DSW - Next Election

drjimryan2

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Nov 16, 2009
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1,784
hi all.......

lots happening here......with their poor showing in the presidential poll are Sinn Fein/ira on for a repeat of 07?
is Paul Murphy toast? is water a non issue now
can FF win two or will it just be tallaman, with the famous curse hitting la hart.......
can fg take two or will Brophy go.....
are labour going anywhere?
and what about Zappone.......can she hold on.....

interesting times.....its all to play for....
 


automaticforthepeople

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Jun 22, 2012
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Sinn Fein may be under pressure here, Séan has lost before. He's regarded as a good worker on the ground but has a low profile nationally. Murphy will do well as he has a lot of middle class support which turns out. A large working class area with a long record of apathy has hit SF before and may well hit it again. Zappone polled well in middle class areas in 2016 but the arrival of O'Malley Dunlop into the FG fold will attract women voters back.

Zappone has the advantage of the Genocky resignation from Labour. She is close to Zapper and was nominated as Labour's candidate. I reckon she'll back Minister Zappone and that may well bring her close to the line with extra working class votes but not over it. That may impact on SF first preferences.

Murphy, Brophy, Mr Tallaght all certain, after that it'll be a scramble. I think it'll be tight between SF & Zapper for the last seat with SF at the minute more likely to shade it on Murphy's transfers.
 
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Hitchcock

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Nov 17, 2012
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I tend to think this is largely predictable.

Lahart, Brophy, Murphy and Crowe are pretty nailed on - certainly the first three.

The only real question is if Zappone hangs on. O'Malley-Dunlop's selection is precisely aimed at taking her out. (It's a little depressing that figures like O'Malley Dunlop and Deirdre Duffy both Toegther for Yes people have thrown their lot in with a party that was largely pulled kicking and screaming to the table on abortion).
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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I'd like to add this thread to my predictions project. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

Hope that's OK.

The candidates so far appear to be:

Deputy Colm Brophy (Fine Gael)
Deputy Paul Murphy (Sol)
Deputy Katherine Zappone (Indo)

Ellen O’Malley Dunlop (Fine Gael)
Deputy John Lahart (Fianna Fáil)
Charlie O’Connor (Fianna Fáil)
Deputy Sean Crowe (Sinn Féin)
Cllr. Carly Bailey (Social Democrats)
Cllr. Francis Noel Duffy (Green Party)

The Labour candidate has left the party since the nomination convention.
 

the secretary

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I tend to think this is largely predictable.

Lahart, Brophy, Murphy and Crowe are pretty nailed on - certainly the first three.

The only real question is if Zappone hangs on. O'Malley-Dunlop's selection is precisely aimed at taking her out. (It's a little depressing that figures like O'Malley Dunlop and Deirdre Duffy both Toegther for Yes people have thrown their lot in with a party that was largely pulled kicking and screaming to the table on abortion).
Only when some people are pulled and ripped up they cant scream.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 AAA/PBP/Sol, and last seat between Zappone (Ind) and FG. Anne Marie Dermody came within 1000 votes (approx) of the 4th seat last time. Inds generally are likely to suffer if the national polls are correct. This is Eamon Gilmore's former constituency and Labour had 2 seats here in 2011 but now has zero and they were 5000 votes off of the last seat in 2016, though in part that was because they unwisely ran 2 candidates (the combined Labour vote would have been 3000 approx short of a seat if it was just for one candidate).
 

statsman

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Zappone has been a pretty high profile Minister; will that not help her vote?
 

hollandia

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Sep 11, 2012
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Zappone has been a pretty high profile Minister; will that not help her vote?
I imagine she'll get a bounce from the last two referenda and for sticking it to Frankie the Hat. I'd have thought she'd be safe enough.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Mar 8, 2005
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I imagine she'll get a bounce from the last two referenda and for sticking it to Frankie the Hat. I'd have thought she'd be safe enough.
Probably, but she did only get 0.4 of a quota last time. Her vote will be up, but so will FG's, and Zapper is unlikely to have that ginormous Independent transfer in the final count that she got last time. Also, O'Malley Dunlop is really the last type of person she'd want to see appear on the horizon, to fight for that middle-class feminist vote that was previously all hers.
 

hiding behind a poster

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1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 AAA/PBP/Sol, and last seat between Zappone (Ind) and FG. Anne Marie Dermody came within 1000 votes (approx) of the 4th seat last time. Inds generally are likely to suffer if the national polls are correct. This is Eamon Gilmore's former constituency and Labour had 2 seats here in 2011 but now has zero and they were 5000 votes off of the last seat in 2016, though in part that was because they unwisely ran 2 candidates (the combined Labour vote would have been 3000 approx short of a seat if it was just for one candidate).
Two candidates made sense for Labour - they didn't have an outgoing TD and needed to tap into the two very different wings of their support (such as it was) in the constituency.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Mar 8, 2005
Messages
49,529
hi all.......

lots happening here......with their poor showing in the presidential poll are Sinn Fein/ira on for a repeat of 07?
is Paul Murphy toast? is water a non issue now
can FF win two or will it just be tallaman, with the famous curse hitting la hart.......
can fg take two or will Brophy go.....
are labour going anywhere?
and what about Zappone.......can she hold on.....

interesting times.....its all to play for....
To suggest that O'Connor would beat Lahart is just loopy.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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55,055
I imagine she'll get a bounce from the last two referenda and for sticking it to Frankie the Hat. I'd have thought she'd be safe enough.
Probably, but she did only get 0.4 of a quota last time. Her vote will be up, but so will FG's, and Zapper is unlikely to have that ginormous Independent transfer in the final count that she got last time. Also, O'Malley Dunlop is really the last type of person she'd want to see appear on the horizon, to fight for that middle-class feminist vote that was previously all hers.
I'd say she'll pick up some FG 3rd prefs, no?
 


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