Deutsche Bank,China, Italian banks ... can they be safely unwound ?

cyberianpan

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We never really properly recovered from the crisis associated with the collapse of Lehmans

Deutsche is insolvent ... ditto many Italian banks. Furthermore China has made little inroads on their bubbles (stock market and credit)

There has been a lot of kicking the can down the road ...but I think the day of reckoning is looming

Italian referendum rejection would trigger it...as might other events

Do we have a global resolution framework ?

cyp
 


VHF

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Blackout on DB for past month:roll:
 

silverharp

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Yes...curious. Although there seems to be a collective holding of breath over Italian referendum. It can't be a coincidence, given DBs exposure to that country.
what do you mean by a blackout?
 

gleeful

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China can just print its way out of any problem. Ultimately so can the ECB - but theres slightly more politics in the mix.
 

mulligan

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[video=youtube;AJp6GygI92Y]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJp6GygI92Y[/video]
 

gerhard dengler

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DB went on to the media back burner because share prices have been roaring ahead after the American elections.

DB's share price was down at around €10 in mid-Oct which meant that DB's capitalisation market value was too low relative to the size of it's balance sheet.

Along with practically every other listed share valuation, DB's share price recovered to the heady heights €15.00 since.
So for the moment DB is safer.

For the moment.

It is reported that DB is heavily entangled in the Italian banking mess
 

soubresauts

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[video=youtube;AJp6GygI92Y]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJp6GygI92Y[/video]
Alex losing it? Or just taking a sabbatical?

Rather impressive anyway.

I didn't realize he was into that fundamentalist(?) Christianity stuff, though I did see him in the tradition of those great Southern preacher showmen like Jimmy Swaggart, not to mention Al Green (heavenly voice, in contrast to Alex's rasp).

It would be nice to think that Donald is paying some attention to Alex...
 
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VHF

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Not sure whether that is directed at me or VHF. I took his comment to mean general lack of any noteworthy news for the past couple of weeks; given that going belly up seemed imminent a month ago.
Affirm
 

McTell

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No
China can just print its way out of any problem. Ultimately so can the ECB - but theres slightly more politics in the mix.

Dunno bout that...

https://www.ft.com/content/8ad2ed98-d0a0-11e5-986a-62c79fcbcead


What are the rules?
Known in EU jargon as the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, the legislation is the centrepiece of efforts to avoid a repeat of the €1.6tn of taxpayer support to banks during the 2008 financial crisis.
It empowers regulators to intervene quickly when a bank is weak, avoiding the panic that could arise from a messy and prolonged insolvency procedure. The law took effect in 2015, but markets were given an extra year to adjust to the most controversial measure: tougher rules imposing losses on a failing bank’s creditors, which kicked in on January 1.
This stipulates that 8 per cent of a bank’s liabilities must be wiped out before any taxpayer support can be provided, placing unsecured senior bondholders and also large corporate depositors on the hook for forced losses, also known as bail-ins.
 

McTell

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No
Sorry bout the above idea of shaving investors, as Italy-the-state may step in. Rules, shmules....


Italy seeks 20bn euros for banks as Monte dei Paschi flounders - BBC News

Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, whose government has only been in office for a week, is under pressure because private investors would suffer any losses under EU bailout rules.

He described the move as a "precautionary measure", adding: "We believe it is our duty to take this measure to protect savings. I hope all the political movements in parliament share this responsibility."



So the idea that shareholders should ask questions and fire boards, or lose their money, is out the window

They can afford the cost of 20 Bn, as their debt is 2.2 Trn

Italy General Government Debt | 1950-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar
 

silverharp

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drip drip can down the cul-de-sac at this stage. wait til interest rates start rising
 

RetiredProvo

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DB went on to the media back burner because share prices have been roaring ahead after the American elections.

DB's share price was down at around €10 in mid-Oct which meant that DB's capitalisation market value was too low relative to the size of it's balance sheet.

Along with practically every other listed share valuation, DB's share price recovered to the heady heights €15.00 since.
So for the moment DB is safer.

For the moment.

It is reported that DB is heavily entangled in the Italian banking mess
If this is true and DB are as exposed to Italian Banking system as you say they are, then this could be Europe's Lehman Bros - Result, Euro Meltdown 2017.
 

Voluntary

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Sorry bout the above idea of shaving investors, as Italy-the-state may step in. Rules, shmules....


Italy seeks 20bn euros for banks as Monte dei Paschi flounders - BBC News

Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, whose government has only been in office for a week, is under pressure because private investors would suffer any losses under EU bailout rules.

He described the move as a "precautionary measure", adding: "We believe it is our duty to take this measure to protect savings. I hope all the political movements in parliament share this responsibility."



So the idea that shareholders should ask questions and fire boards, or lose their money, is out the window

They can afford the cost of 20 Bn, as their debt is 2.2 Trn

Italy General Government Debt | 1950-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar
Goldman Sachs estimates they need €38bn rather than €20bn stated.
 

McTell

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No
Probably the bank (MPS) and their central bank agreed to wait until a politician felt the heat and would say yes.

So this was a "known known" as it played out. Problem is off the shoulders of investors and on the shoulders of all Italian taxpayers.
 


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