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Daft.ie Q4 Report


Johnnybaii

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Oct 6, 2010
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1,752
Latest Daft.ie Quarterly Report is out and makes for interesting if unsurprising reading.
 
2013: After six years, time to build again?
 
One potential headline grabber is prices in South County Dublin appear to be stabilizing (the only area that did not have a YOY fall in asking prices) which tallies with what I’m hearing anecdotally on the ground, whether this is a result of a last hurrah thanks to the ending of MIR is a good question. I personally think that the increasing inequality in our society is going to underline and reinforce class divides even more firmly in the future, i.e. people with money will be jostling for houses in the areas they deem as safe, good services, good schools etc
 
On the other hand there are always peaks in troughs on the way up and on the way down in any bubble/crash so maybe this is just the dead cat playing out in SCD?
 
Of more interest to me personally are the drops in Cork, circa 8% YOY drops in asking prices in Cork City (over 13% in the County area), even allowing for the removal of MIR I will on average be €10k better off renting in 2013 versus 2012 assuming same/similar rent and mortgage payments. There is a definite tightening of supply occurring at the moment in what are considered ‘good areas’ but what effect the supposed changes to repossessions has in March is anyone’s guess, will there be more supply? How quickly etc.
 
Interesting year ahead, I think both I and my mortgage application form will sit on the fence until late Q2 at the earliest.

Edit: I should probably add that I am not for a moment suggesting a halt to price drops or that there will be a V shaped 'recovery' in prices etc. not with the arrears problems, emigration, further austerity budgets etc. I'm just thinking out loud re the year ahead more than anything.
 
Last edited:

Analyzer

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Feb 14, 2011
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46,201
The Irish banks are concentrating their loan books on Dublin, and Cork city.

The state is borrowing 18 Billion Euro per annum from the troika to prop up the professional class, and the institutional state. A lot of that money ends up in South Dublin.

South East Dublin housing prices are still absurd.
 

meriwether

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12,604
I'm watching this closely, as in the near future (a few years0 I will be looking to buy.

Everything tells em that the fundamentals do not support a rise in prices - tax, income, emigration, house taxes, interest rate rise in the near future, over hang of supply.

In relation to the last point (overhang) there are nuances within this. There is an overhang of supply in certain areas that will never, ever be satisfied - think ghost estates in midlands and west. Tese houses are viaryally worthless.

However, the point doe snot exist tpo the same extent in other areas - areas of dublin, most likely south dublin. There's no way that all of south dublin could see a price increase, but I wouldn't be stunned if the area between 3 and 7 o'clock (put Dublin on a clockface) was more resilient than other areas. The scope of that resilience is debatable. I'd imagine that the Green luas line means that a large part of Dublin is now reasonably desirable to live in, if you work in town.
 

friendlyfire

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Shock,horror we only need Parlon out next looking to build new houses....fecking jokers will never learn!
 

bob3367

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I doubt that will be any significant movement in House Prices for a while yet, although there is again antedotal evidence in our area at least, of houses been sold, and some rather quickly.

Lets be honest here also nobody wants a return to the 2000's, but we do need a functioning housing market, and by extention a functioning construction sector.

Personally I would like to see a 3% yoy increase in prices, not that we are selling or anything.
 

bob3367

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Shock,horror we only need Parlon out next looking to build new houses....fecking jokers will never learn!
Apparently Abbey are starting a new build in Shankill.
 

meriwether

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I doubt that will be any significant movement in House Prices for a while yet, although there is again antedotal evidence in our area at least, of houses been sold, and some rather quickly.

Lets be honest here also nobody wants a return to the 2000's, but we do need a functioning housing market, and by extention a functioning construction sector.

Personally I would like to see a 3% yoy increase in prices, not that we are selling or anything.
This is correct. Labour mobility, for instance, is affected by an inefficient housing market.

Of course, the definition of inefficient is up for debate. Inefficiency could be the result of too high asking prices (solution: realistic seller expectations) or bank lending policies.
 

Rebel_Yell

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Nov 5, 2009
Messages
657
Houses in Cork in the better areas parts of Douglas, Blackrock, Ballinlough are selling quite quickly and at the asking price from what I have heard. However, the Q1 figures will be more interesting as the MIR deadline will have created an imperative to buy in 2012 that simply won't be there in 2013.

Having said that, banks are apparently going to push lending in the hope that a less stagnant property market might give those in BTL and whopper mortgages some sense that it's worth hanging on....or so I read somewhere.
 

bob3367

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This is correct. Labour mobility, for instance, is affected by an inefficient housing market.

Of course, the definition of inefficient is up for debate. Inefficiency could be the result of too high asking prices (solution: realistic seller expectations) or bank lending policies.
Very true, I recently heard a story about someone been offered a job down the country, a good job, relocation package and other bells and whistles, she really wanted the job, it was her ambition etc....

She turned it down, due to the fact that she has property in Dublin, and there is no market for her apartment.

I suggested she rent it, "No fcking way" was the reply, she explained that she didnt want the hassle, and she quiet rightly said there was nobody that she would trust to keep an eye on it, professionally.

She is not a happy bunny.
 

meriwether

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Very true, I recently heard a story about someone been offered a job down the country, a good job, relocation package and other bells and whistles, she really wanted the job, it was her ambition etc....

She turned it down, due to the fact that she has property in Dublin, and there is no market for her apartment.

I suggested she rent it, "No fcking way" was the reply, she explained that she didnt want the hassle, and she quiet rightly said there was nobody that she would trust to keep an eye on it, professionally.

She is not a happy bunny.
Renting is a complete nuisance. I can't see the attraction of it, unless you are retired and have nothing better to do.
 

bob3367

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Jan 11, 2007
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8,083
Houses in Cork in the better areas parts of Douglas, Blackrock, Ballinlough are selling quite quickly and at the asking price from what I have heard. However, the Q1 figures will be more interesting as the MIR deadline will have created an imperative to buy in 2012 that simply won't be there in 2013.

Having said that, banks are apparently going to push lending in the hope that a less stagnant property market might give those in BTL and whopper mortgages some sense that it's worth hanging on....or so I read somewhere.
They always did though, I mean if we ever decide to go home, it will that area that we will be buying.
 

Rebel_Yell

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They always did though, I mean if we ever decide to go home, it will that area that we will be buying.
Yup, C4 as they say.

However, I live in that area and there is a very noticeable uptick in sold signs and I know from people who are buying that the prices are holding up much more than they were. 40-50% from peak but stabilized. However, I think changes to MIR will cause another dip.
 

friendlyfire

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Apparently Abbey are starting a new build in Shankill.
We haven't even got started to demolish the majority of the ghost estate's and with vacant houses everywhere.Sometimes you despair and if stupidity got us into mess ........then we really are a thick bunch who have learned nothing.
 

Johnnybaii

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Oct 6, 2010
Messages
1,752
Houses in Cork in the better areas parts of Douglas, Blackrock, Ballinlough are selling quite quickly and at the asking price from what I have heard. However, the Q1 figures will be more interesting as the MIR deadline will have created an imperative to buy in 2012 that simply won't be there in 2013.

Having said that, banks are apparently going to push lending in the hope that a less stagnant property market might give those in BTL and whopper mortgages some sense that it's worth hanging on....or so I read somewhere.
From memory You and I are looking in similar areas, I am surprised to see houses I am interested in selling for, or close to, asking in those areas. Still enough people with money around for now anyway it seems.
 

meriwether

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We haven't even got started to demolish the majority of the ghost estate's and with vacant houses everywhere.Sometimes you despair and if stupidity got us into mess ........then we really are a thick bunch who have learned nothing.
Ghost estates are ghost estates because people don't want to live there.

People want to live elsewhere. Therefore there may be demand for housebuilding in other areas.

Unless you think that people who work in Dublin should be relocated to leitrim to live in a ghost estate.
 

Rebel_Yell

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From memory You and I are looking in similar areas, I am surprised to see houses I am interested in selling for, or close to, asking in those areas. Still enough people with money around for now anyway it seems.
Think so. Maybe an irony in that we may push up the price of a house yet between us :)

Depends on the house, area etc. A couple of houses in Ballinlough went Sale Agreed at the asking apparently. Bear in mind there was a bit of "panic buying" (Very loosely using the term, it's not 2006), in Oct/Nov as folk wanted to meet the MIR deadline. As I say, Q1 will tell a lot. I still think there is room for a further drop. 3 bed semis in this area are going at the 250-320 mark. I think realistically, the appropriate range is 200-250.
 

bob3367

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8,083
Think so. Maybe an irony in that we may push up the price of a house yet between us :)

Depends on the house, area etc. A couple of houses in Ballinlough went Sale Agreed at the asking apparently. Bear in mind there was a bit of "panic buying" (Very loosely using the term, it's not 2006), in Oct/Nov as folk wanted to meet the MIR deadline. As I say, Q1 will tell a lot. I still think there is room for a further drop. 3 bed semis in this area are going at the 250-320 mark. I think realistically, the appropriate range is 200-250.
Jesus 250-320, my brother in law has a bungalow in Frankfield, it was rented for a long time and we got it valued @175, it was wrecked.

I spent the last 4 weeks down there getting it cleaned up, and wheelchair accessible, a guy pulls up and asks if it was going on the market?

I asked why?, he said I have a waiting list for property in this area, old people downgrading, he reckons it would fetch €220k, somehow I doubt it.

Oh if any of ye need a reliable man for concrete or other maintenance I have a number, PM me anytime.
 

davoid

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Joined
Feb 16, 2011
Messages
9,711
Latest Daft.ie Quarterly Report is out and makes for interesting if unsurprising reading.
 
2013: After six years, time to build again?
 
One potential headline grabber is prices in South County Dublin appear to be stabilizing (the only area that did not have a YOY fall in asking prices) which tallies with what I’m hearing anecdotally on the ground, whether this is a result of a last hurrah thanks to the ending of MIR is a good question. I personally think that the increasing inequality in our society is going to underline and reinforce class divides even more firmly in the future, i.e. people with money will be jostling for houses in the areas they deem as safe, good services, good schools etc
 
On the other hand there are always peaks in troughs on the way up and on the way down in any bubble/crash so maybe this is just the dead cat playing out in SCD?
 
Of more interest to me personally are the drops in Cork, circa 8% YOY drops in asking prices in Cork City (over 13% in the County area), even allowing for the removal of MIR I will on average be €10k better off renting in 2013 versus 2012 assuming same/similar rent and mortgage payments. There is a definite tightening of supply occurring at the moment in what are considered ‘good areas’ but what effect the supposed changes to repossessions has in March is anyone’s guess, will there be more supply? How quickly etc.
 
Interesting year ahead, I think both I and my mortgage application form will sit on the fence until late Q2 at the earliest.

Edit: I should probably add that I am not for a moment suggesting a halt to price drops or that there will be a V shaped 'recovery' in prices etc. not with the arrears problems, emigration, further austerity budgets etc. I'm just thinking out loud re the year ahead more than anything.
I think the movemnet in SCD is real. And driven as you say by very good transport etc, as well as many young upwardly mobile professionals (now theres a blast from the past!!) looking to get back near home, and quite a lot of oldies looking to downsize.

Hard to buy a two bed house (not apartment) within 4 or 5 miles of Dundrum.
 

Johnnybaii

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Messages
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Think so. Maybe an irony in that we may push up the price of a house yet between us :)

Depends on the house, area etc. A couple of houses in Ballinlough went Sale Agreed at the asking apparently. Bear in mind there was a bit of "panic buying" (Very loosely using the term, it's not 2006), in Oct/Nov as folk wanted to meet the MIR deadline. As I say, Q1 will tell a lot. I still think there is room for a further drop. 3 bed semis in this area are going at the 250-320 mark. I think realistically, the appropriate range is 200-250.
Maybe so ;)

We have only seriously looked at Rochestown so far, as in enquired about bidding. Nice 4 bed detached in Clarkeswood. They wouldn't entertain below 360k and I couldn't value them over 300k so we left it be.

I'd rather Ballinlough but they are few and far between.

Going to be an interesting Q1 alright!
 
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