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Donegal as a 5 seat Consituency


Ulster-Lad

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Oct 26, 2006
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Currently Donegal has 6 TDs. 3 each from Donegal SW and Donegal NE. The seats are currently filled in the SW by Doherty SF, McGinley FG, and Pringle IND. In the NE we have MacLochlainn SF, McConalogue FF, and McHugh FG.

Given the current situation in Donegal which one of the Donegal TDs is most likely to go? Personally, I think McGinley is out.
 

Ringo Starr

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Nov 8, 2010
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Dinny will retire, FG will lose seat. Pringle will lose out as well, hard for independent to cover so much ground. Talk of SF running third candidate but they're not that stupid.
 

Johnny Zordan

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Oct 16, 2012
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Mary coughlan and Pat the cope will be back in the dail after the next general election.
 

kbcav

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SF will run 3 here.Mclochlainn in inishowen doherty in south and cora harvey in the middle in finn valley.I wouldnt back against them taking 3 here.
 

Ulster-Lad

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What about the rise in FF.
FF will probably take one, maybe two seats. They do have some young politicians working hard in the county. Senator Brian Ó Domhnaill and TD Charlie McConalogue.

McGinley FG will be gone and I think McHugh FG is going to struggle to retain his seat. Pringle has support around Killybegs but no where else in the county really.
 

kbcav

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Mcginley wont run and pringle wont get in on dohertys huge surplus because he wont have a surplus.sf 3 fg 1 ff 1.
 

Cai

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SF will run 3 here.Mclochlainn in inishowen doherty in south and cora harvey in the middle in finn valley.I wouldnt back against them taking 3 here.
I'd back against them winning three, but putting three up makes sense in such a large constituency.
 

Ulster-Lad

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I'd back against them winning three, but putting three up makes sense in such a large constituency.
Cora Harvey is very popular in the Finn Valley.
 

Cai

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Cora Harvey is very popular in the Finn Valley.
It's just mathematics. Working from memory SF were in the high 20%s in Donegal last time. In current conditions they'll make the mid 30%s next time. That usually isn't enough for 3 in 5 seaters. It is possible though - especially if Pringle is knocked out early. It's just that I wouldn't put money on it.
 

TiredOfBeingTired

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Oct 13, 2011
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Lets not get too ambitious.
It's a long way away and we dont know who will be on the ballot paper.
A lot of things could happen between now and the next election?

  • Comebacks?
    Pat the Cope
    I cant see both O Domhnaill and Pat the Cope running for FF.
    They are too close together geographically.
    The Cope is getting old too.

    Sweary Mary
    More likely than the Cope.
    A lot younger
    McConalogue and O Donhnaill are to the north of the county
    FF have fewer options in the south of the county

    The Blaneys??? Where will this vote go?
  • New candidates?
    Nothing yet and independents or new parties would need to start appearing reasonably quick.
  • Who will be worst affected by the boundary changes?
    Anyone who got votes in the Bundoran-Ballyshannon-Ballintra area
    e.g. Pringle or Mary Coughlan if she ran

    Anyone who had a large amount of votes in a small area e.g. Pringle
  • Who will be best affected by the boundary changes?
    Anyone near the old boundary.

    Cora Harvey in Finn Valley could benefit here.
    Also Finn Valley havent had a TD in a long time.

    Brian O Domhnaill was close to the county divide.
  • If Dinny retires, who benefits?
    Doherty + O Domhnaill (Geographic); McHugh (other FG)
  • Anyone who got transfers from SF in 2011 will suffer.
    If SF try for 3 seats, Pringle wont have Doherty's surplus.
  • Mc Brearty wont get elected.
    You dont need me to tell you that.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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I'd say Pringle will be most vulnerable as Donegal as no Independent* has ever held his/her seat here in consecutive elections. I think he will get some of the greatly reduced Labour vote as Independent voters tend to the Left. But this will be diluted by a clawback from a recovering FF. He could also benefit from his Eurosceptic stance on the Fiscal Compact from SF transfers. Donegal is a Eurosceptic county and in that context, one wonders was this a factor in Pringle's SC challenge to the ratification of the bailout treaty (not the F.C. the ESF one).

* not counting Ind FF
 
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Ulster-Lad

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Good Post TiredofBeingTired. Don't forget that other Labour idiot either, Jimmy Harte. He hasn't a chance either.
 

True Republican

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Apr 3, 2008
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sinn fein would need to be polling at just over 40% in donegal to be in with a chance of 3 seats, also their vote would need to be evenly spread between 3 candidates. Personally i can see donegal going sf 2, ff 2 and fg 1. A section of the donegal electorate would be stupid enough to put coughlan back in if she decides to run again.
 

PO'Neill

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The same 2 for SF. But unfortunately probably 2 for FF :mad:
 
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