Countdown to midterms

Dame_Enda

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He Congressional midterm elections are in November 2018. Will history repeat itself with the usual losses for the ruling party?

Some straws in the wind this year with 6 special elections to fill vacant House seats. None have yet flipped red to blue, but in all but one of those held this year, the Dem vote was way up. In one blue State the Dem vote was 30% higher than Hillary's vote.

Particularly interesting will be GA-6 which was won by Trump by 1% but by now Health Secretary Tom Price with around 61%.
 


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Despite what FakeNews media is saying Trump is popular, they will continue to abuse but MSM has lost the voters in small town America.

In 2018 I do not see Democrats flipping many House seats, likely they will win some but not enough to change it.

Additionally no chance of Senate flipping.
 

NYCKY

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The incumbent party in the White House typically loses seats in the House and Senate in the midterm elections.

It has only happened three times that they haven't, the most recent one in 2002 when Bush was President and it was just over a year after 9/11. The second one was in 1998 when voters felt that the GOP had over reached on the impeachment of Clinton although the Dems stayed even in the Senate that year. The first time was 1934 in Roosevelts first term and in the middle of the great depression.

The GOP is probably near their peak of what they could win in the House now so they should lose some seats. Right now the GOP has a 19 seat majority but that excludes four vacancies from Cabinet appointments. That number should go up a bit when the by-elections are held. If there is something of a wave, then the House could be lost but it would take a wave.

The Senate however is looking like an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats. They have 25 seats compared to the GOPs 8 seats.

The GOP are defending seats in Arizona, Nebraska, Nevada, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. I don't know where the Dems will pull three seats out of that lot as well as hold their own 25. Arizona maybe, Nevada perhaps, but Heller won election in Nevada in 2012 even as Obama carried the state.

The Dems have five very imperiled incumbents in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Trump won some of these states by 30-40 points. Manchin in West Virginia has a huge personal vote and has been amenable to Trumps agenda but the others got really lucky in 2012 often against bad opponents like McCaskill in Missouri against Todd Akin and Joe Donnelly against Richard Mourdock in Indiana and their comments about abortion and gifts from God. :shock: Some of these Dems like McCaskill could get primary challenges from the left making it even more difficult to win in the General election.

There are also five other Democrats running in state won by Trump, albeit more narrowly, Florida, Michigan,Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

It's still very early days 20 months is a long time in politics but talk of filibuster proof majority is very premature but the GOP should pick up some seats making it easier to hold the majority in 2020.
 

comet

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Who cares, same old - same old, one eejit replacing an idiot.
 

Dame_Enda

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Opinion Savvy poll has Ossoff (D) ahead in first and second round against GOP candidates except Judson Hill in the Georgia 6th District special election poll. Interesting Trump approval rating in the district is +7 over the +1 margin he won the district by - but far behind Tom Price's 61-38 win. First round is in April.

Opinion Savvy joins other polls in finding Ossoff leading the eighteen candidate primary pack with 40%, mainly thanks to near-unity of Democratic voters. Republicans meanwhile remain divided, and that may be impacting the runoff hypotheticals tested. In their latest release, they find Ossoff edging Karen Handel 42.4% to 41%, Bob Gray 44.3% to 42.3%, trailing Judson Hill narrowly 44.2% to Hill’s 44.6%, and besting Dan Moody 45.8% to 43.5%. The upside for Republicans: they will likely consolidate their support post-primary, and President Trump enjoys a larger favorability rating there (+7) than his win margin in the district last fall (+1)
The Montana special election in May for Ryan Zinke's former seat also looking shaky, with Quist (D) ahead of Gianforte (R) 48-41 in a Google Consumer Surveys poll. Quist supports single payer health insurance and is pro choice. Montana has voted Republican since 1996 but has had Democratic governors since 2004 and a tradition of electing moderate Democrats to the Senate.
 
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midlander12

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Mad to be talking about the next election already, but the US election cycle is pretty much non-stop. The following are the closest House seats in 2016, i.e within a margin of 10% or so:-

AL-2:- 55/45 GOP
AZ-1:- 51/43 Dem
AZ-2:- 57/43 GOP
CA-7:- 50/49 Dem
CA-10:- 52/47 GOP
CA-25:- 54/46 GOP
CA-49: 51/49 GOP
CO-6:- 51/42 GOP
Fl-7:- 52/48 Dem (gain)
Fl-13:-52/48 Dem(gain)
Fl-18:-54/43 GOP(gain)
FL-27:-55/45 GOP
IL-10:-52/48 Dem(gain)
IA-1:- 54/46 GOP
IA-2:- 54/46 Dem
KS-3:- 51/41 GOP
ME-2:- 55/45 GOP
MA-1:- 50/49 Dem
MA-2:- 47/45 GOP
MA-7:- 53/47 Dem
MA-8:- 51/49 Dem
NE-2:-49/47 GOP (gain)
NA-3:- 47/46 Dem (gain)
NA-4:- 48/44 Dem (gain)
NH-1:- 44/43 Dem gain
NH-2:-50/45 Dem
NJ-5:- 50/47 Dem gain
NJ-7:- 54/43 GOP
NY-3:- 52/48 Dem
NY-18:- 55/45 Dem
NY-19:- 55/45 GOP
NY-22:- 47/40 GOP
NC-13:- 56/44 GOP gain
OR-5:- 53/43 Dem
PA-8:- 54/46 GOP
PA-16:- 53/43 GOP
PA-17:-54/46 Dem
TX-7:- 56/44 GOP
TX-23:- 48/47 GOP
UT-4:- 53/42 GOP
VA-4:- 57/43 Dem gain
VA-10:- 53/47 GOP

Short of byelection gains, the Dems need 24 for a majority, so they would need to gain literally every single one of their targets above, plus a couple more, and avoid dropping any.

The Senate has only 2 potential Dem gains (Nevada and Arizona) versus up to 10 possible GOP gains.

So it's hard to see the Dems taking Congress on current figures, but if things continue to go south for Trump, who knows what might happen.
 

Accidental sock

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Counting down already?

CNN haven't even started a clock yet?

I, like many polito-nerds here, love an election......but this malarky is just getting weird.
 

livingstone

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In 2010, the GOP enjoyed a c9% swing away from the Dems and towards them. That was widely viewed as a massive rebuff to Obama - his famous shellacking.

In the two years before the 2010 midterms, Obama's lowest approval rating with Gallup was 43%. It was 45% in the last Gallup poll before the midterms. In the RCP average net approval ratings, his worst net rating was -6 (in September 2010). His lowest net ratings in his entire first term was -9.3%.

In 1994, the GOP achieved a c6% swing in the House elections. Clinton's last Gallup rating before that election was 48%. His lowest rating in the first two years of his term was 37%. His worst net favorability with Gallup was -15 in his first two years.

To put that in context - Trump's average net rating now is -10.8 and his net favorability with Gallup is -24.

So Trump is doing much worse than both Clinton and Obama in their first two years when both suffered significant losses. Now, perhaps he'll improve. And perhaps he'll be the first President in a long time whose popularity or unpopularity won't affect House elections in mid term. But if his ratings remained as they are - or got worse - we could expect swings against the GOP in the House worse than in 1994 or 2010.

A 6% swing would result in Dems 54%-GOP 43%. An 8% swing would be Dems 56%-GOP 41%.

Of course the Senate is a different matter since the contests will be disproportionately focused on Democratic incumbent in states won by Trump. But if Trump's performance continues as it has, the House could really be in play.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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In 2010, the GOP enjoyed a c9% swing away from the Dems and towards them. That was widely viewed as a massive rebuff to Obama - his famous shellacking.

In the two years before the 2010 midterms, Obama's lowest approval rating with Gallup was 43%. It was 45% in the last Gallup poll before the midterms. In the RCP average net approval ratings, his worst net rating was -6 (in September 2010). His lowest net ratings in his entire first term was -9.3%.

In 1994, the GOP achieved a c6% swing in the House elections. Clinton's last Gallup rating before that election was 48%. His lowest rating in the first two years of his term was 37%. His worst net favorability with Gallup was -15 in his first two years.

To put that in context - Trump's average net rating now is -10.8 and his net favorability with Gallup is -24.

So Trump is doing much worse than both Clinton and Obama in their first two years when both suffered significant losses. Now, perhaps he'll improve. And perhaps he'll be the first President in a long time whose popularity or unpopularity won't affect House elections in mid term. But if his ratings remained as they are - or got worse - we could expect swings against the GOP in the House worse than in 1994 or 2010.

A 6% swing would result in Dems 54%-GOP 43%. An 8% swing would be Dems 56%-GOP 41%.

Of course the Senate is a different matter since the contests will be disproportionately focused on Democratic incumbent in states won by Trump. But if Trump's performance continues as it has, the House could really be in play.
The GOP gerrymandered the House map and have pulled other stunts to consolidate power at the polls, the more cosmopolitan minded populations have been shifting coastal (hence what happened in 2016 with the election voters/results mismatches), and the Senate map is GOP favourable. Partisanship keeps rising too.

Quite frankly, it's still an uphill battle for the Dems with that in mind where IMO most Republicans would vote for anyone with an R regardless of character and fitness or their own self interests...they already do hence Trump in office.
 

Dame_Enda

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These 23 Republicans were elected in districts that voted for HRC.

 

Dame_Enda

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Dan Scavino, Trumps social media advisor, calling for primary challenges against Freedom Caucus, specifically Justin Amash (R-Michigan).

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/326850-top-trump-aide-calls-for-primary-challenge-to-freedom-caucus-member-amash

Also Matt Drudge thinks Congress deliberately sabotaging Trump.

[video=youtube;MTEDBdMu6_U]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTEDBdMu6_U[/video]

How early voting is going in #GA06 so far compared to 2014 midterms. GOP have no chance of winning the first round because of 5 or six candidates whereas the Dems are rallying to Jon Ossoff who is leading Karen Handel 40-20. Traditionally Dems win the first round but are overwhelmed in Round 2.

 
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Dame_Enda

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Latest Georgia District 6 early voting stats.

 

Dame_Enda

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Map of turnout in #GA06. So far in highest turnout areas, 20% of Dems who voted in 2016 have already voted early. I think this seat is in jeopardy in second round. Dems managed to unite around one candidate whereas GOP are victims of their ideological individualism by running loads of candidates splitting the vote. Of course events and all that.



On other hand Republican ahead 56-32 in Kansas 4th district (Mike Pompeos seat).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas's_4th_congressional_district_special_election,_2017#Polling
 
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Dame_Enda

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Dame_Enda

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Montana At-Large Special Election very close. Quist is a country-and-western singer. Trump won Montana 55-35 but the state has had a Democratic governor since 2004.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana's_at-large_congressional_district_special_election,_2017#Polling

Gianforte (R) Quist (D)
Google Consumer Surveys April 6-8, 2017 333 ± 5.4% 44% 45% 11% — —
Gravis Marketing April 6, 2017 1,222 ± 2.9% 50% 38% 3% 2% 7%
Google Consumer Surveys March 20, 2017 333 ± 4.2% 41% 48% 11% — —
 


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