Donegal South West By-election prediction

adrem

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I've set this up as a new thread 'cos the other one is getting sidelined into Kenyy bashing/defending.

Anyway - can we get some predictions for this election?

Here's some background data which may help
Donegal South West - first preference votes (Source Guthan Phobail)

2007
FF 50.52%
FG 23.00%
SF 21.23%
Greens 1.47%
LAB 2.78%
Independents 0.00%

2002
FF 42.08%
FG 25.41%
SF 10.74%
Greens 0.00%
LAB 3.02%
Independents 18.72%

1997
FF 38.03%
FG 22.97%
SF 0.00%
Greens 4.21%
LAB 4.19%
Independents 30.58%

1992
FF 48.67%
FG 37.73%
SF 3.30%
Greens 0.00%
LAB 6.12%
Independents 4.15%
(1992 Democratic Left included in LAB vote)

It's not beyond the bounds that FG would nip in ahead of SF and take this one. Some of the LAB vote (which will be high) will come from people that would otherwise vote SF.
 


JoeHickey

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Sinn Féin have to my knowledge never won a By election since the 1920s, so if Pearse was to come through and win it would be a massive result.
 

Sean-Bhean bhoct

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Why are most people ruling out FF here?

The two Donegal constituencies are massively unpredictable and given their geographical area amongst other things, tend not to base their vote on the issues that dominate national discourse. They are quite insular in that regard.

With a good candidate, FF have to be in the running here. If Bonner runs, I think he has a good chance of taking it.

In any event, it'll be an interesting one to watch.
 

culmore

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doherty to win, only hope for Ff is if The Cope comes back, FG might have a chance if their man is close to doherty on first count as he will get more transfers, but Doherty best bet
 

civilserpant

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Between FF and SF. FF have a good chance, Donegal is FF heartland, after all, going into the 2007 GE, after Blaney rejoined, they had 5 from 6 TDs.

I'd expect SF to poll much better in the by-election than a GE, even if it were a month later, as some FG and Labour voters (not the organisations, who'll use this as practise) will swing in behind the higest profile opposition candidate, in this case Doherty - and I see disenfranchised FF Donegal voters being far more likely to switch to SF than FG.

Don't rule FF out.If they get 30% 1st prefs in Donegal, which would be heartland territory, it'll be hard for any opposition candidate to win, unless they really transfer well.
 

civilserpant

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doherty to win, only hope for Ff is if The Cope comes back, FG might have a chance if their man is close to doherty on first count as he will get more transfers, but Doherty best bet
The Cope catagorically announced this am that he won't be running. he said he was asked last night by senior FF, but wouldn't run this time and will serve out his MEP-ship.
 

White Horse

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FF will still poll around 30% - 35%.

Can Sinn Fein get that high of a first preference vote?

I think it will be a tall order for them.

I suspect that FG will take the seat due to being more transfer friendly. However, it is very hard to call.
 

QuizMaster

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I would have said FG were favourites, but P. Doherty has played a blinder and must now be in the driving seat.

Not only will he have a huge boost in first prefs, but he will become transfer-friendly.
I'd say even FG voters will transfer to him.

This country has become leaderless in a time of crisis, and the people are looking everywhere for someone to show a bit of leadership and inspire them.
Doherty is one of the few people who took decisive action.

I'm no fan of Sinn Fein and have never voted for them.
I'm just saying, like. Put your shirt on Doherty.
 

setanta

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Sinn Féin have to my knowledge never won a By election since the 1920s, so if Pearse was to come through and win it would be a massive result.
And if they don't then there will be very serious ramifications for SF. This is a high wire act for SF. A win will cement them in Donegal and, with the anticipated loss of the Dublin and Kerry seats in the forthcoming GE, will clearly paint them as a "border" party. A loss will deny them even this marginal role in the politics of this state.
 

QuizMaster

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And if they don't then there will be very serious ramifications for SF. This is a high wire act for SF. A win will cement them in Donegal and, with the anticipated loss of the Dublin and Kerry seats in the forthcoming GE, will clearly paint them as a "border" party. A loss will deny them even this marginal role in the politics of this state.
I wish I could agree with you, but I'm thinking the Doherty boost will go beyond Donegal and give them all a bit of a lift.
I was saying last week they'd get 5 seats in the next GE.
Right now I'm thinking 7 seats, but snoddy is still a dead man walking.
 

Clanrickard

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Kerrygold

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And if they don't then there will be very serious ramifications for SF. This is a high wire act for SF. A win will cement them in Donegal and, with the anticipated loss of the Dublin and Kerry seats in the forthcoming GE, will clearly paint them as a "border" party. A loss will deny them even this marginal role in the politics of this state.
Anticipated loss of Kerry?

Anticipated by who, Arthur "Anglo Irish" Spring? :lol:
 

mickdotcom

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I would have said FG were favourites, but P. Doherty has played a blinder and must now be in the driving seat.

Not only will he have a huge boost in first prefs, but he will become transfer-friendly.
I'd say even FG voters will transfer to him.

This country has become leaderless in a time of crisis, and the people are looking everywhere for someone to show a bit of leadership and inspire them.
Doherty is one of the few people who took decisive action.

I'm no fan of Sinn Fein and have never voted for them.
I'm just saying, like. Put your shirt on Doherty.
Totally agree with you

Doherty played a blinder- he is articulate, intellegent and clean hands

the publicity he is getting couldnt have been bought by the richest man going,

even if he had lost in the High Court- he would still have won on the long

game. The seat is Sinn Fein's for the taking- they can only lose it now.
 
D

Duth Ealla

Anticipated loss of Kerry?

Anticipated by who, Arthur "Anglo Irish" Spring? :lol:
Hey leave Arthur alone. Banking runs in the Family. He cant help it. Uncle Spring keeps himself busy on the AIB board where they all ended up pushing one of the old boys for the top job.

Dick and Arthur Spring - could you trust them to challenge the banks. Look at Dick's record for that one.
 

adrem

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Lads - stay on topic - leave the Springs and the Anglos for the relevant threads please !!
 

QuizMaster

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Totally agree with you

Doherty played a blinder- he is articulate, intellegent and clean hands

the publicity he is getting couldnt have been bought by the richest man going,

even if he had lost in the High Court- he would still have won on the long

game. The seat is Sinn Fein's for the taking- they can only lose it now.
He needs to play it cool and be the nice acceptable face of Sinn Fein for the wider public who never would have touched them before.
Like you say it's his to lose, which he could do if he goes around looking like too much of a shinner.
If I was advising them, I'd say keep Gerry Adams away. Sell the man not the party. The party vote will be there anyway.
 
D

Duth Ealla

Lads - stay on topic - leave the Springs and the Anglos for the relevant threads please !!
Yeah but he started it :)

seriously though this bye is more a referendum about how best to challenge the misguided ( and probably corrupt) policies of the govt.

Voters can go for leadership, and fresh thinking which gets results or go for more of the same.

This is the first proper crisis election and its going to throw up all kinda strange results I think (or at least I hope).

I think Pearse will win it and I think subsequently that win will have a strong impact on SF across the state.

There would be no election without Pearse of SF and the electorate will know that.
 


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