Dublin Bay North GE2020

Frank Castle

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With the clock ticking, let's look at the warriors lining up to do battle. There are 5 seats up for grabs.
Richard Bruton FG
Sean Haughey FF
Finian Mcgrath Ind
Tommy Broghan Ind
Denise Mitchell SF

FG is going Back to the Future again, last time they ran Stephanie Regan, as they needed a woman on the ticket. This time they are going full carpetbagger mode by running Sen Noone from Mayo via the southside alongside "Slick Ric" and again he will use her to get himself elected.

FF is also doing Back to the Future like FG, running Sean Haughey and Cllr Heaney on the ticket, Heaney is again like Noone cannon fodder to get Sean over,

The last three seats will be a Battle Royal,
the contenders will be

Denise Mitchell SF
Tommy Broghan Ind
Finian McGrath Ind
Cian O'Callaghan Soc Dem
Aodhan O'Riordan Lab
David Healy Greens

Rank Outsiders

Jimmy Guerin
Stephanie Regan
Averil Power
Keith Redmond
John Lyons
 


gijoe

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The Greens have to be well odds-on for a seat so one of the other 3 will have to lose out. One of the Independents most likely.
 

carlovian

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Finian was on Sean o rourke claiming that the government had built 10,000 social houses. (Real figure is about 3,200)

Does this mean if he gets 3,200 votes he can count it as 10,000 ?
 

Frank Castle

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The Greens have to be well odds-on for a seat so one of the other 3 will have to lose out. One of the Independents most likely.
Mcgrath has gotten his hands dirty with his Govt Involvement, Broghan has been solid working away in the background, I also think that he might get some of the Labour votes and some of O'Callaghanns votes to get over.
The fascinating aspect for me is this Sen Noone, on paper one could argue she choose DBN to have a run because of the vote in the referendum but Bruton always guts his running mates, Breen, O'Muiri twice, Reagan,.
 

Frank Castle

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Finian was on Sean o rourke claiming that the government had built 10,000 social houses. (Real figure is about 3,200)

Does this mean if he gets 3,200 votes he can count it as 10,000 ?
Perhaps Maths isn't his thing,
 

Northsideman

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Heney has done herself no favours in being one of the ten councillors who voted against the proposal to boycott the RIC/DMP gig and that has really pissed off most of the FF locals. You'd have to wonder WTF she was thinking when she decided to vote as she did. Her first pref will surely drop because of that and she'll suffer on the transfers also, if ever someone shot themselves in the foot she did.
 

the secretary

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Heney has done herself no favours in being one of the ten councillors who voted against the proposal to boycott the RIC/DMP gig and that has really pissed off most of the FF locals. You'd have to wonder WTF she was thinking when she decided to vote as she did. Her first pref will surely drop because of that and she'll suffer on the transfers also, if ever someone shot themselves in the foot she did.
If she is that stupid then it serves her right.
 

Frank Castle

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My spy in FG tells me that the Dublin Bay North has been split up 75% allocated to Sen Noone and Minister Bruton only getting 25%. Bruton cant knock on the doors or put up posters in her area, bit odd me thinks
 

crossman

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Heney has done herself no favours in being one of the ten councillors who voted against the proposal to boycott the RIC/DMP gig and that has really pissed off most of the FF locals. You'd have to wonder WTF she was thinking when she decided to vote as she did. Her first pref will surely drop because of that and she'll suffer on the transfers also, if ever someone shot themselves in the foot she did.
I can't see that having much effect. FF won't get two seats anyway.
 

Northsideman

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No, I think Heaney will pocket a Senators gig from helping Haughey top the poll.
How can she help Haughey top the poll if she is also on the ticket? That will split the FF first pref vote.
 

Northsideman

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I can't see that having much effect. FF won't get two seats anyway.
Agree there ain't two there for them, but it will most likely push Haughey's first pref up and Heney's down and very small margins often matter.
 

Rocky

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My spy in FG tells me that the Dublin Bay North has been split up 75% allocated to Sen Noone and Minister Bruton only getting 25%. Bruton cant knock on the doors or put up posters in her area, bit odd me thinks
The aim is obviously to win two seats. Bruton is an awful lot stronger than Noone and has a massive profile, so the mindset is that he can afford to give all that area over to Noone and still get elected, which I would say is true. Whether Noone can get elected even with all that help is obviously another question though.
 

Northsideman

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My spy in FG tells me that the Dublin Bay North has been split up 75% allocated to Sen Noone and Minister Bruton only getting 25%. Bruton cant knock on the doors or put up posters in her area, bit odd me thinks
Both have posters on Malahide Road.
 

Frank Castle

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How can she help Haughey top the poll if she is also on the ticket? That will split the FF first pref vote.
Just think of all the leaflets her people will drop with Haugheys name on them, there is only seat for FF and history shows us Haughey always beats her
 

Northsideman

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Just think of all the leaflets her people will drop with Haugheys name on them, there is only seat for FF and history shows us Haughey always beats her
Both will have the others name on their drops but they will be so small as to be almost illegible, that's the nature of inter party rivalries no love lost whatsoever. Agree Haughey to win the FF stakes pulling up.
 

Frank Castle

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Both have posters on Malahide Road.
maybe they divided certain areas but the lad I know is on one of there committees, but again much like the FF efforts here, only one FG seat here, Bruton's imperious record of taking opponents out will continue since he dispatched Geroge Bermingham he always ensures he wins, but never with a running mate.
 


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