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Demographic Tendancies point to UI


ArtyQueing

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 2, 2008
Messages
302
I have been playing around with the figures from the census and came up with the following.
The figures are Town, Population,Catholic percentage, percentage of pop less than 16, percentage of pop greater than 60

First the top 20 Taig Towns by percentage


Crossmaglen 1459 98.97 27.01 14.8
Camlough 911 98.79 27.55 12.63
Derrymacash 628 98.25 28.02 9.71
Carrickmore 611 98.04 28.32 14.89
Waterfoot 505 98.01 26.15 12.86
Glebe (Strabane LGD) 671 97.92 30.1 10.44
Lettershendoney 504 97.83 28.96 8.93
Clady (Magherafelt LGD) 595 97.65 28.57 13.27
Mayobridge 841 97.5 25.93 11.31
Rosslea 553 97.48 24.95 16.81
Dunloy 1070 97.1 31.4 11.13
Cushendall 1241 96.93 26.12 16.84
Hilltown 900 96.89 27 14.45
Dungiven 2993 96.79 29.34 11.66
Draperstown 1638 96.7 24.35 15.01
Aghagallon 823 96.6 32.32 11.66
Greysteel 1226 96.58 25.37 11.74
Toome 724 96.26 27.21 10.9
Coalisland 4917 95.81 29.57 12.39
Feeny 542 95.75 29.34 6.65


Now the top 20 proddy towns

Portballintrae 734 0.95 11.98 33.39
Ballywalter 1416 0.99 18.50 26.98
Cullybackey 2405 1.21 19.45 22.29
Kells/Connor 1745 1.32 24.97 14.73
Cogry/Kilbride 1199 1.51 26.27 7.25
Doagh 1130 1.68 19.73 18.93
Carrowdore 816 2.09 24.28 15.32
Bushmills 1319 2.20 19.87 22.15
Macosquin 597 2.35 21.79 16.75
Portavogie 1594 2.44 20.38 18.38
Ballycarry 980 2.85 23.06 15.10
Millisle 1800 2.94 19.00 25.50
Ballynure 677 2.95 22.30 15.81
Tobermore 579 3.11 19.86 20.55
Rich Hill 2818 3.37 26.77 13.05
Ballinamallard 1340 3.44 24.84 14.93
Ballystrudder 781 3.58 26.37 14.48
Comber 8933 3.69 19.75 18.04
Glynn 641 3.74 23.71 19.82
Parkgate 648 4.01 26.70 14.81

The implications are clear. There are generally less children in prody towns than taig towns and generally more wrinklies.

So it appears that a double squeeze is being applied. The prods are not reproducing in the same numbers as taigs and they are dying out faster. (The latter is a point not often mentioned).

Even now if the catholic birth rate per couple falls to match the protestants the fact that there are more catholics of child bearing age means that the demographoc clock is ticking in taig favour.

Time now for prods to do a deal?
 
Last edited:


jfk2008

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Sep 10, 2008
Messages
157
Not all Catholics in Northern Ireland would be in favour of a united Ireland, for "reasons" that I'm sure Roger2 will be along to explain soon.
 

Guinnesslad

Member
Joined
Sep 23, 2007
Messages
25
Jayz bah! There has been alot of talk about a United Ireland lately on these boards!
Everyone knows that eventually Catholics will outnumber Protestants in the North, nothing really that new.
 

factual

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Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
Demographic predictions are difficult and hard to forecast from births because of the rising tendancy of migration.
 

Trefor1.1

Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2008
Messages
76
I have been playing around with the figures from the census and came up with the following.
The figures are Town, Population,Catholic percentage, percentage of pop less than 16, percentage of pop greater than 60

First the top 20 Taig Towns by percentage


Crossmaglen 1459 98.97 27.01 14.8
Camlough 911 98.79 27.55 12.63
Derrymacash 628 98.25 28.02 9.71
Carrickmore 611 98.04 28.32 14.89
Waterfoot 505 98.01 26.15 12.86
Glebe (Strabane LGD) 671 97.92 30.1 10.44
Lettershendoney 504 97.83 28.96 8.93
Clady (Magherafelt LGD) 595 97.65 28.57 13.27
Mayobridge 841 97.5 25.93 11.31
Rosslea 553 97.48 24.95 16.81
Dunloy 1070 97.1 31.4 11.13
Cushendall 1241 96.93 26.12 16.84
Hilltown 900 96.89 27 14.45
Dungiven 2993 96.79 29.34 11.66
Draperstown 1638 96.7 24.35 15.01
Aghagallon 823 96.6 32.32 11.66
Greysteel 1226 96.58 25.37 11.74
Toome 724 96.26 27.21 10.9
Coalisland 4917 95.81 29.57 12.39
Feeny 542 95.75 29.34 6.65


Now the top 20 proddy towns

Portballintrae 734 0.95 11.98 33.39
Ballywalter 1416 0.99 18.50 26.98
Cullybackey 2405 1.21 19.45 22.29
Kells/Connor 1745 1.32 24.97 14.73
Cogry/Kilbride 1199 1.51 26.27 7.25
Doagh 1130 1.68 19.73 18.93
Carrowdore 816 2.09 24.28 15.32
Bushmills 1319 2.20 19.87 22.15
Macosquin 597 2.35 21.79 16.75
Portavogie 1594 2.44 20.38 18.38
Ballycarry 980 2.85 23.06 15.10
Millisle 1800 2.94 19.00 25.50
Ballynure 677 2.95 22.30 15.81
Tobermore 579 3.11 19.86 20.55
Rich Hill 2818 3.37 26.77 13.05
Ballinamallard 1340 3.44 24.84 14.93
Ballystrudder 781 3.58 26.37 14.48
Comber 8933 3.69 19.75 18.04
Glynn 641 3.74 23.71 19.82
Parkgate 648 4.01 26.70 14.81

The implications are clear. There are generally less children in prody towns than taig towns and generally more wrinklies.

So it appears that a double squeeze is being applied. The prods are not reproducing in the same numbers as taigs and they are dying out faster. (The latter is a point not often mentioned).

Even now if the catholic birth rate per couple falls to match the protestants the fact that there are more catholics of child bearing age means that the demographoc clock is ticking in taig favour.

Time now for prods to do a deal?
Birth rates are generally higher in majority Catholic council areas.
 

Catalpa

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Jun 10, 2004
Messages
10,301
Good news if it pans out that way but ol Catalpa has been hearing this one well nigh on 35 years now and it still hasn't happened...

But what might happen is that the pressure for more and more links to the South grows and we will see a less divided Ireland rather than a re United one.

I love this song:

[ame="http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=OB3PKNqFeO0"]YouTube - REUNITED - PEACHES & HERB[/ame]
 

Trefor1.1

Member
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Oct 25, 2008
Messages
76
Good news if it pans out that way but ol Catalpa has been hearing this one well nigh on 35 years now and it still hasn't happened...

But what might happen is that the pressure for more and more links to the South grows and we will see a less divided Ireland rather than a re United one.

I love this song:

YouTube - REUNITED - PEACHES & HERB
Why dosn't Catalpa have a look at the figures for himself then?
 

ArtyQueing

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Jun 2, 2008
Messages
302
Not all Catholics in Northern Ireland would be in favour of a united Ireland, for "reasons" that I'm sure Roger2 will be along to explain soon.
So people keep saying - but election after election the figures of support for nationalist numbers is a remarkable match of the Catholic population percentagewise.

So it is fair to say that if some catholics are voting for Unionists some protestants are voting for nationalists in numbers which cancel each other out.
 

ArtyQueing

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Amach na Casca

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May 29, 2007
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Interesting stats there AQ. Unionism is going to be in serious trouble within a generation unless they can attract a lot of Catholics (which i doubt they can). Only a matter of time before nationalism is the dominant philosopy in the 06 it would appear. When that day comes, unification won't be far behind!
 

ArtyQueing

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Demographic predictions are difficult and hard to forecast from births because of the rising tendancy of migration.
In what way - in or out. A lot of migrants are leaving - and no doubt you are aware of the tendency for young prods to get their 3rd level education in Britain and stay there after graduating, the resulatnt brain drain on the Prod side is causing them some alarm as well as putting yet more demographic pressure on them.
 

Trefor1.1

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Messages
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So it is fair to say that if some catholics are voting for Unionists some protestants are voting for nationalists in numbers which cancel each other out.
There is no evidence at all that this is happening - the evidence points in the opposite direction.
 

factual

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In what way - in or out. A lot of migrants are leaving - and no doubt you are aware of the tendency for young prods to get their 3rd level education in Britain and stay there after graduating, the resulatnt brain drain on the Prod side is causing them some alarm as well as putting yet more demographic pressure on them.
Not clear. Catholic youngsters are going to GB too. There is still a tendency for people to leave from areas of unemployment in the west of the province. There are people coming to the six counties from all over the world and a lot from Britain. More people in-migrate to the six counties from GB than out-migrate to GB each year.
 

ArtyQueing

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There is no evidence at all that this is happening - the evidence points in the opposite direction.
Do not quite understand what you are saying - what do you mean?
 

merle haggard

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Nov 18, 2005
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5,497
Yes - but it is just a holding the fort exercise - to mix metaphors the dams are ready to break
hardly . were that the case wed be looking at yet another agreement and a despondent unionism as opposed to the most confident and jubilant unionism ive ever seen in my 30 plus years of existence . Alongside the most demoralised republican base ive ever witnessed in that same period .
we wouldnt have the British governemnt wasting public funds diverting 15% of its overall military intlligence resources to the north of ireland and a permanent intelligence base . Unionism is extremely confident about any border poll . They are well aware that people can vote for a political party for communal and sectarian reasons or because they prefer one politician over the other and not be a supporter of a united Ireland . They know too that a sizable proportion of northern catholics would oppose a united Ireland , and that the Irish governemnt doesnt want one and never did . And they know Britian has no intention of going anywhere .

theres no dam going to break at all therefore green papers remain red herrings .
 

iggy

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Feb 3, 2008
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Northern nationalists will certainly not want to be consumed into what may well be a southern economic and political basket case. This will be an agreed Ireland to which all sections can give allegiance, including offcourse Ulster prods. I think the southern partitionist/west brit/revisionists will before long envy the Norths stability and infrastructure, including the NHS.
 

Trefor1.1

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Oct 25, 2008
Messages
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Do not quite understand what you are saying - what do you mean?
In wards where there are few if any Catholics there are virtually no votes for Nationalist parties.

In wards where there are few if any Protestants there are virtually no votes for Unionist parties.

If there was the crossover you hint at, you wouldn't have this pattern.
 

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