Discussion / Debate point - Are we still inside the 08 crash Matrix

SPN

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Coveney on with Brian Dobson this morning essentially saying , that if the UK doesn't agree to break up the UK by having Northern Ireland in a different customs union , then there can be no trade deal

Dobson didnt ask what were to me 3 obvious questions.
Do you really think thats likely ?
What about the GFA ?
And if that happens , the EU will be delighted but its our economy Simon thats screwed ?

But no apparently all our eggs are in the "Break up of the UK" Basket ....madness

You are missing the key point in all of this: - The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU. Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.
 


brughahaha

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You are missing the key point in all of this: - The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU. Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.
Do enlighten me by having a go at the 3 questions i posed :roll:
 

Analyzer

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It's frightening to see all the idiots thinking Leo is doing a great job on Brexit.
Even the Shinners think it.
You are being too generous there.

Most of the time the Shinners are reacting, obeying and squirming. They don't "do" independent thought.

The do "follow the leader" (who follows the Army council).
 

Analyzer

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Coveney on with Brian Dobson this morning essentially saying , that if the UK doesn't agree to break up the UK by having Northern Ireland in a different customs union , then there can be no trade deal

Dobson didnt ask what were to me 3 obvious questions.
Do you really think thats likely ?
What about the GFA ?
And if that happens , the EU will be delighted but its our economy Simon thats screwed ?

But no apparently all our eggs are in the "Break up of the UK" Basket ....madness
Possible explanation.

SC represents Brussels, in trying to force the British people to obey Brussels.
 

Watcher2

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I actually heard it will be toward end of THIS YEAR?

Whatever about our national debt repayments going up, dont forget it also rises TRACKER RATES. Many people on the current low tracker rates are only just about servicing them, so expect many more possible defaults, distressed mortgages as ECB & therefore tracker mortgage rates rise?
Indeed yes. Personal debt levels are high.

But one thing I never mentioned in the post to which you replied, the graph is Debt to GDP levels. GDP is thoroughly disgraced. Look at the 2015 bar, that's when our GDP increased by over 25%. Flippin laughable.
 

PBP voter

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I think you've collectively summed up the FF/FG/LAB response to the potential ramifications of their "remedy" work.
The best way forward for Ireland is too get the debt down as quickly as possible.

None of the main parties ie FF FG SF Lab in the Dail want to do this.

They all want to grow the economy and hope it keeps growing forever.
 

brughahaha

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The best way forward for Ireland is too get the debt down as quickly as possible.

None of the main parties ie FF FG SF Lab in the Dail want to do this.

They all want to grow the economy and hope it keeps growing forever.
It also requires efficient competent public services at a reasonable cost ........ but that seems beyond PS managers and Politicians despite the massive pay and pensions
 

SPN

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It also requires efficient competent public services at a reasonable cost ........ but that seems beyond PS managers and Politicians despite the massive pay and pensions
Don't forget the Unions.

They have a big part to play in this too.

€600 million in (recurring) payrises going to the insiders this year, with no requirement to up their game.

And the pensioners get an increase in their pensions on the back of it.


We can't fix the problems in the PS/CS until the Unions are prepared to make it happen, and they have no interest in doing so.
 

SPN

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Fractional Reserve

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And there is talk of interest rates rising next year in Europe. The US has already increased rates twice in the recent past. The day of low interest rates are very much at an end. Wait till they got up to normal levels. Our repayments will skyrocket because of the massive pile upon which the interest rates are charged.

I used bang on about it and got the usual poo pooing from the shills. There was/is nothing to see apparently.
watch gov bonds and banks they are linked , if the bonds go tits up in Europe major banking crisis , bail in legislation already in place , mind your money .
 

The Old Woman

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Coveney on with Brian Dobson this morning essentially saying , that if the UK doesn't agree to break up the UK by having Northern Ireland in a different customs union , then there can be no trade deal

Dobson didnt ask what were to me 3 obvious questions.
Do you really think thats likely ?
What about the GFA ?
And if that happens , the EU will be delighted but its our economy Simon thats screwed ?

But no apparently all our eggs are in the "Break up of the UK" Basket ....madness
What is the actual trading figures in T/O figures in Ireland on UK companies ?

What impact has his department estimated that this will impact directly and indirectly on UK future trading here

on Corporation tax take ?

Cash flow effect domestically and on UK business here in the supply of their sister out-lets.....


Can you actually off set costs on business here once your not part of the EU? etc, etc. etc, etc...



As this will effectively impact the use of the vat directive which has brought untold benefits .... what are the consequences short and long term to Ireland and for goodness sake please have someone ask official Ireland questions on this directive who actually understands how the directive works ......
 

robut

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watch gov bonds and banks they are linked , if the bonds go tits up in Europe major banking crisis , bail in legislation already in place , mind your money .
A bail in of sorts happened back when Noonan introduced the private pension levy by taking cash directly from the private pension pots them selves .. essentially pretty much the same as taking cash directly from your deposit account.

AND:

Bank of England keeps UK interest rates steady

The Bank of England kept rates on hold today but its chief economist unexpectedly joined the minority of policymakers calling for a rate rise now.

The move is likely to bolster market expectations of an imminent hike.
Lots being mentioned tonight at the Mansion House tonight by Mark Carney et al
 

brughahaha

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That was the answer to the three questions you asked.
Errr no it wasn't ..not even close

I'll print them again so you can have another go

Do you really think thats the UK is likely to agree to break up the Kingdom?
What about the GFA ?
And if that happens , the EU will be delighted but its our economy Simon thats screwed .....What Then? ?
 

HarshBuzz

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The effects of the crash were considerably eased by massive government borrowing.
This went so high that the EU dictated that we now include hookers & coke in calculating (i.e. boosting) our GDP.



https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/sex-and-drugs-help-add-euro12bn-to-gdp-274271.html

This was the kind of 'massaging of figures' tactic that would have been the punchline of jokes only a few years previous.


Always be very, very sceptical of government statistical reporting when they result in graphs such as this ...




https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-debt-to-gdp

The debt hasn't gone away, you know.
That's why GNI* is a far superior measure for Ireland. Would you agree?
 

SPN

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Errr no it wasn't ..not even close

I'll print them again so you can have another go

Do you really think thats the UK is likely to agree to break up the Kingdom?
What about the GFA ?
And if that happens , the EU will be delighted but its our economy Simon thats screwed .....What Then? ?
Let me say it again;

You are missing the key point in all of this: - The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU. Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.

There are three parts to that:

1) You are missing the key point in all of this

2) The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU.

3) Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.
 

Speedfreak

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Things were a lot more "bubblicious" in 2007. It might have gone a lot further were it not specifically for the CDO squared type instruments that brought obscurity to the location of risk. Since then, a lot has been fixed and "improved" in the system. A huge amount of work. The current run up has years and years left to run IMHO. We will get much larger even than 2007. The banks haven't even really got back to lending. Thèy will for sure, before not too long. Even then it will take many more years. Btw there will be considerable inflation involved within that time.
 

HarshBuzz

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Things were a lot more "bubblicious" in 2007. It might have gone a lot further were it not specifically for the CDO squared type instruments that brought obscurity to the location of risk. Since then, a lot has been fixed and "improved" in the system. A huge amount of work. The current run up has years and years left to run IMHO. We will get much larger even than 2007.
What measures\indexes\things, specifically, 'will get much larger'?
 

Speedfreak

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What measures\indexes\things, specifically, 'will get much larger'?
The usual things. Money in the system. Asset values. Credit supply and corresponding consumer and commercial debt.
 

SPN

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The banks haven't even really got back to lending.
I think we have just passed that point. It will certainly happen in 2018.

But we've a long way to go from negative nett new lending to the dizzy heights of 2007 (+/-€70 Billion neet new lending).
 

shiel

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Let me say it again;

You are missing the key point in all of this: - The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU. Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.

There are three parts to that:

1) You are missing the key point in all of this

2) The UK needs a sweetheart deal from the EU.

3) Without a sweetheart deal there can be no Brexit.
They had a deal.

But they tore it up and declared economic war.

Now they are blaming everyone else.
 


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