from the area (Simon Coveney is also from there), which would be pretty unusual for such a small village.
I won't claim to be an expert on the geography. Obviously Coveney's in another constituency?
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,173
I won't claim to be an expert on the geography. Obviously Coveney's in another constituency?
Yes

Minane Bridge used to be in CSC, but got moved into CSW a decade or so ago. Coveney decided to stick with CSC as his big support base at the time was in Carrigaline (only a few km from Minane Bridge) and that wasn't moving.
 


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