CSO: S3 Unemployment Surges to 22.6%

Cassandra Syndrome

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The Quarterly National Household Survey has just been released from the CSO. Despite the Brians buffoons chestbeating of dropping unemployment, the real truth shows that the levels of unemployment and underemployment are increasing.

The real figure is even higher. Its a very detailed report, but that figure is on page 22.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

More to follow....
 


Cassandra Syndrome

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Ur a legend :)

Are those at work up or down in the last 3 months?
Cheers Hammer!

Employment is down to 1.851 Million, full time down to 1.436 Million. The full time official unemployment is up to 299,000

Its a day of statistics porn today, about 5 reports including the Earnings and CPI.

This one alone is 40 pages with 25 tables to analyse.
 

ChickenBiryani

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The recent drop in the live register was almost certainly due to seasonal factors and Xmas hirings.

I would expect it to increase again in January.
 

hammer

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So 70,900 real people have lost employment in Ireland in the last 12 months.

That is scary and obviously a truer reflection of what is actually happening through unemployment & emigration.

That equates to 194 real people losing their jobs every day, including Saturdays & Sundays.

FAS predicted 238 per day at the start of the year. FAS were fairly accurate.

These carefully choregraphed job announcements from IDA do not even dent these figures :(

80 jobs over 3 years etc. with IDA support, great but utterly meaningless to have any real effect :(
 

Chrisco

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The recent drop in the live register was almost certainly due to seasonal factors and Xmas hirings.

I would expect it to increase again in January.
It is seasonally adjusted.
 

collina

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The Quarterly National Household Survey has just been released from the CSO. Despite the Brians buffoons chestbeating of dropping unemployment, the real truth shows that the levels of unemployment and underemployment are increasing.

The real figure is even higher. Its a very detailed report, but that figure is on page 22.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

More to follow....
Don't think that 22.6 is strictly unemployed.
 

gijoe

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If you look at the data in Annex 1 the overall unemployment rate for Q3 is 13.6% but for East Europeans it is 20%.
 

ChickenBiryani

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It is seasonally adjusted.

I appreciate that, however its widely acknowledged that "seasonal adjustments" don't tend to reflect reality in times of crisis, and are more applicable to normalised periods.

I wonder how many businesses for example, are just hanging on to get 1 more Xmas out of the way?
 

gijoe

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Don't think that 22.6 is strictly unemployed.
S3 is a measure of unemployed, underemployed (part-time/short-time workers who would work full-time if they could) and discouraged (not looking for work per se because of labour market conditions but would work if it was on offer) workers. It is the widest measure but no less accurate than the official unemployment rate.
 

Chrisco

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I appreciate that, however its widely acknowledged that "seasonal adjustments" don't tend to reflect reality in times of crisis, and are more applicable to normalised periods.

I wonder how many businesses for example, are just hanging on to get 1 more Xmas out of the way?
True enough, and is what happened this time last year, IIRC, before the massacre that was January 2010.
 

supamolli

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If you look at the data in Annex 1 the overall unemployment rate for Q3 is 13.6% but for East Europeans it is 20%.
Or conclusive evidence that Eastern Europeans are predominantly employed in the construction and services sectors. It all depends on whether you are looking to understand the figures or looking to use them to justify a particular point of view.
 

hammer

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CSO seem to be batting for the Government as well. Seem to justify everything "stabilising...........but still falling"

Surprised that all public servants dont have a 365 days "wear your jersey day"
 

adrem

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a 52,000 fall in the labour force and a 19,000 increase in unemployment make up the 71,000 fall in employment levels.

Does the labour force fall with retirements? Do the Early retirees from the PS go into a fall in labour force or where do they end up?

The 22.6% is recorded as S3 (revised methodology) - the number on the previous methodolgy is 18.6%. The relationship between this number and the unemployment number can be analysed back into the "good ole days" in 2005/6 when unemployment was c5%. At that time the S3 number was c30-50% above the S1 number. So when you compare the numbers the relationship looks pretty much the same as it was then (18.6/14.6 = 127%).

So - if you want to use the 22.6% then by all means work away - however you are then arguing that unemployment (S3) has increased from 13.9% to 22.6% over the past 2 years. That's an increase of 62.6%. Whereas using S1 is actually more stark - the rate increased from 7.5% to 14.6% - a 95% increase !!

Ah, statistics - they're a hoor really.
 

hammer

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Scary that 1.4 million full time workers are more or less keeping the entire country going :(

This figure will fall another 50,000 next year.

Of the 1.4 million 330,000 or so are public servants.

That leaves only 1 million approx. private sector workers.

The Corporate Sector has paid nothing extra in taxes during the depression.

These 1 million private sector workers will get "hammered" in 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014...............
 

alonso

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Ok CS I understand the stats but the thread title is very very very misleading. UE has not "surged" to 22.6%, it has risen or stabilised at 13.6% (a terrible figure which is only stabiliing as the govt has forced tens of thousands of people to leave)

22.6% are not unemployed, they include the underemployed and this figure has not just suddenly risen or "surged". It has steadily risen since Q2 2009 having surged, like the Live Register and UE rate, in 2008.

We need honesty on both sides of the analysis and hyperbole serves no-one. This thread is as useful as the ones DC opened which hid the stories on the monthly LR returns - and remember I agreed with you on those ones, as I had opened factual threads with complete titles at the same time which were merged

edit - Unemployment is actiually 13.9 % - the last 10 years of Fianna Fail have caused this rate to go up by a factor of 4. ************************************g bastards
 
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alonso

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unbelievable though - 300,000 drop in "In Employment" from the peak in Q3 2007 and an associated c200,000 increase in "Unemployed" in the same period,

A Fianna Fail catatrophe that should never be forgotten
 

hammer

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BIFFO thinks he will get re-elected :)

It was all Patrick Nearys fault !!!! We all partied !!!! It was the lenders !!!! We are where we are !!!!

Remember we do not have an intelligent electorate. Why else would we have given Bertie 41% of first preference votes :)
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Interesting pointers to migration-trends: the numbers of foreign-nationals in the workforce has fallen by 40,000 this year, compared to a 10,000 fall in the numbers of Irish nationals. That suggests that despite hype in the media, the bulk of emigrants are still foreign-nationals. The numbers of Irish nationals who are unemployed fell by 2,000, while it fell by 4,600 among foreign-nationals from the EU-27 states. In that context, the press would do well to refrain from "going back to the 80'/50's" hysteria which risks talking us into a Depression.
 

hammer

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The local economy is in a depression. FACT.

Multinational profits have pushed us into a recession :)
 


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