CSO revises up number of foreign nationals by over 100,000.

freedomlover

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Just about an hour before P.ie went down on 5 March, the CSO released their latest figures for the number of foreign nationals at work in Ireland in November 2007. These show a huge increase on the previous figures for August 2007. The actual figures are:

August 2007:

(1) number of foreign nationals at work 248,700
(2) number of foreign nationals unemployed 16,200
(3) number of foreign nationals outside labour force 77,500
total number of foreign nationals 341,600 ((1)+(2)+(3))

November 2007:

(1) number of foreign nationals at work 334,700
(2) number of foreign nationals unemployed 20,000
(3) number of foreign nationals outside labour force 113,400
total number of foreign nationals 468,100 ((1)+(2)+(3))

So, on the surface it appears that in 3 months the total number of foreign nationals increased 126,500, of which the number of foreign nationals at work increased by 86,700. These are astronomical increases for 3 months.

However, the CSO say that much of the apparent increase was actually because they had previously been under-estimating the number of foreign nationals. I'm surprised this fact didn't get more news coverage.

I should make it clear that, as I'm in favour of immigration, I'm quite happy with these figures, and indeed I welcome them as a sign of Ireland's vibrant labour market. However, others, who may be opposed to the high level of immigration into Ireland, may not be so happy and indeed may see something sinister (I don't) in the fact that the previous CSO figures were wrong.
 


theyshootPDsdontthey

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Jaysus the price of houses will really tank when these guys go home. ;) ;)
 

Trampas

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Re: CSO revises up number of foreign nationals by over 100,0

freedomlover said:
Just about an hour before P.ie went down on 5 March, the CSO released their latest figures for the number of foreign nationals at work in Ireland in November 2007. These show a huge increase on the previous figures for August 2007. The actual figures are:

August 2007:

(1) number of foreign nationals at work 248,700
(2) number of foreign nationals unemployed 16,200
(3) number of foreign nationals outside labour force 77,500
total number of foreign nationals 341,600 ((1)+(2)+(3))

November 2007:

(1) number of foreign nationals at work 334,700
(2) number of foreign nationals unemployed 20,000
(3) number of foreign nationals outside labour force 113,400
total number of foreign nationals 468,100 ((1)+(2)+(3))

So, on the surface it appears that in 3 months the total number of foreign nationals increased 126,500, of which the number of foreign nationals at work increased by 86,700. These are astronomical increases for 3 months.

However, the CSO say that much of the apparent increase was actually because they had previously been under-estimating the number of foreign nationals. I'm surprised this fact didn't get more news coverage.

I should make it clear that, as I'm in favour of immigration, I'm quite happy with these figures, and indeed I welcome them as a sign of Ireland's vibrant labour market. However, others, who may be opposed to the high level of immigration into Ireland, may not be so happy and indeed may see something sinister (I don't) in the fact that the previous CSO figures were wrong.

OK - so you have established your PC credentials (several times over)
Perhaps you would care to place a limit on those numbers, or is there any limit at all ? Is there any point at which our vibrancy and enrichment runneth over ?
 

Twin Towers

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Only in Ireland could the piece of crap calling itself Census 2006 not end up with those responsible being shown the door. Only in Ireland could such implausible rubbish and errant waste of taxpayers money go completely unremarked upon by both government and opposition.
 

NotDevsSon

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It is quite normal in countries with high immigrant levels for census figures to be way out.

Among the reasons are

1. Immigrants often share flats and apartments with other immigrants behind the landlord's back. (In one place I lived in, the next door flat had a leak. I went in to help the 'couple' who lived in the one-bedroom flat move their things. To my amusement I found that there were 14 people living there, with the large sitting room covered in mattresses. We Irish cannot complain. We did exactly the same when we immigrated. My late uncle, when he emigrated to the UK in the 1950s, lived with 8 other Irish people in a single room that the landlady thought contained two. She once arrived and somehow never spotted that there were three people crammed into the wardrobe hiding, and a fourth under the kitchen table - in those days people used to have long table cloths!)

2. Many immigrants cannot read English well, and so were not likely to fill out a form.

3. Many immigrants, particularly from the former Soviet Bloc and China, come from countries where they experienced intrusive governments spying on people. So they instinctively dodge signing any forms anywhere.

That happens everywhere. To this day we have no idea how many first generation Irish people are in the US. The US has no idea how many Mexicans there are in the US.

To put it bluntly, sh1t happens. Whether the immigrants are Irish in the US or the UK, Chinese in Ireland, Nigerians in other parts of Africa, Poles in France and Germany, or wherever, immigrant numbers will always be way out on census returns. We did it to the Brits and the Americans. Our immigrants do it to us. So census returns are constantly changed, and immigrant numbers increased, as information from other sources - travel plans, workplace studies, etc - become available.
 

Catalpa

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Revised migration estimates for
2006 also show that while the number of immigrants increased between 2006 and 2007 the greater increase in the number of emigrants ensured that net migration to April 2007 fell by 4,500.


http://www.cso.ie/newsevents/pressrelea ... 2-2006.htm

These jokers would have us believe that net migration actually fell by 4,500 in 2006/2007! :roll:

For that to be true huge numbers of Irish people would have had to emigrate to compensate for the huge numbers of foreign natioanls arriving here in the same time period!

I don't trust the CSO at all - their numbers are simply not credible!

Heads should roll in there IMO... :x
 

Catalpa

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NotDevsSon said:
It is quite normal in countries with high immigrant levels for census figures to be way out.

Among the reasons are

1. Immigrants often share flats and apartments with other immigrants behind the landlord's back. (In one place I lived in, the next door flat had a leak. I went in to help the 'couple' who lived in the one-bedroom flat move their things. To my amusement I found that there were 14 people living there, with the large sitting room covered in mattresses. We Irish cannot complain. We did exactly the same when we immigrated. My late uncle, when he emigrated to the UK in the 1950s, lived with 8 other Irish people in a single room that the landlady thought contained two. She once arrived and somehow never spotted that there were three people crammed into the wardrobe hiding, and a fourth under the kitchen table - in those days people used to have long table cloths!)

2. Many immigrants cannot read English well, and so were not likely to fill out a form.

3. Many immigrants, particularly from the former Soviet Bloc and China, come from countries where they experienced intrusive governments spying on people. So they instinctively dodge signing any forms anywhere.

That happens everywhere. To this day we have no idea how many first generation Irish people are in the US. The US has no idea how many Mexicans there are in the US.

To put it bluntly, sh1t happens. Whether the immigrants are Irish in the US or the UK, Chinese in Ireland, Nigerians in other parts of Africa, Poles in France and Germany, or wherever, immigrant numbers will always be way out on census returns. We did it to the Brits and the Americans. Our immigrants do it to us. So census returns are constantly changed, and immigrant numbers increased, as information from other sources - travel plans, workplace studies, etc - become available.
All due respect to yourself but Catalpa pointed out these very factors long before the Census 2006 ever took place and took a huge amount of flak here for having the temerity to suggest such a scenario!

Rather amazing that none of these so called 'experts' had the wit or the cop on to see this one coming!

How can they justfy their salaries producing rubbish like this?
:roll:
 

ibis

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Catalpa said:
NotDevsSon said:
It is quite normal in countries with high immigrant levels for census figures to be way out.

Among the reasons are

1. Immigrants often share flats and apartments with other immigrants behind the landlord's back. (In one place I lived in, the next door flat had a leak. I went in to help the 'couple' who lived in the one-bedroom flat move their things. To my amusement I found that there were 14 people living there, with the large sitting room covered in mattresses. We Irish cannot complain. We did exactly the same when we immigrated. My late uncle, when he emigrated to the UK in the 1950s, lived with 8 other Irish people in a single room that the landlady thought contained two. She once arrived and somehow never spotted that there were three people crammed into the wardrobe hiding, and a fourth under the kitchen table - in those days people used to have long table cloths!)

2. Many immigrants cannot read English well, and so were not likely to fill out a form.

3. Many immigrants, particularly from the former Soviet Bloc and China, come from countries where they experienced intrusive governments spying on people. So they instinctively dodge signing any forms anywhere.

That happens everywhere. To this day we have no idea how many first generation Irish people are in the US. The US has no idea how many Mexicans there are in the US.

To put it bluntly, sh1t happens. Whether the immigrants are Irish in the US or the UK, Chinese in Ireland, Nigerians in other parts of Africa, Poles in France and Germany, or wherever, immigrant numbers will always be way out on census returns. We did it to the Brits and the Americans. Our immigrants do it to us. So census returns are constantly changed, and immigrant numbers increased, as information from other sources - travel plans, workplace studies, etc - become available.
All due respect to yourself but Catalpa pointed out these very factors long before the Census 2006 ever took place and took a huge amount of flak here for having the temerity to suggest such a scenario!
All due respect but you were simply making up enormous figures based on your prejudices. The CSO figures still don't look anything like yours.

Catalpa said:
Rather amazing that none of these so called 'experts' had the wit or the cop on to see this one coming!

How can they justfy their salaries producing rubbish like this?
:roll:
Perhaps because when they're wrong they admit it, go back and do the figures again.
 

JCSkinner

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Frankly, it's now self-evident that not only did the authorities here get it completely wrong when they said mass-immigration would not occur here, they're still getting it wrong by having no clue whatsoever how many non-nationals are actually here.
 

freedomlover

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The error the CSO admit to was not in the 2006 census (I have no idea whether or not there could be a further error in their census figures). Rather, it was the 2006 census that revealed the previous errors. The erroneous figures they gave in their quarterly employment reports up to August 2007 were based on estimates and methodology they had been using before the 2006 census. Population estimates in between census are generally quite prone to error in every country, as they are often based on little more than counting arrivals and departures at airports and ports (and in Ireland the border screws this methodology up even further). Then they carried out a full census in April 2006 and this showed the previous estimates to be wrong. They finally corrected the errors that the 2006 census revealed in their most recent quarterly employment report for November 2007 published two weeks ago. I have no idea why it took them almost two years to correct the previous estimates as the census was in April 2006.
 

civic_critic

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freedomlover said:
Population estimates in between census are generally quite prone to error in every country, as they are often based on little more than counting arrivals and departures at airports and ports
In Ireland the intercensal estimates are based upon the Quarterly National Household Survey - an employment survey co-opted by the CSO for the purpose of estimating immigration by asking a question once a year in April about where you had been the previous April.

That is the sole source of public intercensal immigration statistics for Ireland. Although the CSO states that it uses other sources including the PPS numbers there is no evidence that this is so and they told me when I asked them that the QNHS was their sole source of migration statistics.

In a country the size of Ireland, where an error of 100,000 people represents 2.2% of the total population and where such a discrepancy has existed every year for the last several years between the published figures for gross immigration and the figures for PPS numbers issued, we are dealing not with margins of error but with gross fraud.

It should also be borne in mind that the issue of immigration and multi-culturalism on this island should be viewed in an all Ireland context, within which many of its real effects as well as some of the probable intentions behind it become evident. What we are witnessing is social engineering for economic and, particularly, political reasons.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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These figures are particularly encouraging in terms of the improvement to the overall employment environment which they represent.

If the economy truly was experiencing a structural shift to downturn and recession, one would expect a significant rise in the number of newcomers in unemployment far and above the rise in employment. This is because newcomers have a poorer understanding of rights, are more marginal in the host society, more likely to work on contract/agency basis, more prevalent in sectors with poorer job security like waitressing/retail etc.

Instead, what arises from this review is a 25.7% rise in the number of newcomers in employment against a more muted 19% increase in those unemployed. This significant increase in employment which is appreciably stronger than that of the increase in unemployment suggests that it remains a very conducive labour market in which newcomers can find positions and fill vacancies. Indeed the 3-month moving average in FÁS/ESRI vacancies has been rising in recent times and reports from the CSO such as these point to continued underlying strength in Ireland's economy.
 

An Gilladaker

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Frankly, it's now self-evident that not only did the authorities here get it completely wrong when they said mass-immigration would not occur here, they're still getting it wrong by having no clue whatsoever how many non-nationals are actually here.
3 years on nothing has changed
 


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