D1ND: What now for the GFA and Irish-British relations?


ruserious

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It's the 29 March 2019 and the UK has crashed out of the EU without a deal. It is D1ND or "day one no deal".

The North-South pillar of the GFA is effectively over with both governments and the EU scrambling to secure the world's newest hard border. Armies of both States are amassing on either side of the border in support of police and customs/immigration officials. Progress and ever closer co-operation between north and south is over. Relations east and west are poisoned.

What ought the government do from here, if this scenario plays out? It could very well be our reality in just two months time. I think a lot depends on how nationalists react in the north. If there are mass calls for unification, then the Irish government should make that a priority and focus our entire Northern policy on achieving that outcome.

Does the GFA have only two months to live? Do articles 2 and 3 resurface?
 

rainmaker

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It's the 29 March 2019 and the UK has crashed out of the EU without a deal. It is D1ND or "day one no deal".

The North-South pillar of the GFA is effectively over with both governments and the EU scrambling to secure the world's newest hard border. Armies of both States are amassing on either side of the border in support of police and customs/immigration officials. Progress and ever closer co-operation between north and south is over. Relations east and west are poisoned.

What ought the government do from here, if this scenario plays out? It could very well be our reality in just two months time. I think a lot depends on how nationalists react in the north. If there are mass calls for unification, then the Irish government should make that a priority and focus our entire Northern policy on achieving that outcome.

Does the GFA have only two months to live? Do articles 2 and 3 resurface?
The army will not be massing on the UK side of the border, whatever Leo said. As for a UI, I think it is a very possible outcome depending on when a poll is called.

Not sure this really warrants it's own thread as it's been covered comprehensively in other threads.
 

hollandia

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It's the 29 March 2019 and the UK has crashed out of the EU without a deal. It is D1ND or "day one no deal".

The North-South pillar of the GFA is effectively over with both governments and the EU scrambling to secure the world's newest hard border. Armies of both States are amassing on either side of the border in support of police and customs/immigration officials. Progress and ever closer co-operation between north and south is over. Relations east and west are poisoned.

What ought the government do from here, if this scenario plays out? It could very well be our reality in just two months time. I think a lot depends on how nationalists react in the north. If there are mass calls for unification, then the Irish government should make that a priority and focus our entire Northern policy on achieving that outcome.

Does the GFA have only two months to live? Do articles 2 and 3 resurface?
Articles 2 and 3 won't resurface without a referendum, and tbh, a northern referendum on unity is more likely to occur first.

Let's not forget that in the scenario you describe, there will be an awful lot of discommoded unionists - and I'm not talking about soft unionists or middle of the road alliance types who have in recent polls indicated their preference unity in the event of no deal - more so, I'm talking about unionists (farmers, business people etc) who will find their businesses and livelihoods threatened by the new economic realities.

Ramping up tensions immediately wouldn't be a good idea, but assessing where the land lies will be the key to how things progress from there.
 

Skin the Goat

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It's the 29 March 2019 and the UK has crashed out of the EU without a deal. It is D1ND or "day one no deal".

The North-South pillar of the GFA is effectively over with both governments and the EU scrambling to secure the world's newest hard border. Armies of both States are amassing on either side of the border in support of police and customs/immigration officials. Progress and ever closer co-operation between north and south is over. Relations east and west are poisoned.
View attachment 1696 :rolleyes2:
 

between the bridges

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Like the grate Magnus Pompey moi will merely stamp moi's foot and the legions of god's chosen few will dig up the judgement day stash's and the pale horse will sow the reaping winds...
 

between the bridges

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Unless it's a Thursday, can't miss curry nite at the kneebreakers...
 

Niall996

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The UK is out on WTO rules. British famers are in despair. British industries are in shock and panic. British fisherman are delighted but soon find they have no market for all the fish they can catch. The UK Gov is a rogue state that has reneged on two international agreements. A racist nation that has spend years rubbishing the EU. A prime minister that has been shown to be a liar and an incompetent. An now, today, the UK approaches the EU to begin their trade negotiations! And ask for tariff free frictionless trade and all the elements that they had until yesterday. LOL.
 
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PBP voter

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The hard border went before the GFA.


Their is no mention of a hard or soft border in the GFA.

I guess the Blair,Ahern,Adams,Hume etc never thought the UK would leave the EU.

Anything Bill Clinton or any US president had a part in is always doomed to failure.
 

Newrybhoy

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The UK is out on WTO rules. British famers are in despair. British industries are in shock and panic. British fisherman are delighted but soon find they have no market for all the fish they can catch. The UK Gov is a rogue state that has reneged on two international agreements. A racist nation that has spend years rubbishing the EU. A prime minister that has been shown to be a liar and an incompetent. An now, today, the UK approaches the EU to begin their trade negotiations! And ask for tariff free frictionless trade and all the elements that they had until yesterday. LOL.
But Nail hangs on in the UK grasping his benefits as tightly as ever.
 

Mickeymac

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The Irish lobby in the United States will ensure there will be no trade deals with Britain until partition is gone....trust me.
 

farnaby

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The most optimistic outcome from the the most pessimistic (but realistic) scenario of D1ND: nothing happens on the border. Both sides discuss - in slo-mo - what needs to happen. The EU institutions grudgingly turn a blind eye for a while. WTO tariffs start to bite in Britain leading quickly to popular support for the customs union if not the single market. New referendum or GE. Norway+ result.
 
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