Cork South West: Call the next GE Result

locke

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For Cairns, I think it's an election too soon for her, but there is no harm in putting her name forward if she has future ambitions. It could help establish her as the leading future left candidate. And Cork South-West has a habit of rewarding those who persist at elections. Christy O'Sullivan, PJ Sheehan, Denis O''Donovan and Michael McCarthy are all names that come to mind when thinking of those who took several runs to get in.

Exactly how she does will depend on how long until the election. She is impressing me greatly as a councilor and the longer until the election, the more of her constituents will see that.

As you say though, it's going to be on her time. There's no way that the Social Democrats are going to throw many national resources at an outside shot in West Cork. She may struggle to canvas outside her own LEA.

If the election is held in the next few months, I'd stand by my 1,500 figure for the Social Democrats, unless Labour and/or the Greens don't run a candidate. She would be the biggest beneficiary of either of those happening.
 


midlander12

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For Cairns, I think it's an election too soon for her, but there is no harm in putting her name forward if she has future ambitions. It could help establish her as the leading future left candidate. And Cork South-West has a habit of rewarding those who persist at elections. Christy O'Sullivan, PJ Sheehan, Denis O''Donovan and Michael McCarthy are all names that come to mind when thinking of those who took several runs to get in.

Exactly how she does will depend on how long until the election. She is impressing me greatly as a councilor and the longer until the election, the more of her constituents will see that.

As you say though, it's going to be on her time. There's no way that the Social Democrats are going to throw many national resources at an outside shot in West Cork. She may struggle to canvas outside her own LEA.

If the election is held in the next few months, I'd stand by my 1,500 figure for the Social Democrats, unless Labour and/or the Greens don't run a candidate. She would be the biggest beneficiary of either of those happening.
For those who live outside the parish, could posters please put the party label after the candidate, at least at the start of the post. I'm presuming Cairns is SD but can't tell for sure?
 

MOSS1

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I would have thought this is one of the easier constituencies to call. Tim Lombard to step into Jim Daly's seat but otherwise no change. When he was first elected I thought Michael Collins had one of the softer independent seats and that he might be susceptible to being unseated in the event of an increase in support for the two main parties but especially FG. However i think he's solidified his position and his brother's show in the locals would seem to suggest support has held up. Also I'm not sure FG will have a strong candidate out west. Noel Harrington lost in the local elections and the original FG ticket didn't have a candidate at that end. FF may add someone from Bantry but other than Denis O'Donovan in 2002 they've never really looked like winning a seat out there.
 

MOSS1

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This must be historically the most FG-friendly constituency in the country in terms of the longevity of them enjoying the advantage over FF. It also always returns one seat in the west and two in the more populous area further east. Michael Collins therefore despite possibly being more FF gene pool is probably holding a FG seat.

The one thing that might change things here is if the national election becomes dominated by a FF v FG theme to the detriment of the rest. As we saw for example in 1997 and 2007 and further back in the early 1980s. However even at that, for reasons of geography, candidate selection etc I think it's difficult for either of the big two to win a second seat. In many ways this constituency sums up one of the stumbling blocks for the big two nationally which is that despite much speculation to the contrary (wishful thinking on the part of the big parties?) support for independents, especially the gene pool or 'local factors' independents appears not to be disippating and is stubbornly holding up.
 
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Rumour doing the rounds today that both Collins brothers will run in the GE. There'd been speculation following Danny's big win in the locals. They're certainly a poor man's Healy-Rea pairing, and they don't come anywhere near delivering (unless you count the ability to organise a bus to NI) but their Kerry counterparts are in different constituencies.
Anyone see this flying? Maybe they're eyeing MMoM's seat. Lombard will kill people of boredom but there are places in CSW where a dog turd rolled in glitter would get in as long as a FG sticker was on it.
 

peader odonnell

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There was rumour some time back that the Healy -Reaes niece who works in Cork was going to stand in CSW at the GE.
 

locke

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Run two and it may cost Collins his seat by splitting the vote for a few reasons.

- Collins is a first time Independent. He has nothing like the Healy-Rae brand in Kerry
- Kerry is a five-seater. Taking two is practical but challenging for the Healy-Raes. Two in a three-seater for a family candidate wouldn't even work for the Healy-Raes
- The Healy-Raes carefully grew their support by getting councilors from the family in place outside their home area. Collins has not done this.
- Collins's views have got more prominence and where he picked up loads of transfers from other Independent candidates (and also Labour, Green and Sinn Féin), those transfers will come after a lot more scrutiny now. In particular, I'd question the nearly 1,500 votes he got from Sinn Féin. He'll pull the anti-establishment vote, but what hope of transfers from the Ó Broin faction?
- Collins has no real profile in the east of the constituency
- His brother's supporter wasn't that spectacular. 27% in an LEA that holds 28% of the constituency electorate.
- For FG, and to a lesser extent FF, dislodging Collins will be one of their biggest focuses nationally, so he won't just be taking on local strategists.

It's several times more likely that Collins will lose his seat rather than have his brother take one.
 
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I wouldn't be counting on any votes going to Collins from his wife or her friends and family.

The brother has a pub in Bandon though, so he has got access to feet on the street to canvass - and a relatively decent profile, thanks to his office.

I'd tend to agree with Locke about the wisdom of trying for 2/3 seats. There's no way in hell he'll get the transfers he got from the left the last time around - he's exposed himself quite a bit locally since 2016, when he had kudos as a local activist but some of his more "interesting" attributes wouldn't have been commonly known. A lot of the 'crusty' element would have voted for him then but very few will do it again. The conservative and elderly vote is sewn up for him - I suppose that's what FF/FG will be eyeing up.
 

locke

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Agreed.

Aside from the enforced one in FG, the only real change I can see is in the FF line-up.

If O'Sullivan gets on the ticket, we may get Lombard, O'Sullivan and Collins.

Otherwise, it's the status quo.

Collins can only be threatened by a strong western candidate and we must conclude from the locals that Harrington of FG is a busted flush, while Denis O'Donovan has only been elected in one of his six runs for the Dáil and didn't bother last time out. It's hard to see who that strong western candidate could be.
 
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The only reason MMoM was elected was because she was FF. Any FF candidate would have won that seat - which is probably why old Alan Coleman was so sore about the selection process.
Bit of a dearth of big name challengers further west, that's for sure. Collins saw his chance in 2016 and took it. Seems insane that the Beara never really votes for its own.
 

locke

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That is interesting. It must be an expensive constituency to conduct a poll like that.

It seems a bit remiss to leave Alan Coleman out considering how many votes he secured last time out.

Then again, does anyone know how old he is. I remember reading that his mother dies earlier this year at the age of 99.

I'd also question whether Michael McCarhy should be on that ballot. He hasn't confirmed his intentions yet, but I'd note he was active for Labour in the by-elections recently.

Do you know is that the only ballot or were there alternative ones with either a FG or FF candidate changed?
 
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No idea who's behind it. But must be someone with deep enough pockets. Not sure how old Coleman is either but you'd wonder if even a very rich farmer like him has the appetite to pay for another run at it.
Hard to know what Michael McCarthy will do. Labour have not been active in CSW for a while. Maybe they think they don't need new blood or ideas now if they can transfer well from Cairns or any Green that might run.
The end result might be predictable enough but it could be a very interesting campaign. Collins spent a lot of time slagging the Social Dems in the last 24 hours suggesting he sees a threat from Cairns - seemed a very naive show of his hand so early in the day but then maybe he's trying to lay ground for his brother to run on. Fianna Fail must be wishing they could just run O'Sullivan.
 


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