Creighton: we "need to pass the Budget"



NotoriousFin

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Fair play to Lucinda, I'm not her biggest fan, and I disagree with the EU/IMF bailout, but at least she's showing substance, unlike the rest of the Deputies in Leinster House.
 

ppcoyle

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Pre-Budget PresentationUCD President’s Lunch
Professor Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
December 6, 2010


QUOTE
But without EU\IMF, the deficit would need to be reduced to zero immediately.
•And sovereign default would restrict ability to run deficits for years and raise the cost of any borrowing.
•We don’t have any choice other than deficit reduction.


What Karl Whelan is saying is that once we pull out of the agreement then we have to achieve cuts in government expenditure of between €15 - 20 billion immediately. I have not heard any of those advocating the Plan B of no bailout, and a haircut of bondholders, explaining how the general public on average salaries would get through the immediate major disruption that would be caused by Plan B.

Pass the budget, hold a GE as soon as possible, get the new government in place and then play hardball with Europe, the IMF, and bondholders in a carefully thought out manner with a good negotiating team.
 

Rocky

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First you have to respect the fact that Lucinda is standing up for what she believes in and making an intelligent argument and not appealing to the lowest level as so many others do. Her motivation in doing this seems to be honourable and I think she should be respected for that.

One can argue that these things should be played out within the party and Lucinda should have made her argument and when that failed just accepted the party's decision and maybe she should have. However it's her right to disagree with the party if she feels she should and it's a pity more FFers can't do, especially on national issues like this rather than parish pump crap. I imagine if she does go against the party, they will remove the whip and that's their right as well. One can also argue that she is just doing this for media attention or she believes that this will play to a number of voters in DSE and there is no way to prove that either way, but I'll choose to believe that that isn't her motivation.

However I do think she's wrong and not simply for political reasons. We haven't seen the budget yet, but it will most likely follow on from the 4 year plan and that is a long way from FG's four year plan released this week and a long way from what Ireland needs. It is simply more of the same cutting and taxing with no larger plan, no vision and no idea of how it will stimulate the Irish economy in anyway and that hasn't worked and nor will it work.

I'd also question will it bring the certainty that Lucinda believes. For the last few years, we have been constantly told that this new measure will bring certainty and has failed and I doubt this will be any different. There is also the issue with the fact that people both at home and abroad are basically waiting for the election to see what happens, Elanie Byrne touched upon this in the Times today, and I don't think there will be any real certainty until that election happens and people see how the new government shapes up after that.

I don't know what will happen if the next budget fails. But technically we have enough money to go until Summer, the IMF and in particular the EU can't just let us fall, not that easily anyway, and it will only be a month in the difference. It also seems that there is a far better chance that it will be possible to renegotiate the IMF deals if the budget does fail, as the budget does seem to lock it in, as will another few months as we wait for the election. In a perfect world Fine Gael and Labour would be there for at least six months now and this would be their budget, but we aren't living in a perfect world.

On what is politically best for Fine Gael. Of course bringing in an unpopular budget won't help FG and any budget they bring in now won't be popular. However it's far better to be unpopular in the first month of their term than in the last month. The budgets FG presented this week was very different from FF's 4 year plan and I think it would have a better chance of improving Ireland's prospects and that is obviously in FG's long-term interest if they are in government. If they were to do the same thing as FF, of course it's best for FF to bring it in, but if they aren't and they argue they aren't, then it's better for them to bring in their budget and get the benefit from that as it helps Ireland, rather then by stuck with a fait accompli, which will do nothing to lift Ireland out of this.

Just my thoughts.
 

consultant

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So lucinda will vote for a budget that she hasn't seen proposed by a government she doesn't trust to ensure a loan agreement, the terms of which she doesn't fully agree with, is committed to.

"The National Interest" seems to be heavily skewed against, not only the Irish person in general, but also principles of logic, sense, integrity and decency.

Lucinda you and 90% of your collegues wouldn't know the national interest if it tapped you on the shoulder and punched you in the face, before stealing your purse to buy food for its kids.

Go work as a barrister - you bring nothing to the national debate other than having people question the concept of universal sufferage.

Dublin SE - WTF happened there - are they messing with the water or what??
johngormley, Lucinda Creighton and Chris Andrews - political equivalant of used toilet paper.[/
QUOTE]

Interesting.

A couple of months back there was a highly-publicised series of incidents of inadequate crowd control at the new Aviva Stadium. Indeed, there was a much-researched thread on this site.

As someone who had experienced the problems on three seperate occasions and on the latter, had feared serious injuries or even fatalities were probable unless drastic action was taken, I contacted the IRFU, Aviva stadium management and emailed each of the thee politicians plus Ruairi Quinn expressing my fears.

Quinn responded immediately to my mail and initiated actions of which I was kept informed. gormless's personal assistant(?) responded after about two weeks effectively telling me to leave the minister alone and not to bother him. Neither Creighton nor Andrews made any reply.

For the record, I do not support the concept of TD's being responsible for pot-holes and medical cards. Nor am I trying to derail this thread in any way. However, the possibility of someone being killed or maimed does strike me as a serious situation and the fact that LC has no concern about that nor about what the electorate might want in relation to the budget is significant commentry on her suitability as a politician and representative of people.
 

Furze

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The budget will pass. There is little difference in our political class.

BL possibly has some outrageous element (red herring) that will cause uproar throughout the House. There will be fist waving etc etc. Steam will be released, the odd (SF) explusion, then BL will propose a suitable amendment. A great victory will be claimed as they march head down to vote Tá.


My interest at this stage is will he utter "I commend this budget to the house"
 

ivnryn

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In broad terms I don't think the rigid application of whips always aids democracy and as such I would like to see more politicians of all persuasions being more open to standing up for what they think rather than simply sticking to what the whip tells them.
Fair enough, but if only the opposition does it, then you are giving free reign to FF.
 

Libero

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Lucinda's and my own personal politics would be far apart .... but fair play to her for taking a full and public stance

Amazing how all the loyal party supporters who claim they would love to see and end to gombeenism, parish pump and insider politics resort to form as soon as someone is genuinely independently minded..... more independent speakers, speaking their mind and not timidly towing some party line in order to curry favour is whats needed in all parties and across the political classes

Well done Lucinda
Creighton's piece doesn't demonstrate much independent thinking.

It repeats a set of talking points that we're used to by now, having heard them from an array of creatures paying us day visits from Planet FF: Noel Whelan, the junior ministers sent onto the radio, the worst Finance minister in Europe, etc.

We know them all by this stage: "anger is not a policy", "need to bring certainty", "national interest"... FFS, the daft biddy put a supreme cliché - "difficult choices" - in the title of her brainstorm.

Dublin South East will lose Gormley as a TD, but with Creighton, it will keep someone equally committed to recycling.

This crap is the opposite of independent thought, from a TD putting on a bad impression of statesmanship.

If she was going to take others' opinions on loan, she could at least do it from someone who offers a coherent and credible economic analysis for supporting the budget. For all his strengths, fellow lawyer Dessie O'Malley doesn't provide that to her or to us.

I wrote at the time of the bank guarantee that FG's support for it was utterly unsurprising. Whenever the country is in a tizzy, FG finds it hard to go against the consensus view of the "sensible" professionals who provide the officer class of the party at a local level, who are on first name terms with the TDs and who write the cheques to pay for all those posters. Right now, those people are of a view (and it's always a consensus view; they don't do nuanced deliberation) that the budget should pass, and Lucinda must have been taking a lot of phone calls from the doctors, lawyers, big firm accountants and other worthies of Dublin 4 and 6. Those people will always drive the views of Fine Gael and only a fool thinks this is anything other than a more genteel form of gombeenism. That said, posts like Rocky's provide some hope, though I imagine he knows what it feels like inside FG to have some 50-something professional pull rank on him, probably with the same sort of Tory rhetoric that's infected Creighton.
 

culmore

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The dumb blonde is on a sole run again, but the mayoman will have the last laugh on the mayowoman
 

ivnryn

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The election is a minimum of a few months away - there is no question of the current Government being allowed to get us out of anything.
Presumably, you meant maximum?

However, you are possibly right. The only reason that we think the election is near is because the Greens said so.

I am starting to feel that it is all just part of a longer con by the government. By holding out the carrot of an early election, FF/Gr get FG to de facto support the budget.

Once FG have trusted FF AGAIN, they will pull the carrot, as things will be nice and stable after Christmas.
 

Rocky

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Presumably, you meant maximum?

However, you are possibly right. The only reason that we think the election is near is because the Greens said so.

I am starting to feel that it is all just part of a longer con by the government. By holding out the carrot of an early election, FF/Gr get FG to de facto support the budget.

Once FG have trusted FF AGAIN, they will pull the carrot, as things will be nice and stable after Christmas.
All the evidence suggests that Fine Gael will oppose the budget, among other things Creighton's solo run doesn't make sense if they don't and I think Noonan actually said as much, so I find people constantly repeating stuff like this very odd.

I think people may be believing what they want to believe.
 

Skin

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In a blogpost on her website today, Fine Gael TD for Dublin South East writes that the budget needs to be passed in order to restore certainty into the economy.

Her website is down at present (something they're aware of), but they've passed on to me her post which is below in full.
Wow, this woman is scared. Scared of standing up against the elite, scared of standing up for the ordinary people and those that are marginalised. The proposed fiscal 'correction' and the EU/IMF loans, do nothing but serve to keep the political status quo on this island.

This is a "dont rock the boat folks, we are in touching distance of power. Ok, so we will have to toe the line with the EU/IMF but so what...think of those cabinet seats, think how important we are going to be in just a few short months" plea.
 

neiphin

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FG have lost my vote for this which is a pity. My man would have been Richard Bruton but if he is the same colleigate as that silly lady he should get out quickly!
that must be the hundredth time fine gael have lost your vote
 

Vote_No_on_Everything

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FF & FG are one & the same, all traitors
 

needle_too

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that must be the hundredth time fine gael have lost your vote
Well in typical FF fashion he probably has a hundred more to spare....
 

Ceartgoleor

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Anyone who regards Dessie O Malley as a personal hero indeed a hero of any sort needs their head examined.

I used to think all FG had to do was stay standing to win this election. I have changed my mind - they need to stay standing and stop talking nonsense or stop talking full stop.

Why would anyone bother to vote FG when FF are simply a higher calibre of an identical product. The FF swing votes and there will be alot of them, won't be going to FG in any significant numbers based on their performance to date.

And we havnt had the debacle of the budget yet with FG hypocritically opposing it in public while privately praying that it gets passed.

Let's be brutally honest - FG have been pathetic as the main opposition party. Why would people think they will be any better in government. They should be attacking Lowery and HealyRae instead of ignoring their support for the budget. People can see through their charade.

If the budget get through tomorrow it will be thanks to FG. If it is stopped and the government falls it will be because of SF & L.

It is hard to guage the genius of a political party that contrives always be on the losing side!
 


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