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Dissecting the 2007 Fianna Fail Voter

Iarmhi Gael

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May 2, 2007
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3,840
Was looking to do some analysis on the FF voter at the last general Election and see where they would be now... Just a general look at the grouping within FF last time out and an honest reflection of whether they would vote FF next time.

Broken a few down already and I will add to them as they are posted.

Core FF voter - Traditional FF voter, family have always been FF, 1-2-3 down the Ballot paper, Still with FF
Republican Party Voter - Votes FF as the Republican Party, understands history of the state and views their vote with FF as their effort to the cause. This voter may swing to SF
Celtic Tiger Voter Have had a FF government during their entire voting life and saw voting against FF as a vote against all the CT offered. Most definitely away from FF and may not vote next time.
Leaders Debate Voter The Undecided voter running into the last election. Thought about voting against FF but swung away from the opposition parties (mainly FG) after viewing a poor performance by Enda Kenny on the Leaders Debate. Most Likely still undecided but more likely not to vote FF next time
Bertie Voter Voters who liked Bertie, Felt close to him and were unsure & unaware of the other party leaders. Cann't see these Voters staying with Brian Cowen. May have seen more in Common with Pat Rabitte then an Eamon Gilmore imo also.
The Person Voter Voted for a Person rather then the Party. No Allegiance to FF but gave it No1 because of the Canidate in their constituency - No Idea where these voters would sit, but would see at least 1 in 3 being unhappy.
public servant voter no real party affinity but delighted with the pay rises and benefits they received by way of Benchmarking. May presently be worried for their jobs, but I would say are undecided when it comes to voting next. If anything could see thes evoters go to Labour
geography voter Voted for FF because they thought the FF Canidate locally had a better chance of being elected. Can see this voter not giving the 2nd 3rd preference vote to FF in this instance
 
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revereie

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Jan 7, 2004
Messages
345
I believe there was a vote for Bertie (I'm not going to argue the rights/wrongs of this but i believe it existed); the immediacy of Bertie to the public or the public's familiarity with Bertie, however wrongly portrayed/lampooned in the media ensured that everyone knew Bertie at almost a personal level, unlike leaders of the opposition.
 

Amach na Casca

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May 29, 2007
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444
It would be interesting to see what percentage of each voter type makes up FFs total votes. If roughly 25% of the entire electorate vote FF no matter what, and 41% voted FF last time out then the core voter is worth more to FF than the other 3 groups put together. In short FF will always be there or thereabouts when it comes to winning elections. If they do a bit of flag waving near elections that'll help pull in a few more votes no doubt.
 

kellsangel

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Joined
Oct 24, 2008
Messages
79
What about?

What about:?

Unemployed voter
Negative equity Voter
Parent voter facing higher education costs
Sick voter with longer waiting lists
Public Sector voter facing job cuts
Building worker voter
investor voter
Where is me Pension voter
motor sector employee voter
entrepreneur voter
Credit card debt voter
Job hunter voter
Mother of emigrant voter
Developer voter
 

kellsangel

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Joined
Oct 24, 2008
Messages
79
He / She are probably in some on or more of the screwed catogories

what about "the bertie told me fibs" voter ?



He / She are probably in some on or more of the screwed catogories and will already be included, in the previous list?
 
D

Duth Ealla

Iarmhi gael

interesting exercise. I think there is some overlap between the groups. Many (using your terminology) core FF voters would do so because they imagine FF as a republican party.

Similar kinda approach to American politics where you have Saints, Sinners and Salvageables.

From a non FF point of view:

Sinners would be the core FF vote who will vote FF if they say, had a corrupt leader or nearly bankrupted the state. Maybe about 25-26 % FF.

Saints are those who dont vote FF - about 60% from the last GE

Those 15% who voted FF in the election but seemed to vanish in the SBP poll are your salvageables.
 

Digout

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Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
1,389
He / She are probably in some on or more of the screwed catogories and will already be included, in the previous list?
Yes, more than likely on the dole, thats where they deserve to be anyway if the believed that thief.
 

Iarmhi Gael

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May 2, 2007
Messages
3,840
Iarmhi gael

interesting exercise. I think there is some overlap between the groups. Many (using your terminology) core FF voters would do so because they imagine FF as a republican party.

Similar kinda approach to American politics where you have Saints, Sinners and Salvageables.

From a non FF point of view:

Sinners would be the core FF vote who will vote FF if they say, had a corrupt leader or nearly bankrupted the state. Maybe about 25-26 % FF.

Saints are those who dont vote FF - about 60% from the last GE

Those 15% who voted FF in the election but seemed to vanish in the SBP poll are your salvageables.
I don't think so... A core voter of FF could also be someone who had a FF member in its family, had support from the likes of Dev, Lynch or Haughey...

Then you will have another Core Supporter who will just vote FF as they are republican. I see these Voters going to SF now. Hense why I broke them up. Anyway there is no right or wrong answer in this - Just looking to see the main groupings of FF last time out and see where they stand...

I know there was a business Voters - A Business Owner who voted FF, but I was looking someone more intellegent to comment on that one.
 

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,173
I don't think you can leave out the voter who didn't vote for Fianna Fail, but did vote for one of their candidates.

A lot of Willie O'Dea's vote falls into that category, but it is probably present to some extent in most constituencies.
 

junketman

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Joined
Mar 25, 2008
Messages
66
It's hard to know what would turn the core voter off FF, but it certainly isn't the record of FF in power.

I have a feeling if a FF militia broke into a core voters home, machined gunned everyone in the house apart from the core voter, burned down the house and stole their property, the core voter would still vote FF.

Having said that, FF are presently engaged in doing most of those things to core voters through their policies and still the core vote can be depended on.

A sympathy vote is also a strong factor in Irish politics and sticking it to the Dublin media. Witness Michael Lowry in Tipperary, the Blaneys in Donegal, Jackie Healy-Rae, Beverly Cooper Flynn. I suspect at the next election, there will be a significant sympathy vote for Fianna Fail TDs, sympathy for the fact the media and other people have given them a hard time and that shur FF are only trying to stick up for us against the English.

Voting FF is deeply ingrained in Irish life, its a bad habit but like a lot of bad habits it can be very hard to break. There needs to be an encouragement of an 'anyone but FF' mentality when people enter the poll booths and link FF to the problems they experience in their every day lives, because up to now many people don't seem to recognise that a bad government can affect us all adversely.
 
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Iarmhi Gael

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A sympathty vote is also a strong factor in Irish politics and sticking it to the Dublin media. Witness Michael Lowry in Tipperary, the Blaneys in Donegal, Jackie Healy-Rae, Beverly Cooper Flynn. I suspect at the next election, there will be a significant sympathy vote for Fianna Fail TDs, sympathy for the fact the media and other people have given them a hard time and that shur FF are only trying to stick up for us against the English.

Voting FF is deeply ingrained in Irish life, its a bad habit but like a lot of bad habits it can be very hard to break. There needs to be an encouragement of an anyone but FF mentality when people enter the poll booths and link FF to the problems they experience in their every day lives, because up to now many people don't seem to recognise that a bad government can affect us all adversely.
Was discussing this last night myself... Could very well Happen... One thing that FF is missing is the NI situation. In times past when we were in an economic downturn, FF could always turn to the North. Ain't there for them no more.

Spoke with someone yesterday from letterkenny - Good job in the Hospital there. A core FF voter. No idea why she votes for them. Knows her Parents voted for them. Knows all her 6 brothers and 3 sisters still vote FF. Would know her FF councillors and TD's and have some little story about them shaking hands with her or they went out of their way to help Annie down the road get her hip done. Views FG as too soft, yet knows nothing about them. Liked Haughey, Thinks Bertie is an angel, does not like Cowen. Would think about an independent in the next election. She turned 40 on last month.
 

Rebel CNC

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I don't think you can leave out the voter who didn't vote for Fianna Fail, but did vote for one of their candidates.

.
The original poster didn't leave this out -he/she called it "person voter".

He may have missed out public servant voter - no real party affinity but delighted with the pay rises and benefits he got from Benchmarking Bertie without having to give much up in return.
As things stand and with Cowen's silence on spending, they are even better off than they were in May 2007 due to falling interest rates and lower fuel bills and if they live near the border - huge price savings on day to day expendsiture.
 

wysiwyg

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That "person voter" is the strangest of all in my opinion... especially the ones that profess to hate the Government but still cannot see that by voting for the "local", they are supporting the Government... strange really
 

Question R24U

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Oct 5, 2008
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Fianna Fail was founded in 1926, it has been in government for 58 of the years since, in that time this country has come a very long way. Perhaps some perspective is required. In those 82 years:
1) we gained our independence fully from Britain through measures in the 1930s, particularly the Constitution..
2) we have taken out place amongst the nations of the Europe which has worked to our advantage.
3) We were 4th richest of that club and richer than Britain ($46k v $35k per GDP per capita)
4) We have net immigration for the last 10 years or so and an increasing population demographics which should back to pre-famine levels by 2050, notwithstanding net emigration for next 3-5 years.
5) we became one of the most globalised open economies exporting billions of goods and services per annum.
6) the slums were cleared and 75%+ of Irish people own their property (subject to a mortgage)
7) The pension, have been expanded beyond the comprehension of those who established in 1908.
8) Fewer than 6% of our population are now involved in agriculture.
9) We went as near to full employment as is possible (the change to which has become a major shock).
10) We are part of the first common currency in Europe for 2000 years.

However a massive gap appears to have opened uo between the party and the membership, the cabinet and the Parliamentary Party, the leader and his followers.

The danger is that Fianna Fail’s support has been falling with each decade. FF had 44% support in 1980s, 39 to 42% in the 90s and noughties, to what level will we fall in troublesome teens?

Every party bar FG, has entered government after an election since 1987 - so people know what a variation on a theme is; but will the People go for a more fundamental change? Either a FG and Labour on their own or (if the Greens are included the cabinet would be 7-6-2 depending on relative strength - hardly ideal for FG).

There are 850,000 FF voters, but there are also probably another 500,000 who give FF a 2nd,3rd or 4th preference (leaving 750,000 who are pure abff). So it is rich tapestry. If you want long term change then the PR STV system, which ties politics to the parish pump, will have to go.
 

jpc

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Jun 14, 2007
Messages
4,252
I believe there was a vote for Bertie (I'm not going to argue the rights/wrongs of this but i believe it existed); the immediacy of Bertie to the public or the public's familiarity with Bertie, however wrongly portrayed/lampooned in the media ensured that everyone knew Bertie at almost a personal level, unlike leaders of the opposition.
No one knew the Bert.
That was the Irony.
All smoke and daggers.
 

bada bing

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Aug 23, 2007
Messages
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Im a core Fianna Fail voter and a anti Brian Hayes voter. I hate that man.
 

smitchy2

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Jan 28, 2008
Messages
1,811
Fianna Fail was founded in 1926, it has been in government for 58 of the years since, in that time this country has come a very long way. Perhaps some perspective is required. In those 82 years:
1) we gained our independence fully from Britain through measures in the 1930s, particularly the Constitution..
2) we have taken out place amongst the nations of the Europe which has worked to our advantage.
3) We were 4th richest of that club and richer than Britain ($46k v $35k per GDP per capita)
4) We have net immigration for the last 10 years or so and an increasing population demographics which should back to pre-famine levels by 2050, notwithstanding net emigration for next 3-5 years.
5) we became one of the most globalised open economies exporting billions of goods and services per annum.
6) the slums were cleared and 75%+ of Irish people own their property (subject to a mortgage)
7) The pension, have been expanded beyond the comprehension of those who established in 1908.
8) Fewer than 6% of our population are now involved in agriculture.
9) We went as near to full employment as is possible (the change to which has become a major shock).
10) We are part of the first common currency in Europe for 2000 years.

However a massive gap appears to have opened uo between the party and the membership, the cabinet and the Parliamentary Party, the leader and his followers.

The danger is that Fianna Fail’s support has been falling with each decade. FF had 44% support in 1980s, 39 to 42% in the 90s and noughties, to what level will we fall in troublesome teens?

Every party bar FG, has entered government after an election since 1987 - so people know what a variation on a theme is; but will the People go for a more fundamental change? Either a FG and Labour on their own or (if the Greens are included the cabinet would be 7-6-2 depending on relative strength - hardly ideal for FG).

There are 850,000 FF voters, but there are also probably another 500,000 who give FF a 2nd,3rd or 4th preference (leaving 750,000 who are pure abff). So it is rich tapestry. If you want long term change then the PR STV system, which ties politics to the parish pump, will have to go.
Some very valid points but on the overall scheme of things seeing that the PR system will not change. Going through history since independence cannot be attributed to FF.
People will have to stop including FF on their voting sheets-just like FF tells people to leave off other parties when they vote.
 

junketman

Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
Messages
66
Fianna Fail was founded in 1926, it has been in government for 58 of the years since, in that time this country has come a very long way. Perhaps some perspective is required. In those 82 years:
1) we gained our independence fully from Britain through measures in the 1930s, particularly the Constitution..
2) we have taken out place amongst the nations of the Europe which has worked to our advantage.
3) We were 4th richest of that club and richer than Britain ($46k v $35k per GDP per capita)
4) We have net immigration for the last 10 years or so and an increasing population demographics which should back to pre-famine levels by 2050, notwithstanding net emigration for next 3-5 years.
5) we became one of the most globalised open economies exporting billions of goods and services per annum.
6) the slums were cleared and 75%+ of Irish people own their property (subject to a mortgage)
7) The pension, have been expanded beyond the comprehension of those who established in 1908.
8) Fewer than 6% of our population are now involved in agriculture.
9) We went as near to full employment as is possible (the change to which has become a major shock).
10) We are part of the first common currency in Europe for 2000 years.

However a massive gap appears to have opened uo between the party and the membership, the cabinet and the Parliamentary Party, the leader and his followers.

The danger is that Fianna Fail’s support has been falling with each decade. FF had 44% support in 1980s, 39 to 42% in the 90s and noughties, to what level will we fall in troublesome teens?

Every party bar FG, has entered government after an election since 1987 - so people know what a variation on a theme is; but will the People go for a more fundamental change? Either a FG and Labour on their own or (if the Greens are included the cabinet would be 7-6-2 depending on relative strength - hardly ideal for FG).

There are 850,000 FF voters, but there are also probably another 500,000 who give FF a 2nd,3rd or 4th preference (leaving 750,000 who are pure abff). So it is rich tapestry. If you want long term change then the PR STV system, which ties politics to the parish pump, will have to go.
Some points in response...

Fianna Fail is not, never was and never will be a progressive party.

In their 76 years or so of existance they have opposed everything resembling progress for the Irish people much in the way of the Taliban in Afghanisatan or the clerics of Iran, fearing perhaps that progress for the people will mean their grip on power loosened.

What tiny amounts of progressive legislation they did happen to introduce such as free secondary school education was forced on them because the opposition had proposed or were about to propose the same thing.

FF are a reactionary party always were and always will be. Its fine when the economy built by the people is going ok, and I give zero credit to FF for the good economy we had, but when the economy starts to turn, FF are unable to do anything to stop the slide.

FF have opposed divorce, they opposed the low corporate tax, they opposed the declaration of Ireland as a Republic, they opposed trade with Britain, and up to 1994 the Irish economy I think you will agree was a basket case under FF where thousands emigrated every year.

FF politicians build their reputation on the backs of dead patriots and many of their number have used their office to line their pockets and probably worse the pockets of their friends.
 
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