• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Double- dip recession


richie268

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Messages
2,160
Although America can print money like Ireland grows grass Greenspan is nervous about a
double dipper hitting the states.

Amid worries about a slowdown in economic recovery, Mr Greenspan said: "We're in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery but a pause in the modest recovery feels like a quasi-recession."
Questioned on NBC's Meet the Press programme about whether the US could slide into another recession he said: "It is possible if home prices go down. Home prices, as best we can judge, have really flattened out in the last year.

Alan Greenspan warns that US could be heading for double-dip recession - Telegraph

For Ireland a doubledipper is inevitable as cut backs alone are often responsible and we cant print money.
For Ireland a triple-dipper?
 

Ó Donnchadha

Well-known member
Joined
May 27, 2010
Messages
2,091
The numbers don't look good here in the US. The unemployment rate is hovering over 9%. here in the US that is bad. A normal rate should be around 5%.

Corporate America and the Banks are holding on to Trillions of dollars. Companies won't spend, and banks won't lend, if they feel uncertainty. With Barak Obama they feel uncertain.

But as far as Alan Greenspan, I was just listening to a well known finanacial expert, and he stated, that he was frankly sick of liestening to Alan Greenspan. He still wants the spotlight.

Greenspan is no longer in charge of the Fed. He should mind his manners.

The good news is that we are not in an inflationary or deflationary cycle.

Printing money would be the wrong thing to do. Keynsian economics is and obsolete set of economic theories. Printing money would push uis into inflationary cycle.
 
Last edited:

Cassandra Syndrome

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,908
We're f*cked.
 

Magror14

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2008
Messages
1,893
Greenspan published a 550 page tome in 2007 called the Age of Turbulence and did not manage to even hint at the soon to happen economic meltdown. I have severe reservations about anything he says.

The one good thing you can say about the Irish depression is that it is largely focussed on the construction sector. The upside of the property crash is that it will allow us to regain some of our competitiveness.
 

LeDroit

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2010
Messages
1,771
The one good thing you can say about the Irish depression is that it is largely focussed on the construction sector. The upside of the property crash is that it will allow us to regain some of our competitiveness.
Totally wrong. The recession started in construction due to the credit crunch and the banking crisis but our unemployment going from 4% to 14% has affected all sectors and demand in everything from retail to professional services has collapsed. I'm in regular contact with a range of businessmen working in diverse fields and the best that people are seeing is a 20% reduction in demand and the worst is around 80%. That's for the guys still in business. Three companies a day are closing or going bust in Ireland. Those companies are in every field.

Though I mentioned a 14% unemployment rate, the truth is nearer to 20%. Self employed people are not in the figures, nor are those on 'training' courses in Fas. In addition there are an enormous amount of people on disability benefit with dodgy medical certs so they can get some benefits.

On the question of whether we will have a double dip recession, i have something to say. We are not out of recession. GDP is used as the measure but this includes the FDI crowd. If you use GNP, ie Irish companies goods and services produced, we are still receding by about 0.2% in the last quarter. The GDP myth is hiding the figures. Much was made of a positive sales growth number last quarter. If you take carsales out, sales shrank by 2% in the last quarter. We are still in recession.

The US is more likely to hit a double dipper as they are in a false position at the moment on the back of the stimulus plan. It's coming to an end now, there won't be another one, and it didn't work. If demand and confidence fall in the US coming into the all important Thanksgiving and Christmas sales periods then they could definitely drop back into recession in the first quarter of 2011. Also, God forbid, but if Al Qaeda produce a spectacular on the homeland in the last quarter of this year, people will stay at home and those holiday sales figures will collapse.
 

Magror14

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2008
Messages
1,893
OK I used my language badly. What I should have said was that the most acute aspect of the Irish depression is the construction sector. The sharp rise in unemployment came from construction drying up. This affected many professionals (solicitors architects) and other sectors more indirectly. The other aspects of our economy could recover. Foreign export firms and the food industry. Also we can generate real money from renewables. Yeah sure, we will not be rich but we can regroup our economy around a more diverse and resilient core of key sectors. The lesson we have just learned should also stand to us in the long term.
 

Magror14

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2008
Messages
1,893
Also I am not wrong that the explosion in property prices was one of the main drivers in wage costs and the resulting loss in competitiveness.
 
Joined
Jul 8, 2010
Messages
8
We've yet to see a commercial collapse here, all those companies hanging on in the hope of a rebound will go to the wall, and probably by the years end. When that hits, it will hit hard which could result in a double-dip.
 

hiker

Well-known member
Joined
May 9, 2005
Messages
1,961
We've yet to see a commercial collapse here...
I think the tax revenue collapse is a sure indication of commercial collapse.
There are still a lot of companies still operating but at 50% the levels of 2005-2008.

Obviously there will always be some commercial activity; we have not returned yet to bartering, but for sure the commercial collapse has already happened.

Where do you think 350,000 unemployed people came from?
The Public Sector?
 
Joined
Jul 8, 2010
Messages
8
I think the tax revenue collapse is a sure indication of commercial collapse.
There are still a lot of companies still operating but at 50% the levels of 2005-2008.

Obviously there will always be some commercial activity; we have not returned yet to bartering, but for sure the commercial collapse has already happened.

Where do you think 350,000 unemployed people came from?
The Public Sector?
You are correct but as i've highlighted in your comment it's happening, not happened. Companies treading water for the moment will soon find they have no other option put to close up shop and with that will come defaults on commercial loans and commercial mortgages. My point being that we have yet to see the full effect of a commercial collapse.
 

Munnkeyman

Moderator
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Messages
7,189
I think the tax revenue collapse is a sure indication of commercial collapse.
There are still a lot of companies still operating but at 50% the levels of 2005-2008.

Obviously there will always be some commercial activity; we have not returned yet to bartering, but for sure the commercial collapse has already happened.

Where do you think 350,000 unemployed people came from?
The Public Sector?
From ISME this year alone

Profits are flatlining for 38 per cent of businesses, Irish company owners said. Close to one-third (30 per cent) of them saw profits fall, and 22 per cent have experienced losses this year to date. Just 10 per cent of businesses are seeing profits increase.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-enterprise-leaders-predict-lift-in-two-years-2280557.html
 

hammer

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 6, 2009
Messages
58,514
Live register will hit 500,000

FAS training about 90,000

FAS predicts further job losses next year of net 15,000

25% are in negative equity.

Wages are falling, taxes are to rise and the muppets in charge are trying to encourage people to spend.

Bloody sure there will be a double dip.......................
 

richie268

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Messages
2,160
Live register will hit 500,000

FAS training about 90,000

FAS predicts further job losses next year of net 15,000

25% are in negative equity.

Wages are falling, taxes are to rise and the muppets in charge are trying to encourage people to spend.

Bloody sure there will be a double dip.......................
The bad news
Unemployment on the increase
Cuts in wealfare
Increases in charges
American bonds are dirt
Property prices racing to the bottom
Emigration on the increase hence no demand for the over supply
Banks and government refuse to come clean
Interest rates on the rise
Tourism declining
Oil prices on the rise
Medical insurance rising by 7% per year (doubling the cost in 10 years)
4 Nasty budgets
The two Brians
Greece
Spain and so on
Over supply of everything not needed

So I am gonna leave the latter at that and skip to the good news.
The IMF!
 

Magror14

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2008
Messages
1,893
The bad news
Unemployment on the increase
Cuts in wealfare
Increases in charges
American bonds are dirt
Property prices racing to the bottom
Emigration on the increase hence no demand for the over supply
Banks and government refuse to come clean
Interest rates on the rise
Tourism declining
Oil prices on the rise
Medical insurance rising by 7% per year (doubling the cost in 10 years)
4 Nasty budgets
The two Brians
Greece
Spain and so on
Over supply of everything not needed

So I am gonna leave the latter at that and skip to the good news.
The IMF!
Was that supposed to be a poem? Where is the metre? Where is the rhymn?
 
Top