David McWilliams - Demographics leading to United Ireland

PO'Neill

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Post moved from Media to Foreign Affairs by mods but anyway - Great article by David McWilliams on the inevitably of a United Ireland and how Brexit could bring it about quicker. He rightly states that their is no point in partitionists (his wife is from the north) pretending it's not going to happen and that "It is unfashionable to say it, but the Union has been an economic disaster for both tribes in Northern Ireland." which is more the reason that partition should be brought to an end rather in Gombeen politics always seeking to prop up gross waste regardless. Stating also that "Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now ten times greater than that of Northern Ireland. Exports from the Republic are €89bn (£77.85bn) while from Northern Ireland, exports are a paltry €6bn (£5.25bn)."

He also points out an important consequence for the "the DUP’s approach to propping up May’s government which has nothing to do with making Northern Ireland self-sufficient. This will make Northern Ireland’s economy more, not less, fragile." As for demographics in a UI, unionism will be far from been in a position to threaten outright civil war and bloodshed such has never been seen malarky we heard for decades from Paisley, Robinson and a few on P.ie :lol: "The unionist population in a United Ireland will be no more than 14%, that’s considerably smaller than our immigrant population at the moment." Amazing.

Overall an excellent article, doubtless the trolls, wannabe comedians and genuine crackpots (I have most of you on Ignore by this stage anyway :) ) will try to deny the inevitable changes heading our way with deflection and whataboutry, but as McW puts it "as the pipe band belts out its tunes, wouldn’t it be nice for once, to think about the future not the past.".

Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland - we must have a plan - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk
 
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PO'Neill

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One thing I'd disagree with he compares the south’s budget deficit of 1% of GDP but " if Northern Ireland had to pay for itself in the morning, the budget deficit would be about 22% of GDP" which is a bit misleading as he's not talking about the north as a percentage of a 32 county economy. And the British government will not disclose how much revenue it takes out of the north despite many requests from Sinn Fein and there are significant gaps – for example, the amount raised by the British from corporation tax from stores and businesses which operate in the north, but which have their headquarters in England, or the amount of VAT generated through purchases in these stores. So, the actual gap between what is raised and what is spent will be significantly less.
 

PO'Neill

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Can I give you a post dated cheque?..............say 2116.
' Sigh ' :roll: SF said a UI was possible by 2116, never said it was a certainty. Simples :)
 

Sync

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One thing I'd disagree with he compares the south’s budget deficit of 1% of GDP but " if Northern Ireland had to pay for itself in the morning, the budget deficit would be about 22% of GDP" which is a bit misleading as he's not talking about the north as a percentage of a 32 county economy. And the British government will not disclose how much revenue it takes out of the north despite many requests from Sinn Fein and there are significant gaps – for example, the amount raised by the British from corporation tax from stores and businesses which operate in the north, but which have their headquarters in England, or the amount of VAT generated through purchases in these stores. So, the actual gap between what is raised and what is spent will be significantly less.
Yeah. It would still be a total millstone around the neck of the 26 counties, but not to 22% of GDP. In addition to the additions they'd gain (Access to the single market being the obvious one), they could also rely on a tonne of prop up money from the EU. Germany put aside the economic woes of the East to join together, they'd understand and support an Irish decision to do the same.
 
T

Toowoomba

Yeah. It would still be a total millstone around the neck of the 26 counties, but not to 22% of GDP. In addition to the additions they'd gain (Access to the single market being the obvious one), they could also rely on a tonne of prop up money from the EU. Germany put aside the economic woes of the East to join together, they'd understand and support an Irish decision to do the same.

Germans are STILL paying a 5.5% reunification tax.

Sell that one to the no water charges mob. :D
 

mr_anderson

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We need to introduce a new tax to pay for it.
I suggest 50% on the first €10,000 earned.
And to include total social welfare payments (dole & rent allowances) in this tax net.
 

Felixness

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Yep, most of us in the republic couldn't give a rats arse about Northern Ireland and we can't afford to carry Northern Ireland. The passport office has been overrun with tens of thousands of applications for Irish passports since the Brexit vote. There will never be a united Ireland, get used to it.
 

JimmyFoley

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Fúcking Orange bands practising, Israel and Palestine flags on roundabouts, and a (relative) 22% deficit... great job of selling a UI there, David.
 

PO'Neill

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Yep, most of us in the republic couldn't give a rats arse about Northern Ireland and we can't afford to carry Northern Ireland. The passport office has been overrun with tens of thousands of applications for Irish passports since the Brexit vote. There will never be a united Ireland, get used to it.
The inevitable :) As stated "the reason that partition should be brought to an end rather in Gombeen politics always seeking to prop up gross waste regardless." As for 'most of us' in the 26 not been interested in a UI - yeah sure bollox, BRING IT ON :)



 

PO'Neill

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Hunter-Gatherer

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maybe some of us catholics/athiests in the south do not want the DUP and their kind in the Dail.

lets go for 30+2 counties ( republic and british respectively ) . Even if the UK falls apart, such a solution must be workable.

anyway, there are probably more people born on the british mainland living in the southern 26 counties than the North these days. United Ireland ? nein danke
 

ruserious

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Yeah. It would still be a total millstone around the neck of the 26 counties, but not to 22% of GDP. In addition to the additions they'd gain (Access to the single market being the obvious one), they could also rely on a tonne of prop up money from the EU. Germany put aside the economic woes of the East to join together, they'd understand and support an Irish decision to do the same.
Sure wasn't it one Charles J. Haughey who single handedly United Germany. They owe us...
 

razorblade

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maybe some of us catholics/athiests in the south do not want the DUP and their kind in the Dail.

lets go for 30+2 counties ( republic and british respectively ) . Even if the UK falls apart, such a solution must be workable.
You do realise of course that in the event of a united Ireland there will be no DUP left to sit in the Dail.
 

Glenshane4

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Mr McWilliams might be good on economics but he seems unable to understand tribalism.

1. There is no guarantee that Catholics will ever be in the majority in Northern Ireland - although that does seem likely.

2. Even if Catholics become a majority in Northern Ireland, that will not automatically mean a United Ireland. Even already, many Catholics in Northern Ireland have lost interest in unity with Eire.

3. As Catholics become more powerful within Northern Ireland, they will be treated better within Northern Ireland and that will reduce their alienation from the UK.

4. Society in Eire seems to becoming increasingly anti-Catholic. The only society in Europe in which many people question the right of Catholic schools to promote Catholicism and to employ only practising Catholics.

5. Eire is being overrun with foreigners - a dreadful place totally alien to the Catholic areas of Northern Ireland.

6. If it seems Catholics are about to become a majority in Northern Ireland, the Prods will carve out for themselves a smaller enclave in Ireland and maintain Prod rule within that enclave consisting of County Antrim, Northern Down and Northern Armagh. The city of Belfast will present a problem but that might be circumvented by linking that part of Belfast, which lies north of the river Lagan, to the mainly Catholic regions which lie west of the river Bann - a West Berlin type of solution.

There is no need for anyone currently alive to start planning for a United Ireland.
 

PO'Neill

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Big boost for FG though.
I always reckon that the DUP (and UUP) will have no problem bedding down with FG and FF, you just have to look at the RHI scandal, Project Eagle, Red Sky etc. Sure behind all the bluster, they play golf, attend Rugby matches together etc Meanwhile the Shinners will stick to ceili dancing and the GAA etc :lol:
 

silverharp

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wait til your ordinary Nordie even catholic ones see the price of car insurance & Tax , even the Taighes will be saying No!
 


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