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Could Fine Gael win an overall majority?


Could FG win an overall majority after the next General Election?

  • Yes

    Votes: 63 40.1%
  • No

    Votes: 94 59.9%

  • Total voters
    157
  • Poll closed .
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davidcochrane
I've spoken to a few politicos about Fine Gael over the past few days and there are growing concerns particularly within the Labour camp that Fine Gael could very well command an overall majority come the next General Election.

What do you think? Is an FG overall majority possible?
 
Last edited:


LiberalFG

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Unfortunately no, we'll have to rely on bloody labour, or maybe a severely depleted and emasculated FF but we certainly won't gain 84 plus. Not a hope.
 

jmcc

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Yes FG could win an overall majority. However it might have to go negative quickly. Blaming Cowen for the financial disaster would be easy and would resonate with voters. FG also have a major liability in Enda Kenny and would have him maintain a very low profile. Buggins' Turn is not an excuse for being Taoiseach - as people have found with Cowen. FG would also have to decide not to settle for second best - a coalition with Labour.

Regards...jmcc
 

davehiggz

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I see at least 70. 76 is quite possible too.

83 is not possible without another party or independents to support us. Unless Kenny and the Front Bench can swing public opinion it won't happen.

Anything is possible between now and 2012 though.

I'm wondering to see what happens now with the public sector. Will Labour be forced to support the action and could this lose them votes and bring them to FG who I doubt will support any strong industrial action?
 

Anorakphobia

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FF and FG combined support has always been approx 2/3rds of the electorate.
With FF massively unpopular and at 20%, FG are therefore hugely underperforming in the mid 30's.
They should be flirting with mid 40's and making an overall majority very likely but they are not because they are a bunch of spineless kow towers who are merely happy at the prospect of leading a government instead of gambling on a once in a century landscape changing election.

Listening to Varadkar and Nora Owen on VB the other night it is plain as day they are still petrified of the FF bogey man and fully expect FF to recover.

The danger of this strategy is that the electorate will clock this cowardice and turn on them and we will end up with dozens of loony indos replacing FF'ers in many areas.

FG need a few polls with Labour getting to within 2 or 3 points of them to scare them that they need to get off their arses and get ambitious instead of politely waiting for power.

One thing for sure is that if FG aren't the biggest single party after the next GE, they can disband immediately because it woudl be game over given how much everything has fallen their way in the last 3 years.

To answer the question.
Yes, the math is there to make it possible with FF at 20ish but they just don't have the balls to baldly go for it.
 

liamfoley

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Anyone for a FG minority govt? FF will have no stomach for govt. (they will be licking their wounds for at least one term) and they do not want to see some of their policies totally unraveled. Could FF have their version of a Tallagh Strategy?
 

Supermanpolitician

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Absolutely yes, with well managed voting strategies and hard work.

But it willtake a huge effort and self belief. I know some in FG who have no doubt that FG can. Some of the more seasoned members are now finding this self belief that comes more easily to younger folks.

There is an amazing confidence about the party, which was desparately lacking a mere 7 years ago.
 

southwestkerry

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Their is no reason why they can not.
 

Simbo67

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A very hard ask. I honestly believe that FG can get into power without Labour though. The last SB Post poll had us at a figure that would deliver around 70 seats on a good day. We need to keep heading north from there and it could possibly become the self-fulfilling prophesy
 

Sierra

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Even if it came down to an election next month, I could not see any party gaining an overall majority. A FG minority government however I can envisage.
 

flavirostris

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I'm wondering to see what happens now with the public sector. Will Labour be forced to support the action and could this lose them votes and bring them to FG who I doubt will support any strong industrial action?
That's a key point. There's a real danger for Labour in being perceived as the Public Sector Party among the electorate. That will bring even more votes to FG
 

Digout

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Its possible,but unlikely. I reckon FG and SF will form the next government.
 

Supermanpolitician

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A very hard ask. I honestly believe that FG can get into power without Labour though. The last SB Post poll had us at a figure that would deliver around 70 seats on a good day. We need to keep heading north from there and it could possibly become the self-fulfilling prophesy
A very important point. I spoke to one FG member, a new member who said that FG would never gain an overall majority because we never had one. I pointed out that with the state less than 90 years old, there would be plenty of time to have FG as an overall majority.

Who thought two years ago when we blew it that we could win a Grand Slam again? I was in Paris in 96 at Ireland's largest ever defeat in Parc des Princes and people said Ireland wouldn't win in France for another 50 years.

Fortunately enough people were good enough....and had self belief. It's the same in politics.
 

Sierra

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Its possible,but unlikely. I reckon FG and SF will form the next government.
I could not imagine such a coalition lasting all that long myself - not many would be able to stomach going into government with SF.
 

Supermanpolitician

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I could not imagine such a coalition lasting all that long myself - not many would be able to stomach going into government with SF.
Even if FG only needed SF seats they would go in with Lab ahead of SF.

But the question is can they achieve an overall majority? Yes or No.
 

Supermanpolitician

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Even if it came down to an election next month, I could not see any party gaining an overall majority. A FG minority government however I can envisage.
An election in about another year would be better for FG, but not for the country.
 

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