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Donegal North East


SFInbhear

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May 11, 2009
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443
How do posters believe this one will go? Will MacLochlainn finally make the breakthrough? Which FF seat will he take? How will the expenses fiasco effect McHugh and also not being based in the area himself. What impact will Harte make in a General Election or will Farren, who was elected to the council under the Labour banner, seek the nomination. There has been speculation that a hospital candidate may run. I think this has the potential to be a very exciting constituency.
 


back.again

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Mar 1, 2009
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12
It will indeed be interesting! The most interesting aspect however will be the FF ticket? Will they allow Keaveny on the ticket from Inishowen, or will Brogan take over the mantle from McDaid and FF run the three?! FF cant ignore Inishowen, they need a candidate out there!!

On Labour, I may be wrong but I think Farren is a mate of Harte's and was instrumental in convincing Harte to join Labour with the view of him being the candidate for the GE! I think it is a done deal already on Harte being the candidate! I think has already been announced!

With SF, much of his chances will depend on Keaveny with the whole Inishowen vote, if she runs, they split the local vote again however McHugh wont poll as strongly out this area next time and there will be enough to take either SF or Keaveny over the line imo! If Keaveny isnt on the FF ticket, MacLochlainn will walk into a seat!

Will FG run a candidate from Inishowen with McHugh? John Ryan?! or the former FG Mayor of Buncrana, who's name escapes me at this moment in time... I reckon they will push to be a running mate with Joe! Not that it will matter too much but it will again eat into the local Inishowen vote.......
 

SFInbhear

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May 11, 2009
Messages
443
It will indeed be interesting! The most interesting aspect however will be the FF ticket? Will they allow Keaveny on the ticket from Inishowen, or will Brogan take over the mantle from McDaid and FF run the three?! FF cant ignore Inishowen, they need a candidate out there!!

On Labour, I may be wrong but I think Farren is a mate of Harte's and was instrumental in convincing Harte to join Labour with the view of him being the candidate for the GE! I think it is a done deal already on Harte being the candidate! I think has already been announced!

With SF, much of his chances will depend on Keaveny with the whole Inishowen vote, if she runs, they split the local vote again however McHugh wont poll as strongly out this area next time and there will be enough to take either SF or Keaveny over the line imo! If Keaveny isnt on the FF ticket, MacLochlainn will walk into a seat!

Will FG run a candidate from Inishowen with McHugh? John Ryan?! or the former FG Mayor of Buncrana, who's name escapes me at this moment in time... I reckon they will push to be a running mate with Joe! Not that it will matter too much but it will again eat into the local Inishowen vote.......
I wasnt aware of the Labour situation, I wonder will Harte eat into McDaid's vote in Letterkenny?

MacLochlainn should take a seat, whether or not Keveaney runs or not. If Keveaney runs, the FF tag will discredit her and MacLochlainn is the obvious winner here. McHugh got a big vote here in 2007 and if FG are to run a second candidate, it will be in Inishowen.

Despite having a stronghold around Fanad, Niall Blaney is in serious trouble. Giving the unpopularity of the Government, his vote will drop and he will also will be starved of transfers. He got in on the back of Keveaney's transfers in 2007 but I believe MacLochlainn will be too far ahead of him. McDaid should be safe enough, his vote may drop but he will be more transfer friendly than Blaney will be.
 

Noggin

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Mar 5, 2010
Messages
15
If FF just run 2 with Blaney covering Milford/Letterkenny and Keaveney in Inishowen they may well hold their 2 seats even with a vote similar to that in the local elections, MacLochlainn may fall short yet again however he may benefit from Labour transfers and McHugh is safe!
 

locke

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May 2, 2007
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3,124
Seeing it's about as far as a constituency can be from mine, I don't know a huge amount about it, but can someone answer why Harte should have more of an impact as a Labour candidate than he did as an independent.

I know Labour are on the up at the moment, but the Labour vote shouldn't be as localised geographically as his personal vote, so it should come from all candidates
 

back.again

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Mar 1, 2009
Messages
12
If FF just run 2 with Blaney covering Milford/Letterkenny and Keaveney in Inishowen they may well hold their 2 seats even with a vote similar to that in the local elections, MacLochlainn may fall short yet again however he may benefit from Labour transfers and McHugh is safe!
McDaid cant stand Blaney and came out of retirement last time round in an attempt to block him!! i would put money on McDaid or Brogan being on the ticket! Wud FF run the 3 of them again?!

I dont see Harte making any further headway, he also had a few disillusioned FG'ers that will come back to McHugh this time round.

A hospital candidate would really put everything up for grabs! who would it be tho? Cllr Tom Crossan the Residents candidate in the last Town Council or a member of the staff in Letterkenny General?!?
 

Rocket Man

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Jun 25, 2010
Messages
355
If SF don' make a gain here then there really is no hope for them.
FF will certainly retain one seat, probably Blaney, McHugh shoud be safe also.
It would not be out of the question, I suppose, for FF to take two but, on balance, I would say Maclochlainn will make it.
I really can't see Lab being in contention.

So: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1
 

SFInbhear

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May 11, 2009
Messages
443
McDaid cant stand Blaney and came out of retirement last time round in an attempt to block him!! i would put money on McDaid or Brogan being on the ticket! Wud FF run the 3 of them again?!

I dont see Harte making any further headway, he also had a few disillusioned FG'ers that will come back to McHugh this time round.

A hospital candidate would really put everything up for grabs! who would it be tho? Cllr Tom Crossan the Residents candidate in the last Town Council or a member of the staff in Letterkenny General?!?
McDaid is out to finish Blaney so he will definitly run! Also if Keveaney runs this could be sold as an attempt to stop MacLochlainn taking a seat, which would play into MacLochlainn's hands as Inishowen will make sure they have a TD after the next election.
 

SFInbhear

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May 11, 2009
Messages
443
If SF don' make a gain here then there really is no hope for them.
FF will certainly retain one seat, probably Blaney, McHugh shoud be safe also.
It would not be out of the question, I suppose, for FF to take two but, on balance, I would say Maclochlainn will make it.
I really can't see Lab being in contention.

So: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1
Agree but I think it will be McDaid and not Blaney.
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

My bet is one for FG, FF and SF.

By they way could someone answer me this question. When IFF merged into FF how many members would've gone to SF? I heard some people didn't like it especially Neil Blaney's children and his widow who released a statement effectively disowning Niall Blaney.
 

back.again

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i reckon McHugh will hold & a letterkenny FF (as said before Brogan or McDaid!) and den a scrap between MacLochlainn, Blaney nd Keaveney! She's gonna be on d ticket! i reckon FF will have no choice but to run the 3 of them! another thing worth thinkin about is the fact that FG took 3 seats in Inishowen the last time out! Black Mickey, McGuinness and Ryan! If 1 of these run (prob Ryan) they will transfer a good Inishowen vote back to McHugh thus keeping his poll topping position (or close to it!)
 

dotski_w_

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i reckon McHugh will hold & a letterkenny FF (as said before Brogan or McDaid!) and den a scrap between MacLochlainn, Blaney nd Keaveney! She's gonna be on d ticket! i reckon FF will have no choice but to run the 3 of them! another thing worth thinkin about is the fact that FG took 3 seats in Inishowen the last time out! Black Mickey, McGuinness and Ryan! If 1 of these run (prob Ryan) they will transfer a good Inishowen vote back to McHugh thus keeping his poll topping position (or close to it!)
FF can't hold the 2nd seat without a very significant recovery nationally (I think they'd need to be about 30% in the state as a whole to be at the races) but the 1st seat is safe (as long as they stay above 12% nationally!) so they may as well run the 3 if all want to, as it won't make any difference.

SF really should be very safe for a gain here, even if they polled about the same nationally as '07, as there's an FF seat a-going and they are best placed to take it.

LP will massively increase their vote, but should still be a long way off. A credible candidate in a position to gather any Gilmore gale, and also one who will pick up a lot of the latent LP vote that would have voted LP before but didn't think they were credible there, Harte should do quite well. Don't be surprised to see him follow the footsteps of his Uncle Jack as Labour Senator.

And of course McHugh should be safe, even if he loses some votes to Harte. I mean, when has a marriage lost 2 seats in the same Irish election?!
 

old westie

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Nov 12, 2008
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Seeing it's about as far as a constituency can be from mine, I don't know a huge amount about it, but can someone answer why Harte should have more of an impact as a Labour candidate than he did as an independent.

I know Labour are on the up at the moment, but the Labour vote shouldn't be as localised geographically as his personal vote, so it should come from all candidates
Simple answer he wont have a major impact. He will improve the Lab vote up to possibly 4/5 % otherwise little impact.
 

old westie

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Nov 12, 2008
Messages
314
If SF don' make a gain here then there really is no hope for them.
FF will certainly retain one seat, probably Blaney, McHugh shoud be safe also.
It would not be out of the question, I suppose, for FF to take two but, on balance, I would say Maclochlainn will make it.
I really can't see Lab being in contention.

So: FF 1, FG 1, SF 1
Rocket man good eye sight from cork ? but very hot as regards your prediction.
I think there is several contests at play in DNE.
1. Who will FF run and how many......Feelings in 33rd county is the they dont want Keaveney and Mc Connellogue will get the nod.
Blaney is the most in danger but will rig a convention and def will be on the ticket.
Mc Daid as an independent or on the FF ticket will be difficult to dispose.
So im going for 1 mc Hugh 2. Mclochlainn 3 Mc Daid
 

SFInbhear

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May 11, 2009
Messages
443
Rocket man good eye sight from cork ? but very hot as regards your prediction.
I think there is several contests at play in DNE.
1. Who will FF run and how many......Feelings in 33rd county is the they dont want Keaveney and Mc Connellogue will get the nod.
Blaney is the most in danger but will rig a convention and def will be on the ticket.
Mc Daid as an independent or on the FF ticket will be difficult to dispose.
So im going for 1 mc Hugh 2. Mclochlainn 3 Mc Daid

Sounds about right. Blaney's only hope is that if McDaid steps aside for Brogan. I don't think he would have the same impact in the Letterkenny area that McDaid would. Whoever runs for FF in Inishowen will have a poisened chalice, as they would only be running to stop MacLochlainn and to mop up transfers for McDaid and Blaney. So I feel MacLochlainn will get the bulk of the Inishowen vote.
 

edwin

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Feb 5, 2009
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Sounds about right. Blaney's only hope is that if McDaid steps aside for Brogan. I don't think he would have the same impact in the Letterkenny area that McDaid would. Whoever runs for FF in Inishowen will have a poisened chalice, as they would only be running to stop MacLochlainn and to mop up transfers for McDaid and Blaney. So I feel MacLochlainn will get the bulk of the Inishowen vote.
Keaveney was a TD for 11 years before the last GE and, if I remember correctly, outpolled MacLochlainn in Inis Eoghain by quite some distance so your attitude is a little curious. Padraig also failed miserably in the locals to bring in a running mate so stellar he isn't. FF need to run somebody in Inis Eoghain - that has always been a given.

Similarly to SW, Sinn Fein will pick up a lucky gain due to being the next person in line after the FF vote collapse. In the medium term Donegal will become a 5 seater and one of those SF seats is a goner. On the plus side you'll have one safe seat as opposed to a 40/60 chance in two marginals. McConologue will also likely blitz Inis Eoghain when he eventually runs for the Dáil - just posturing this time as he'd be silly to run.
 

SFInbhear

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Keaveney was a TD for 11 years before the last GE and, if I remember correctly, outpolled MacLochlainn in Inis Eoghain by quite some distance so your attitude is a little curious. Padraig also failed miserably in the locals to bring in a running mate so stellar he isn't. FF need to run somebody in Inis Eoghain - that has always been a given.

Similarly to SW, Sinn Fein will pick up a lucky gain due to being the next person in line after the FF vote collapse. In the medium term Donegal will become a 5 seater and one of those SF seats is a goner. On the plus side you'll have one safe seat as opposed to a 40/60 chance in two marginals. McConologue will also likely blitz Inis Eoghain when he eventually runs for the Dáil - just posturing this time as he'd be silly to run.
Yes but obviously FF's aim is to consolidate their own position, (i.e. their two seats.) And in case you haven't noticed, since 2007 Fianna Fail have destroyed the country!!!! It mightn't have reached the bright sparks in Donegal FF yet, but most people in Donegal have realised this.
On your second point of Donegal becoming a five seater, which is a strong possibility, as emigration is due to rise (myself included) due to the economic incompetence of your heroes in government, I believe Sinn Fein will continue to mop up stray FF voters as the Soldiers demise continues!!!
 

charley

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Sounds about right. Blaney's only hope is that if McDaid steps aside for Brogan. I don't think he would have the same impact in the Letterkenny area that McDaid would. Whoever runs for FF in Inishowen will have a poisened chalice, as they would only be running to stop MacLochlainn and to mop up transfers for McDaid and Blaney. So I feel MacLochlainn will get the bulk of the Inishowen vote.
Letterkenny people won't vote for blaney they like to have their own TD, Brogan will pull a similiar vote to McDaid
 

SFInbhear

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Letterkenny people won't vote for blaney they like to have their own TD, Brogan will pull a similiar vote to McDaid
I wouldn't be too sure of Brogan pulling in all of McDaids vote. I know Blaney wouldn't benefit but could Harte, with the absence of McDaid, benefit as he would have the advantage of being local as well as anti-government.
In my opinion, McDaid will run again.
 

culmore

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Jun 14, 2010
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Blaneys always make it and will again next time they have the political machine even if his expenses are very high, Mchugh should also make it, and McDaid if he runs, if not McDaid Mclaughlin will make it for SF .
 

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