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the secretary

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This constituency is a 5 seater and had a real battle for the final seat in 2016.

Here are the results from the last time out:
Charlie mc Conalogue FF 17.1% elected
Pearse Doherty SF 14.1% elected
Pat The Cope Gallagher FF 13.9% elected
Joe Mc Hugh FG 11.5% elected
Pringle Ind 8.5% elected
Mac Lochlainn SF 7.8%
Tim Jackson Ind 4.9%
Dessie Shields Ind 5.1%
Gary Doherty SF 5.6%
Paddy Harte FG 3.9%
Niamh Kennedy Ind 2.5%
Frank Mc Brearty Ind 2.6%
Ian mc Garvey Ind 1.3%
Paula Flanagan Ind 0.6%
Michael Mooney Ind 0.5%
Cordelia Ferry Ind 0.1%


Joe Mc Hugh FG, is now a senior minister. He will very likely increase his FPV but it's very unlikely that he will take in a running mate who ever that may be.

Charlie Mc Conalogue FF and Pat The Cope FF will be reelected.

Pearse Doherty will be reelected and SF will throw the kitchen sink at getting Mac Lochlainn back into Dail Eireann. He wasn't popular in Inishowen last time and polled very poorly in Letterkenny. SF will only run 2 candidates this time.

Pringle faces a big challenge again. He wasn't fancied to make it last time but he came through in the end. He had the entire area south of the gap to the Gweebara bridge to himself. FG will get a candidate from this area next time. John mc Nulty, Kilcar or Niamh Kennedy, Killybegs.

There was a clatter of Indos, apart from Pringle, last time as you can see but none of them really challenged. Many of them won't run again. The indo tide is going out I think.

Now for Casey, will he run?
He is based in Inishowen and this is the home ground of Mc Conalogue and Mac Lochlainn. Who will he most effect? FF, SF?

IMO it will be
2 FF
1 SF
1 FG
and the final seat will be a real battle again between Pringle, SF and Casey if he runs.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,056
This constituency is a 5 seater and had a real battle for the final seat in 2016.

Here are the results from the last time out:
Charlie mc Conalogue FF 17.1%
Pearse Doherty SF 14.1%
Pat The Cope Gallagher FF 13.9%
Joe Mc Hugh FG 11.5%
Pringle Ind 8.5%
Mac Lochlainn SF 7.8%
Tim Jackson Ind 4.9%
Dessie Shields Ind 5.1%
Gary Doherty SF 5.6%
Paddy Harte FG 3.9%
Niamh Kennedy Ind 2.5%
Frank Mc Brearty Ind 2.6%
Ian mc Garvey Ind 1.3%
Paula Flanagan Ind 0.6%
Michael Mooney Ind 0.5%
Cordelia Ferry Ind 0.1%


Joe Mc Hugh FG, is now a senior minister. He will very likely increase his FPV but it's very unlikely that he will take in a running mate who ever that may be.

Charlie Mc Conalogue FF and Pat The Cope FF will be reelected.

Pearse Doherty will be reelected and SF will throw the kitchen sink at getting Mac Lochlainn back into Dail Eireann. He wasn't popular in Inishowen last time and polled very poorly in Letterkenny. SF will only run 2 candidates this time.

Pringle faces a big challenge again. He wasn't fancied to make it last time but he came through in the end. He had the entire area south of the gap to the Gweebara bridge to himself. FG will get a candidate from this area next time. John mc Nulty, Kilcar or Niamh Kennedy, Killybegs.

There was a clatter of Indos, apart from Pringle, last time as you can see but none of them really challenged. Many of them won't run again. The indo tide is going out I think.

Now for Casey, will he run?
He is based in Inishowen and this is the home ground of Mc Conalogue and Mac Lochlainn. Who will he most effect? FF, SF?

IMO it will be
2 FF
1 SF
1 FG
and the final seat will be a real battle again between Pringle, SF and Casey if he runs.

Thanks for posting this. How likely is it that Casey will run? If he does, that's a big cat among the pigeons.
 

Dame_Enda

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There should have been 2 SF last time but they made the absurd decision to run 3 candidates.
 

culmore

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If Niamh Kennedy runs for FG, she could take a second seat for them . McHugh is getting a lot of money for Donegal with grants for every sports club and major road works everywhere in the County , Pringle to loose out , so looks like 2FF 2 FG and 1 SF .
 

statsman

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If Niamh Kennedy runs for FG, she could take a second seat for them . McHugh is getting a lot of money for Donegal with grants for every sports club and major road works everywhere in the County , Pringle to loose out , so looks like 2FF 2 FG and 1 SF .

She wasn't selected at the convention, but I suppose she could be added as part of the gender quota?
 

the secretary

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If Niamh Kennedy runs for FG, she could take a second seat for them . McHugh is getting a lot of money for Donegal with grants for every sports club and major road works everywhere in the County , Pringle to loose out , so looks like 2FF 2 FG and 1 SF .

Not a hope of 2 FG seats. Look at the figures. Joe won't split that evenly.
Kennedy preformed very poorly last time as an independent.
 

Dame_Enda

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Casey has said he will be running there. So I think he would have a shot of denying SF a second seat given many SF voters supported him.
 

sic transit

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Casey has said he will be running there. So I think he would have a shot of denying SF a second seat given many SF voters supported him.
Almost as many opted for Higgins. They would be expected come back to the fold. It's a very different story voting for people when you can make direct contact with them.
 

automaticforthepeople

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Jun 22, 2012
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4,671
Casey won't be running in the general election. He won't get the publicity he craves on a national level and doesn't have the support on the ground in Donegal to run an effective on the ground campaign. In addition he also says he'll have a running mate in the other 3 constituencies he's committed to, Clare, Kerry and Derry. The campaign in Derry will be unfruitful since it elects to Westminster and Stormont but please don't anyone tell him that.
Who are these running mates? I suspect they only exist in his mind, just as when he was asked what woman he'd nominate to the Council of State, he looked up from his lectern in the debate and saw that Joan Freeman was free after the Presidential election.

Casey is living proof that wealth is no safeguard against ignorance nor the desire to make a fool of yourself.
 

statsman

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Any move by Casey yet?
 

statsman

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Messages
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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

tribade

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If Niamh Kennedy runs for FG, she could take a second seat for them . McHugh is getting a lot of money for Donegal with grants for every sports club and major road works everywhere in the County , Pringle to loose out , so looks like 2FF 2 FG and 1 SF .

There is precisely zero chance of FG returning two here. Most likely it will be Gallagher(FF), McConalogue(FF), Doherty(SF), McLaughlin(SF) and McHugh(FG) elected next time out
 

statsman

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Messages
55,056
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

old boy

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Aug 31, 2015
Messages
86
This constituency is a 5 seater and had a real battle for the final seat in 2016.

Here are the results from the last time out:
Charlie mc Conalogue FF 17.1% elected
Pearse Doherty SF 14.1% elected
Pat The Cope Gallagher FF 13.9% elected
Joe Mc Hugh FG 11.5% elected
Pringle Ind 8.5% elected
Mac Lochlainn SF 7.8%
Tim Jackson Ind 4.9%
Dessie Shields Ind 5.1%
Gary Doherty SF 5.6%
Paddy Harte FG 3.9%
Niamh Kennedy Ind 2.5%
Frank Mc Brearty Ind 2.6%
Ian mc Garvey Ind 1.3%
Paula Flanagan Ind 0.6%
Michael Mooney Ind 0.5%
Cordelia Ferry Ind 0.1%


Joe Mc Hugh FG, is now a senior minister. He will very likely increase his FPV but it's very unlikely that he will take in a running mate who ever that may be.

Charlie Mc Conalogue FF and Pat The Cope FF will be reelected.

Pearse Doherty will be reelected and SF will throw the kitchen sink at getting Mac Lochlainn back into Dail Eireann. He wasn't popular in Inishowen last time and polled very poorly in Letterkenny. SF will only run 2 candidates this time.

Pringle faces a big challenge again. He wasn't fancied to make it last time but he came through in the end. He had the entire area south of the gap to the Gweebara bridge to himself. FG will get a candidate from this area next time. John mc Nulty, Kilcar or Niamh Kennedy, Killybegs.

There was a clatter of Indos, apart from Pringle, last time as you can see but none of them really challenged. Many of them won't run again. The indo tide is going out I think.

Now for Casey, will he run?
He is based in Inishowen and this is the home ground of Mc Conalogue and Mac Lochlainn. Who will he most effect? FF, SF?

IMO it will be
2 FF
1 SF
1 FG
and the final seat will be a real battle again between Pringle, SF and Casey if he runs.
Disagree
1FG
2 SF
1FF
1IND
 

Clockwork

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Joined
Apr 25, 2017
Messages
93
Quite straight forward I would think;

2 SF - Doherty & McLoughlin
2 FF - McConalougue & The Cope
1 FG- McHugh

MAYBE just maybe, if a party ran a young, capable candidate, that could possibly work.
 

the secretary

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Joined
Jan 29, 2013
Messages
6,347
Martin Harley is going to be the second FG candidate.
He topped the poll in the finn valley in the locals in May and FG could have got three seats there.
A nice enough fella by all accounts.
He was thinking of resigning from FG due to Cllr Mc Brearty being added to the FG ticket against the will of the local FG organisation.
 

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