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Could Fianna Fáil recover and win the next General Election?


Could Fianna Fáil recover and win the next General Election?

  • Yes

    Votes: 60 49.2%
  • No

    Votes: 62 50.8%

  • Total voters
    122
  • Poll closed .

Utopian Hermit Monk

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 8, 2007
Messages
3,928
A few months ago, I would have thought it was absolutely beyond the bounds of the imaginable that Fianna Fáil might survive the shock of the economic collapse, bluster its way through a harsh recovery programme, hang on in office until 2012 and recover sufficiently in order to defeat the main Opposition parties in the next General Election.

Last night's segment on Newsweek (BBC2) in which Obama pollster Cornell Belcher analysed the current state of the main political parties in the UK had me making many comparisons with the current state of play here.

Unlike in the last U.S. Presidential elections, when Obama voters believed (rightly or wrongly) that they were opting for a clear alternative to Bush's policies, voters in the UK emerged as profoundly unenthusiastic about any of the parties. Many of those who may desert Labour for the Conservatives will do so out of a sense of anger and disillusionment. They are not pro-Conservatives and/or David cameron. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are failing to convince many people that they represent a credible alternative.

Similarly, many people here feel disgusted with Fianna Fáil, and probably long for a clear alternative. But neither Fine Gael nor Labour is perceived as an attractive option. In the case of Fine Gael, this is more understandable, since there is little of an ideological nature to distinguish it from Fianna Fáil. Given the now almost total irrelevance of Civil War politics, opting to support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael may be largely a matter of preference for one set of personalities over another, or choosing the least bad option between the two.

Referring to the UK, Cornell Belcher concluded that
(a) a clear majority of the electorate is hungry for change, and
(b) any Party willing and able to respond to that hunger by presenting a radical alternative to 'politics-as-usual' would win massive support.

I believe the same is true here, and the Labour Party has everything to win or lose. Gilmore even emerges as the post popular Party leader. I certainly hear lots of people lauding Joan Burton's Dáil performances, especially when she attacks the Government full-on.

But Labour appears to shy away from really going after the big prize, i.e. a Labour (or Labour-led) Government after the next General Election. For example, by joining Fine Gael and other parties in refusing to demand the resignation of John O'Donoghue, Labour immediately confirms a suspicion that, when all is said and done, 'they are all the same'. Labour appears to make radical noises in fits and starts. And that is not good enough.

In the absence of a really inspiring alternative, I am beginning to think that Fianna Fáil strategists are probably keeping their own troops in order by pointing out (a) the weakness of support for the Opposition, (b) the fickleness and short memory of the electorate, and (c) the fact that, while 2009 may be their darkest hour, there are already glimmers of light on the horizon, indicating that they could well manage to turn things around by 2012.

I certainly don't believe that Fianna Fáil are remotely ready to concede the next General Election. And for that, Fine Gael and, especially, Labour, are largely to blame.


.
 
Last edited:

ajax1000

Active member
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
244
FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.
 

QuizMaster

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May 26, 2004
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3,208
Website
www.quizmatic.com
It would be unlikely, but not impossible for FF to win the next elelction. Or at least for FG to fluff it. The blueshirts are thier own worst enemies. Watch them miss an open goal in Dunlaoghaire next time out, for example. And I can't see all 3 holding in Dublin South.
 

turdsl

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2008
Messages
26,085
If the government get to Christmas its a new ball game for the new year,Cowen will have the wind on his back.
 

TheJudge

Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2007
Messages
37
I would also consider it unlikely but certainly not impossible, provided the Government lasts the full term that is (which is obviously far from sure). However, if it could last till 2012 that's an awful long period of time and who knows what will have happened, look at the changes since 2006 as an example. I think there's about a %10-15 of FF retaining power.
 

bormotello

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Messages
12,171
FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.
Opposition is not better :(
They afraid to take any action, which will bring them to power
 

Iarmhi Gael

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,857
They will either go on to be the third largest party or they will match FG in the Next GE.

If the global economic climate improves, NAMA shows signs of working and the mood of the country is positive with the likes of a World Cup run or some other national event which bonds the country I really see FF doing ok. The electorate may well aproach the polls with a feeling that FF are working, their policies on NAMA and the banks have worked, so why should I vote for people who didn't want it. "Better the Devil you know syndrome". Not saying they are going to get the figures in the last GE, but I do think they will be up with FG.
 

Utopian Hermit Monk

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 8, 2007
Messages
3,928
FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.

I honestly don't believe they are finished, incredible as that may seem.

But the real problem is the weakness of the Opposition. Neither Enda Kenny nor the Fine Gael front bench inspires much enthusiasm.

I think the key to Fianna Fail's defeat or victory could well be the Labour Party. If they can shake themselves out of their 'aw sure a few more seats than the last time will be grand' mentality, and really present themselves as a credible alternative Government with clearly new policies, they could really shake things up. But there are no signs that they are interested in taking this path. I already mentioned their unwillingness to demand John O'Donoghue's resignation. Another example is their silence on the need to slash Ministerial, TD and Seanad salaries and expenses. If Labour had the conviction to announce an immediate 40 or 50% cut if they won a majority in the next Dáil, I believe they would see an immediate increase in support.



.
 

flavirostris

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Messages
25,031
absolutely they could..people would be foolish to write them off until the see them buried at a crossroads with a stake through through their hearts ( with apologies to the cruiser )
 

dub14

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2008
Messages
1,238
A lot will depend on timing and their performance in 3 to 6 months period before the next GE. I think it's safe to say that if the GE was next week then FF and Green would get results similar to the Locals, i.e. v poor. However if they could manage to turn a corner and see some economic progress then people might just decide to stick with them. Scary thought I know but it is possible. Their best hope is to go full term so that the memories of the last 12 months get dimmer and dimmer. All the more reason to get them out asap.
 

bormotello

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Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Messages
12,171
If Labour had the conviction to announce an immediate 40 or 50% cut if they won a majority in the next Dáil, I believe they would see an immediate increase in support.
The most important problem for Labour Party is how to stay away from power until FF clean all mess and impose all cut
They don't need support now :(
 
Joined
Jun 9, 2007
Messages
19,084
We have among the most docile, politically disinterested (until their own direct interest is affected), and pliable populations in the world. Yes, it is perfectly feasible that they will recover and win in three years. The referendum is the last chance to hit them directly until 2012. After that they have three whole years in which they could, of course, turn themselves around. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a naive idiot.
 

dOlier

Member
Joined
May 18, 2007
Messages
43
The same old same old . .

If the government get to Christmas its a new ball game for the new year,Cowen will have the wind on his back.
Unfortunately you are right.

Everybody is Pee.ed of with FF, but they have the neck of the proverbial jockey's b*x.
If the Greens don't pull the plug next month - and I wouldn't bet on it - they can last.

Enda does NOT inspire confidence as a leader,

and similarly Labour is lacking the assertiveness they had under Dick Spring.
 

Iarmhi Gael

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,857
But the real problem is the weakness of the Opposition. Neither Enda Kenny nor the Fine Gael front bench inspires much enthusiasm.




.
If Fine Gael had Joan Burton as its leader - FG would get a majority in the next election. I think the mood may well be for a woman to lead, people are fed up with waffling and want someone to stand up, raise their voices and talk like a normal common voter.
 
Last edited:
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
Messages
8
The real problem is the weakness of the Opposition.

Neither Enda Kenny nor the Fine Gael front bench inspires much enthusiasm.

I think the key to Fianna Fail's defeat or victory could well be the Labour Party.
Got it in two! - Kenny is a Grade A dope with all of the charisma of a blancmange and Gilmore isn't anything yet.

(The average age of Labour Party TDs must be in the sixties - Joan Burton and Liz McManus are grandmothers and Emmet Stagg, Michael Dee and Rurai Quinn are of a like age - a tad too old to appeal to the young Irish electorate, methinks.)
 

ang

Active member
Joined
May 4, 2009
Messages
156
It's not impossible. Groundhog Day for Ireland.
 
M

MrFunkyBoogaloo

UtopianHermitmonk said:
For example, by joining Fine Gael and other parties in refusing to demand the resignation of John O'Donoghue, Labour immediately confirms a suspicion that, when all is said and done, 'they are all the same'.
Nail on the head... FF, FG and Lab are all the same!.. They only differ on economic policies really and from what i've seen over the last 12 months, none of them know their arses from their elbows!

But i think the weak opposition can do nothing but help FF. Irish people deserve better, or do we?
 
Last edited:

west'sawake

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 15, 2008
Messages
3,650
A few months ago, I would have thought it was absolutely beyond the bounds of the imaginable that Fianna Fáil might survive the shock of the economic collapse, bluster its way through a harsh recovery programme, hang on in office until 2012 and recover sufficiently in order to defeat the main Opposition parties in the next General Election.

Last night's segment on Newsweek (BBC2) in which Obama pollster Cornell Belcher analysed the current state of the main political parties in the UK had me making many comparisons with the current state of play here.

Unlike in the last U.S. Presidential elections, when Obama voters believed (rightly or wrongly) that they were opting for a clear alternative to Bush's policies, voters in the UK emerged as profoundly unenthusiastic about any of the parties. Many of those who may desert Labour for the Conservatives will do so out of a sense of anger and disillusionment. They are not pro-Conservatives and/or David cameron. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are failing to convince many people that they represent a credible alternative.

Similarly, many people here feel disgusted with Fianna Fáil, and probably long for a clear alternative. But neither Fine Gael nor Labour is perceived as a attractive option. In the case of Fine Gael, this is more understandable, since there is little of an ideological nature to distinguish it from Fianna Fáil. Given the now almost total irrelevance of Civil War politics, opting to support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael may be largely a matter of preference for one set of personalities over another, or choosing the least bad option between the two.

Referring to the UK, Cornell Belcher concluded that
(a) a clear majority of the electorate is hungry for change, and
(b) any Party willing and able to respond to that hunger by presenting a radical alternative to 'politics-as-usual' would win massive support.

I believe the same is true here, and the Labour Party has everything to win or lose. Gilmore even emerges as the post popular Party leader. I certainly hear lots of people lauding Joan Burton's Dáil performances, especially when she attacks the Government full-on.

But Labour appears to shy away from really going after the big prize, i.e. a Labour (or Labour-led) Government after the next General Election. For example, by joining Fine Gael and other parties in refusing to demand the resignation of John O'Donoghue, Labour immediately confirms a suspicion that, when all is said and done, 'they are all the same'. Labour appears to make radical noises in fits and starts. And that is not good enough.

In the absence of a really inspiring alternative, I am beginning to think that Fianna Fáil strategists are probably keeping their own troops in order by pointing out (a) the weakness of support for the Opposition, (b) the fickleness and short memory of the electorate, and (c) the fact that, while 2009 may be their darkest hour, there are already glimmers of light on the horizon, indicating that they could well manage to turn things around by 2012.

I certainly don't believe that Fianna Fáil are remotely ready to concede the next General Election. And for that, Fine Gael and, especially, Labour, are largely to blame.


.

I have not voted FF for the last two General Elections and will not at the next one either. That said however your analysis is not at all unreasonable and F.G. are only in the lead by default. If the worst is over for the Economy, and if Lisbon is passed, (which I oppose), F.F. will begin to recover, getting a spring in their step.

Lenihan is proving to be their best asset and is growing in stature and confidence, nothing made this clearer than F.G. haplessness during the NAMA debate. The fact is, and I thought this would be impossible, Lenihan is easily outshining Burton and Bruton, and George Lee without the T.V. is becoming 'mediocre'.

The fact is I could not imagine anyone else in F.F. or for that matter F.G. or Labour having kept their heads and got us through what I think is the worst of the crisis as Brian Lenihan has done. F.F. will owe it to him if they are not obliterated at the next election.
 
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Keith-M

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Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,779
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Two weks ago when I wa watching Ciowen on the Late Lte Show, I felt for the first time that FF had some fight left in them and everything since then has confirmed this for me. The ;party is climbing in the polls (albeit from a low base), the polls o Lisbon are going their way and it is clear that they have won the debate on NAMA and the Greens are seem to know hey need to play it long to survive.

FF are also helped by a very very poor opposition. My disregard for Kenny is well known, but the whole front bench has been uninspiring in recent month and they have been over-shadowed by the ghosts of FG's past (Garret, Dukes & Hussey). Labour are threading water but it is worth noting that Labour and FF were far closer on NAMA than either was with FG.

FF will do whatever it takes to stay in power, so come the next election, Gilmore will have an interesting choice;
A coalition with FG.
A coalition with FF.
Force FF and FG into a coalition and become the main opposition party.
 
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