Doherty Raging Hot Favourite for Donegal South West

TonyB

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
801
Twitter
technopolitics
Well, ten days to polling day in Donegal South West and the odds are certainly interesting. Boylesports are offering a slamdunk on Pearse Doherty at 1/3, while second favourite Brian O Domhnaill languishes at 11/4, marginally ahead of the nice man from Fine Gael, Barry O'Neill, at 9/2. The Bull McBrearty follows at a distant 9/1, and independent Thomas Pringle is given a chance of 14/1.

Meanwhile, Paddy Power is more circumspect about Doherty's chances, but still makes him a 2/5 favourite, with O'Domhnaill pegged at 7/4. They seem to think it a two horse race, with O'Neill way off at 9/1, McBrearty 11/1, and - as they say in the trade - 33/1 bar those.

Interesting discrepancy between the two. Doherty might get more transfers than a "regular" Sinn Fein candidate, given his profile and his contribution to democracy in the High Court. But he'll still struggle on transfers. He won't get much out of Fine Gael, though MacBrearty's transfers should benefit him more than O'Domhnaill.

Is this race over before it begins? Or are the whispers in the dark corridors of Fianna Fáil plotting something the bookies know nothing about? Even The Irish Times gives the dark side a fighting chance.
 


MacCoise2

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2009
Messages
2,830
just bluff and bluster (and a bit of money- they're still well off you know) from the gombeens
 

SlickWilly

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 21, 2010
Messages
500
I think he will be elected, maybe without reaching the quota! It will be interesting to see how many transfers, he will get from the blueshirts and fake socialists. Even though I have called for the reintroduction of s.31, this is a time possibly the only time ever, I would vote for a party, that was upto its kneck in sectarian blood! Quite simply the clowns in government have to go! Where are the ecology party of Ireland in the by-election, or have they even more clearly gone from green to yellow?
 

QuizMaster

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2004
Messages
3,193
Website
www.quizmatic.com
Every vox pop I've heard has been very good news for O'Domhnall.
I would not write off the effin effers just yet.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
5,570
Only locals will have a real idea of the residual FF vote. It may well be one of those constituencies that votes FF no matter what.
SF have made massive progress in this constituency and to be talked of as favourites in a three seater where as recently as 2002 the party got circa 10% is a remarkable achievement.
 

CorkHurler

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2004
Messages
545
Boylesports dont have a great record of setting odds on elections. I got 12/1 from them on Joe Higgins in the European elections and treated myself to a nice bottle of chateauneuf du pape after collecting my winnings. (Boylesports dont know that much about setting odds on horse racing either and prefer to feed punters a diet of lotto numbers and cartoon dog racing).
 

Social Conscience

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2010
Messages
1,273
Is it true FF have a double majority when they won this seat in 2007?

Its great to see how the worm has turned.
 

Aindriu

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 28, 2007
Messages
8,621
Fianna FAIL are backing on winning this so they can cling to power until 2012 :(

God help us all if the good people of Donegal South West behave like good little Fianna FAIL sheeple and vote the Fail(u)er in
 

TradCat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2005
Messages
1,989
Transfers will be interesting. If we don't get the importance of using PR to get rid of Fianna Fail by now we deserve them. Vote for the people you like then use the rest of the ballot to vote against FF. It's that simple.
 

Oldira1

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
1,466
Surely O'Neills transfers will go with the opposition rather than to Fianna Fail? I doubt Fine Gael will want to save Fianna Fail!
 

Aindriu

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 28, 2007
Messages
8,621
Transfers will be interesting. If we don't get the importance of using PR to get rid of Fianna Fail by now we deserve them. Vote for the people you like then use the rest of the ballot to vote against FF. It's that simple.
Why even use transfers? Just use no 1 and no others - that will stop them getting any transfer votes.
 

TonyB

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
801
Twitter
technopolitics
...It may well be one of those constituencies that votes FF no matter what...
I think that this is the election cycle (byelections plus GE) where that tenet is tested. The core vote for FF appears from opinion polls to have plummeted, the question is - like the Tories in Britain - do they get dissed in public, but voted for in secret ballot?

Surely O'Neills transfers will go with the opposition rather than to Fianna Fail? I doubt Fine Gael will want to save Fianna Fail!
Yeah, broadly speaking you'd think so. But Fine Gael do not transfer to SF traditionally. The transfers might fall on the floor instead.
 

JMcGynty

Active member
Joined
Nov 5, 2010
Messages
278
Is it true FF have a double majority when they won this seat in 2007?

Its great to see how the worm has turned.
Fianna Fail had 50% of the vote in the last general election which gave them two quota's and gave them two seats, the quota a candidate will have to reach in a bye election will be 50% of the vote plus 1
 

QuizMaster

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2004
Messages
3,193
Website
www.quizmatic.com
Why even use transfers? Just use no 1 and no others - that will stop them getting any transfer votes.
It's worrying that someone of your seeming intelligence fails to understand the importance of PR.

So I'll explain it again for beginners.

Suppose for a minute you are a Fine Gael supporter. You tick your box for FG and leave it at that.

Then when they count the votes, it's a 2 header between FF and SF. Fine Gael are knocked out. Now who do you want to win? Doherty? Well you could have helped him but chose not to, thereby helping Fianna Fail.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
5,570
I think that this is the election cycle (byelections plus GE) where that tenet is tested. The core vote for FF appears from opinion polls to have plummeted, the question is - like the Tories in Britain - do they get dissed in public, but voted for in secret ballot?
My thoughts also, going by opinion polls Thatcher would never have gotten near Westminster but the electorate kept voting her in.

If the public do go against FF in DSW then it will indicate to that party's hierarchy that the meltdown is well and truly on. If FF are abandoned here then it is all over for them.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Well, ten days to polling day in Donegal South West and the odds are certainly interesting. Boylesports are offering a slamdunk on Pearse Doherty at 1/3, while second favourite Brian O Domhnaill languishes at 11/4, marginally ahead of the nice man from Fine Gael, Barry O'Neill, at 9/2. The Bull McBrearty follows at a distant 9/1, and independent Thomas Pringle is given a chance of 14/1.

Meanwhile, Paddy Power is more circumspect about Doherty's chances, but still makes him a 2/5 favourite, with O'Domhnaill pegged at 7/4. They seem to think it a two horse race, with O'Neill way off at 9/1, McBrearty 11/1, and - as they say in the trade - 33/1 bar those.

Interesting discrepancy between the two. Doherty might get more transfers than a "regular" Sinn Fein candidate, given his profile and his contribution to democracy in the High Court. But he'll still struggle on transfers. He won't get much out of Fine Gael, though MacBrearty's transfers should benefit him more than O'Domhnaill.


Hmmm .... For those who follow the bookies ....

http://www.politics.ie/elections/71425-sen-paschal-donohoe-still-hot-favourite-dublin-central.html

I read a couple of crazy articles during the week from the usual lazy journalists inclduing Sam Smyth and others.
Dublin Central By-Election - FF the rank outsider as others jockey for position
But was just on the Paddy Power website.
Dublin Central - Irish By-elections Betting Odds from Paddy Power
Paschal is 8/13 and well ahead of others, who are 11/4.

Haven't been able to get a price from Celtic, but bookies are usually bang on.
For those who can't remember, O'Sullivan won by about 3,700 votes from FG, on the elimination of Bacik who was 1,300 behind FG in the penultimate count, the much tipped SF candidate coming 4th....
 

neiphin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
5,510
For those who can't remember, O'Sullivan won by about 3,700 votes from FG, on the elimination of Bacik who was 1,300 behind FG in the penultimate count, the much tipped SF candidate coming 4th....
did the bruder loss his deposit there ?
and the soldiers got over 44% in 07
 

Ringo Starr

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2010
Messages
697
Boylesports dont have a great record of setting odds on elections. I got 12/1 from them on Joe Higgins in the European elections and treated myself to a nice bottle of chateauneuf du pape after collecting my winnings. (Boylesports dont know that much about setting odds on horse racing either and prefer to feed punters a diet of lotto numbers and cartoon dog racing).

Very true, didnt get the odds here not bad, 200 will i've a nice return on an outsider. I believe the bookies are going on 'The dublin Press gang' commentary of events and speculation which is far removed from the thought of many voters particulary FG and FF
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,206
Surely O'Neills transfers will go with the opposition rather than to Fianna Fail? I doubt Fine Gael will want to save Fianna Fail!
There is a strong Protestant element to the Donegal FG vote and they certainly will not transfer to SF. In fact you can be certain that they will go out of their way to give O'Domhnaill their No.2 in the hope of beating Doherty.
 

onlyasking

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2008
Messages
5,660
There is a strong Protestant element to the Donegal FG vote and they certainly will not transfer to SF. In fact you can be certain that they will go out of their way to give O'Domhnaill their No.2 in the hope of beating Doherty.
Do you really have such a low opinion of Donegal's protestant community?
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top