DSW - Next Election



hiding behind a poster

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Mar 8, 2005
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Depends how long the count goes on.
It doesn't really. If Zappone is at risk, it's from the second FG candidate, and if that second FG candidate is eliminated, then Zappone is most likely home anyway. Far more likely is that one of Zappone and the second FG candidate is elected, with the other finishing 6th but not eliminated. So again, no FG votes trickling down to Zapper as 3rd prefs.
 

hiding behind a poster

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remember maureen osullivan.....it can be a long night indeed....
Yes but this is about whether FG third preferences could help Zappone. I'm saying that I can't see how they'd come into play.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

Bertie's Hat

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Aug 6, 2017
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I haven't heard any mention of Senator Lynn Ruane running. She would surely have a very good chance.

Zappone will likely lose seat.

Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
 

gijoe

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I tend to think this is largely predictable.

Lahart, Brophy, Murphy and Crowe are pretty nailed on - certainly the first three.

The only real question is if Zappone hangs on. O'Malley-Dunlop's selection is precisely aimed at taking her out. (It's a little depressing that figures like O'Malley Dunlop and Deirdre Duffy both Toegther for Yes people have thrown their lot in with a party that was largely pulled kicking and screaming to the table on abortion).
Wow. That's some apt quote right there!
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

statsman

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So its March 2020........

what affect will that date have on the field?
A good question. It also allows a lot more time for housing to either be tackled or become a major issue.
 

Shiloh

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Sep 12, 2008
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328
I think FF's strategy of running 3 candidates is crazy and will backfire. They will only get Lahart. Brophy will also make it along with Crowe and Murphy. Fifth seat will go to Duffy. Watch out for a good showing from Aherne. He wont make it this time but he is one for the future. No room for Zappone to return.

My predictions for this rainbow constituency is 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Murphy and 1 Green
 

ankles

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Apr 13, 2010
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Is Murphy solid? Also Duffy might hope to ride the Green wave but he's not a strong candidate. But I agree Zappone will struggle to pull together enough to survive like last time...
 

jkc

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May 12, 2007
Messages
195
Murphy in big trouble according to Paddy Power betting - Crowe 1/40, Brophy 1/14, Lahart 1/7, Duffy 2/5, Zappone 4/9 and them Murphy 6/4, Ahern 2/1
 

Shiloh

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Sep 12, 2008
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Murphy got 9000 first prefs last time. If he is in trouble where's that vote going to go? Will SF rue not running two candidates here?
 

drjimryan2

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lets not forget.....hayes in 2002, crowe in 2007, lenihan in 2011......all poll toppers who subsequently lost their seats..........
 

drjimryan2

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Nov 16, 2009
Messages
1,784
Well it seems its all to play for......

Sean Crowe to top the poll......would they have got two?.....

The sf/ira surplus will, I imagine help Murphy......

Will Brophy hold for fG's one?

Lahart to break the 'curse'....

and who will take the last?

Fun and Games........
 


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