Cork South West: Call the next GE Result

midlander12

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I'd expect Collins' vote to be down a fair bit. Of course he will have a loyal base but his 'ultra' stance on the Eighth Amendment will have alienated some. FG traditionally got 2 out 3 seats here in their early 1980's heyday and did so again in 2007 and 2011. There will be a Labour vote of 5-7% which transfers heavily to them. FF will hold their seat, obviously. FG 2, FF 1
 


statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

locke

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I'd expect Collins' vote to be down a fair bit. Of course he will have a loyal base but his 'ultra' stance on the Eighth Amendment will have alienated some. FG traditionally got 2 out 3 seats here in their early 1980's heyday and did so again in 2007 and 2011. There will be a Labour vote of 5-7% which transfers heavily to them. FF will hold their seat, obviously. FG 2, FF 1

I agree with most of that, but it's not going to happen with FG candidates based in Minane Bridge and Clonakilty, and a FF candidate based in Bandon. That's way too skewed to the east.

If Lombard gets elected, Minane Bridge could end up with two TDs from the area (Simon Coveney is also from there), which would be pretty unusual for such a small village.
 

midlander12

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I agree with most of that, but it's not going to happen with FG candidates based in Minane Bridge and Clonakilty, and a FF candidate based in Bandon. That's way too skewed to the east.

If Lombard gets elected, Minane Bridge could end up with two TDs from the area (Simon Coveney is also from there), which would be pretty unusual for such a small village.
I won't claim to be an expert on the geography. Obviously Coveney's in another constituency?
 

locke

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I won't claim to be an expert on the geography. Obviously Coveney's in another constituency?
Yes

Minane Bridge used to be in CSC, but got moved into CSW a decade or so ago. Coveney decided to stick with CSC as his big support base at the time was in Carrigaline (only a few km from Minane Bridge) and that wasn't moving.
 
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Fast forward to October 2019 and Jim Daly is not standing - any thoughts on how this will go now that Lombard can presumably run with someone from further west in the constituency?
Does anyone still think Michael Collins' seat is under threat after his brother's performance in the locals?
Any curveball predictions for an upset?
 

peader odonnell

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Collins seat is copperfastened after his recent comments.
Mayor of Cork County Christopher O Sullivan wants a FF nomination otherwise he will go Indo.
Lombard looks good for the FG seat, Karen Coakley Skibbereen may be his running mate.
 
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Collins will lose a lot of votes from those comments too - a fair number of left-leaners gave him a scratch because he was active in the community. Nowhere near enough to damage him but if any left/prog party fields a candidate they'll drop him for that.
I'm hearing it won't be Coakley running with Lombard - he more or less put the kibosh on that himself recently, suggesting she'd only be a gender quota box checker.
Interesting about O'Sullivan - not sure he'd go solo at all.

In Lombard-MMoM-Collins we have three anti-repealers, you'd be wondering if one/any of the left-type parties would be looking to fill the gap. Paul Hayes is well-liked but he had to fight hard to keep his seat in the locals. Can't see the make up changing but maybe we'll see a few good runners coming close.
 

locke

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On paper Collins seat looks vulnerable. A lot of people who transferred to Independent will be put off by both his stances on abortion and immigration. However, it's hard to see who can rise to take him out.

There is an anyone-but-FF/FG seat at the moment in the constituency.

Sinn Fein are way short and don't have a national swing to pull a candidate in.

The only obvious Labour candidate is Michael McCarthy. He's a very known quantity and will only get in on a day when Labour poll in the mid-teens nationally. That's not happening.

The Greens don't have an elected local councilor and didn't even run one west of Bandon.

So that leaves the others.

In fairness, Holly McKeever-Cairns of the Social Democrats seems to be doing a stellar job since elected, but she only just scraped in and would the Social Democrats put scarce resources into West Cork?

And Independents... Alan Coleman will always fancy himself, but he's from the very far east of the constituency and doesn't seem well placed to take out someone from the very far west. Declan Hurley has geography much more in his favour, but doesn't pull the votes in like Coleman. There are no other Independents with even close to the level of support required to get elected.

For me the only practical possibility of unseating Collins is that FF or FG take a seat with a western-based candidate, but their eastern candidate loses out to Coleman.

I do think it was a constituency that completely elected the wrong people in 2016. Daly looked the worst of the TDs between 2011 and 2016 and has seemed the best since the last election.
 

peader odonnell

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Would Tomas O Brian Or Gearoid Buckley stand for Labour, electing Coleman or Hurley is effectively the same as electing 2FF or 2 FG, everyone knows where they come from, if OSullivan don't get a FF nomination then I'm sure he will run as an Indo_On Collins his anti abortion and anti Mass Immigration stance is a winner, don't doubt it.
 

midlander12

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I previously predicted FG 2 FF 1 here, but with the incumbent FG TD standing down, that isn't going to happen now. Nor will FF take 2, so the only outcome I can see in FF 1 FG 1 and Collins, as you were.
 

wiseowl

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if ff and fg run two candidates, then not alone will Collins retain his seat, he will comfortably top the poll. That Peter Casey 25% is lurking in the background and the likes of Collins & Grealish will mop it up and are as safe as houses.
I will predict that this time around, the first preference of the combined ff candidates will be greater than the fg runners and Cork may yield no fruits for Fg, they will do well to retain their current representation.

What I find interesting in the narrative re: the so called disgraceful comments of Grealish/Collins/Matty McGrath as perceived by the snowflakes, is that those living in the RTE/Irish Times pro-multiculturalist bubble, think the politicians are in jeopardy. Au contraire, their comments reflect shared values in rural outposts and their reward will be at the ballot box.
It will be enlightening to note how well Amadan O Riordain, a poster boy for immigration and its trimmings, gets rewarded in the next election.
 

locke

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Cairns wouldn't waste time and money running in the GE, she knows that she hasn't a prayer.
Completely agree.

West Cork is a hard place to campaign. If the Soc Dems committed campaigners to the area, they would find they could hit 10 houses in the time it would take to hit 100 in Dublin or even 50 in Kildare. For a party with scarce resources, that's a huge opportunity cost. Any burden would fall on a handful of local organizers with no likely reward.
 

locke

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That Peter Casey 25% is lurking in the background and the likes of Collins & Grealish will mop it up and are as safe as houses.
21% in Cork South-West and I doubt the full protest vote will coalesce round a candidate in an election where there are important things like taxes and services to be discussed. It's the services part that will stand to Collins though as his work in organising community buses to hospitals etc. will stand to him

I will predict that this time around, the first preference of the combined ff candidates will be greater than the fg runners and Cork may yield no fruits for Fg, they will do well to retain their current representation.
I'm with you on both of these.

With the benefit of an additional candidate, FF will haul in FG for first preferences, but I don't expect either to have enough votes to elect two.

In the broader Cork area, they may pick up a seat in Cork North-West with John-Paul O'Shea on their ticket and because geography has skewed southwards, while Michael Moynihan of FF will finally see his lack of contribution count against him. Any gain there could be undone by a potential loss in Cork North Central. Churn on their candidates and a less than inspiring current line up, combined with likely falls in the Sinn Fein and Socialist Party votes, could see either Labour or a 2nd FF pipping them for a seat.
 

peader odonnell

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Coleman had a very young and well organised canvassing team all adorned in yellow jackets at the last GE, nice man but he forgot to mention the farm in North Cork.
 


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