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Dublin bay north locals 2019

lostexpectation

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still think theres a troll operating online re the dublin bay north arguing with himself on multiple accounts to attack female politicians in Fine Gael he doesn't like...
 
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Degeneration X

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Degeneration X

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Just looking back at my predictions from 2 years ago in Post #92 of this thread and of course a lot has changed since then. I've no local knowledge just commenting based on current and predicted trends and my own ideas.

Artane-Whitehall (6 seats) :
11 candidates going for the seats here and there's a few councillors moving over from the Beaumount ward. Sinn Féin should be solid for two here with Larry O'Toole a proven vote-getter and he should bring in Edel Moran to sow up the two seats.

Declan Flanagan is the sole FG candidate and should be good for a seat while Fianna Fail should also win one seat, I'll go with Sean Paul Mahon over Rachael Batten despite him failing to win a seat in the last two local elections.

I presume the John Lyons running here is the former People-before-Profit candidate? If so, he has a good enough profile to hold his seat here but it could be tight as a sitting councillor is guaranteed to lose out here. Alison Gillians of Labour and Independent Councillor Paddy Bourke formerly Labour are both running again here. I reckon it'll be tight but Bourke might just edge out Gillians.

Predictions :
SF - 2 (O'Toole and Moran)
FG - 1 (Flanagan)
FF - 1 (Mahon)
Ind - 2 (Lyons and Bourke)


Clontarf (6 seats) :
This area remains the same as 2014 but could prove to be very interesting. The seats were basically sorted after the first count last time but I imagine it'll be closer this time.

I reckon Fianna Fail will hold on to their two with Deirdre Heney running alongside the latest Haughey, Cathal so they should be relatively safe.

Fine Gael will be seeking two seats but that seems unlikely here. Naoise O'Muiri is a solid performer in local elections and should hold on but I think Jeff Johnston will poll decently but not enough.

Jane Horgan-Jones of Labour done well to hold the seat in 2014 and she should be good to do the same again this time. Ciaran O'Moore of Sinn Fein also got elected in 2014 for the first time but he seems to have been relatively quiet since then so he may be at risk.

Damian O'Farrell had a mammoth vote in 2014 so even if he lost 50% of his vote he'd still get elected. After that, the only potential threat for a seat may be Donna Cooney of the Greens who was 7th in 2014 and the Greens' support looks to have risen but she might not have enough here.

Predictions :
FF - 2 (Haughey and Heney)
FG - 1 (O'Muiri)
Lab - 1 (Horgan-Jones)
SF - 1 (O'Moore)
Ind - 1 (O'Farrell)

Actually sticking with my prediction from two years ago, but the most interesting results will be SF and if they're threatened by FG2/GP


Donaghmede (5 seats) :
This is quite an interesting LEA with a new councillor certain to be elected.

Tom Brabazon will surely secure one seat for Fianna Fail while Daryl Barron has a reasonable chance of a seat here.

Fine Gael are running 3 here, presumably in the hope of winning two seats. Terence Flanagan is back in the fold after his stint in Renua and he has a solid enough vote to win a seat. Suzanne McDonnell and Maria Mulvany are the other two FG candidates and I think Mulvany has a decent chance of taking that 5th seat.

I'm surprised Sinn Fein are just running the one candidate here but Michael MacDonncha should hold on easily enough here. Labour used to be very strong here with Sean Kenny so it'll be interesting how their candidate Shane Folan performs here. If they are to make any sort of recovery nationally, then they should be winning back seats like this.

Michael O'Brien is running for Solidarity/PBP and I think he will get re-elected with there being no SF2 candidate. There is also candidates from the Social Democrats, Aontú and Green Party whose transfers may decide the fate of the 5th seat.

Predictions :
FG - 2 (Flanagan and Mulvany)
FF - 1 (Brabazon)
SF - 1 (MacDonncha)
Sol - 1 (O'Brien)


Howth-Malahide (7 seats) :
This seems like a straightforward one to call but I would be slightly cautious. I think Dr. Tom Daly can be ruled out which leaves 8 fighting for 7.

All of the outgoing councillors are running again except Keith Redmond and the other candidate is Aoibhinn Tormey of Fine Gael.

I reckon Cian O'Callaghan (Social Democrats), Daire Ni Laoi (Sinn Fein), Eoghan O'Brien (Fianna Fail) and Anthony Lavin (Fine Gael) should all hold on. I think David Healy (Greens) will be safe because they seem to be polling decently while Brian McDonagh (Labour) managed to win in 2014 so he should be ok in 2019. Jimmy Guerin is a two-term Independent councillor and his GE vote in 2016 was weak enough which may be put him at risk here although he usually holds up in the LE. Tormey is a decent candidate I just can't see her taking a seat off any of the incumbent councillors.

Predictions :
FF - 1 (O'Brien)
FG - 1 (Lavin)
Lab - 1 (McDonagh)
SF - 1 (Ni Laoi)
GP - 1 (Healy)
SD - 1 (Callaghan)
Ind - 1 (Guerin)
I wonder if Roe for the Soc Dems has a chance in Artane-Whitehall - she is Shorthall's staffer and is from the area in the Whitehall end and RS got 10000 votes last GE. She could have an outside chance.
 

KingKane

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Just looking back at my predictions from 2 years ago in Post #92 of this thread and of course a lot has changed since then. I've no local knowledge just commenting based on current and predicted trends and my own ideas.

Artane-Whitehall (6 seats) :
11 candidates going for the seats here and there's a few councillors moving over from the Beaumount ward. Sinn Féin should be solid for two here with Larry O'Toole a proven vote-getter and he should bring in Edel Moran to sow up the two seats.

Declan Flanagan is the sole FG candidate and should be good for a seat while Fianna Fail should also win one seat, I'll go with Sean Paul Mahon over Rachael Batten despite him failing to win a seat in the last two local elections.

I presume the John Lyons running here is the former People-before-Profit candidate? If so, he has a good enough profile to hold his seat here but it could be tight as a sitting councillor is guaranteed to lose out here. Alison Gillians of Labour and Independent Councillor Paddy Bourke formerly Labour are both running again here. I reckon it'll be tight but Bourke might just edge out Gillians.

Predictions :
SF - 2 (O'Toole and Moran)
FG - 1 (Flanagan)
FF - 1 (Mahon)
Ind - 2 (Lyons and Bourke)
Larry O'Toole to top the poll, probably getting 2/3 of the SF vote which is where the problem comes from for them.

SF are in real fight with John Lyons and I would expect that Lyons will get elected, except if Gilliland is already elected when Batten is eliminated in which case Moran could get the seat instead of Lyons.

Gilliland will likely have enough to hold on.

As should Bourke, though I suspect he's vulnerable to losing some votes to the SocDems.

Flanagan should be fine so long as there is a general upswing for FG since 2014. He actually got 2/3 of his vote last time out in what is now Donaghmede. So he needs to improve on that to get reelected. He'll be a good bell weather for how the party is doing across the city. If he's in the top 4 on the first count, it could be a good day, if he's outside the top six by a 3 figure margin then it's going to be a poor day (I don't believe that will happen though).

So O'Toole, Mahon, Gilliland, Bourke, Flanagan, and Lyons

Clontarf (6 seats) :
This area remains the same as 2014 but could prove to be very interesting. The seats were basically sorted after the first count last time but I imagine it'll be closer this time.

I reckon Fianna Fail will hold on to their two with Deirdre Heney running alongside the latest Haughey, Cathal so they should be relatively safe.

Fine Gael will be seeking two seats but that seems unlikely here. Naoise O'Muiri is a solid performer in local elections and should hold on but I think Jeff Johnston will poll decently but not enough.

Jane Horgan-Jones of Labour done well to hold the seat in 2014 and she should be good to do the same again this time. Ciaran O'Moore of Sinn Fein also got elected in 2014 for the first time but he seems to have been relatively quiet since then so he may be at risk.

Damian O'Farrell had a mammoth vote in 2014 so even if he lost 50% of his vote he'd still get elected. After that, the only potential threat for a seat may be Donna Cooney of the Greens who was 7th in 2014 and the Greens' support looks to have risen but she might not have enough here.

Predictions :
FF - 2 (Haughey and Heney)
FG - 1 (O'Muiri)
Lab - 1 (Horgan-Jones)
SF - 1 (O'Moore)
Ind - 1 (O'Farrell)

Actually sticking with my prediction from two years ago, but the most interesting results will be SF and if they're threatened by FG2/GP
I would say that SF's goose is cooked here. Moore was wholly surprised to get elected the last time, and he's been pretty anonymous since then. He'll probably place in 7th on the first count but he'll not get transfers to overall those ahead of him.

O'Farrell's vote will weaken but I'd still expect him to top the poll.

Heney will be 2nd, OMuíri 3rd, then Horgan Jones /Haughey / Johnston making up the next three.

However, I suspect that Jones, Haughey and Johnston will be much closer than one might expect, perhaps under 200 between them

And here's the rub, I don't reckon that Haughey will get the transfers needed to stay in the top six. Heney won't have much of a surplus once she gets elected. I would look at one of Stocker or Cooney to overhaul him.



Donaghmede (5 seats) :
This is quite an interesting LEA with a new councillor certain to be elected.

Tom Brabazon will surely secure one seat for Fianna Fail while Daryl Barron has a reasonable chance of a seat here.

Fine Gael are running 3 here, presumably in the hope of winning two seats. Terence Flanagan is back in the fold after his stint in Renua and he has a solid enough vote to win a seat. Suzanne McDonnell and Maria Mulvany are the other two FG candidates and I think Mulvany has a decent chance of taking that 5th seat.

I'm surprised Sinn Fein are just running the one candidate here but Michael MacDonncha should hold on easily enough here. Labour used to be very strong here with Sean Kenny so it'll be interesting how their candidate Shane Folan performs here. If they are to make any sort of recovery nationally, then they should be winning back seats like this.

Michael O'Brien is running for Solidarity/PBP and I think he will get re-elected with there being no SF2 candidate. There is also candidates from the Social Democrats, Aontú and Green Party whose transfers may decide the fate of the 5th seat.

Predictions :
FG - 2 (Flanagan and Mulvany)
FF - 1 (Brabazon)
SF - 1 (MacDonncha)
Sol - 1 (O'Brien)
Brabazon will in the top two along with McDonnacha.

SF made a mistake here not running someone to replace O'Brien. I think they'd have gotten two then.

Flanagan should get one since he has more name recognition than any of the others. That said his vote in this area was under a 1,000 in the last GE and he not from there area and lives elsewhere. Still as a former TD, if he's not in the top three, then his comeback is somewhat stalled

There's a new Raheny based seat to be had and it's going to be between Monahan and Mulvany. It could even be both of them, benefiting from Labour/Green transfers that won't go to FF/SF when it comes down the final counts.

Howth-Malahide (7 seats) :
This seems like a straightforward one to call but I would be slightly cautious. I think Dr. Tom Daly can be ruled out which leaves 8 fighting for 7.

All of the outgoing councillors are running again except Keith Redmond and the other candidate is Aoibhinn Tormey of Fine Gael.

I reckon Cian O'Callaghan (Social Democrats), Daire Ni Laoi (Sinn Fein), Eoghan O'Brien (Fianna Fail) and Anthony Lavin (Fine Gael) should all hold on. I think David Healy (Greens) will be safe because they seem to be polling decently while Brian McDonagh (Labour) managed to win in 2014 so he should be ok in 2019. Jimmy Guerin is a two-term Independent councillor and his GE vote in 2016 was weak enough which may be put him at risk here although he usually holds up in the LE. Tormey is a decent candidate I just can't see her taking a seat off any of the incumbent councillors.

Predictions :
FF - 1 (O'Brien)
FG - 1 (Lavin)
Lab - 1 (McDonagh)
SF - 1 (Ni Laoi)
GP - 1 (Healy)
SD - 1 (Callaghan)
Ind - 1 (Guerin)
 

Degeneration X

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Larry O'Toole to top the poll, probably getting 2/3 of the SF vote which is where the problem comes from for them.

SF are in real fight with John Lyons and I would expect that Lyons will get elected, except if Gilliland is already elected when Batten is eliminated in which case Moran could get the seat instead of Lyons.

Gilliland will likely have enough to hold on.

As should Bourke, though I suspect he's vulnerable to losing some votes to the SocDems.

Flanagan should be fine so long as there is a general upswing for FG since 2014. He actually got 2/3 of his vote last time out in what is now Donaghmede. So he needs to improve on that to get reelected. He'll be a good bell weather for how the party is doing across the city. If he's in the top 4 on the first count, it could be a good day, if he's outside the top six by a 3 figure margin then it's going to be a poor day (I don't believe that will happen though).

So O'Toole, Mahon, Gilliland, Bourke, Flanagan, and Lyons



I would say that SF's goose is cooked here. Moore was wholly surprised to get elected the last time, and he's been pretty anonymous since then. He'll probably place in 7th on the first count but he'll not get transfers to overall those ahead of him.

O'Farrell's vote will weaken but I'd still expect him to top the poll.

Heney will be 2nd, OMuíri 3rd, then Horgan Jones /Haughey / Johnston making up the next three.

However, I suspect that Jones, Haughey and Johnston will be much closer than one might expect, perhaps under 200 between them

And here's the rub, I don't reckon that Haughey will get the transfers needed to stay in the top six. Heney won't have much of a surplus once she gets elected. I would look at one of Stocker or Cooney to overhaul him.





Brabazon will in the top two along with McDonnacha.

SF made a mistake here not running someone to replace O'Brien. I think they'd have gotten two then.

Flanagan should get one since he has more name recognition than any of the others. That said his vote in this area was under a 1,000 in the last GE and he not from there area and lives elsewhere. Still as a former TD, if he's not in the top three, then his comeback is somewhat stalled

There's a new Raheny based seat to be had and it's going to be between Monahan and Mulvany. It could even be both of them, benefiting from Labour/Green transfers that won't go to FF/SF when it comes down the final counts.
I'm not as confident about Horgan-Jones or Giliand as I would have been a few weeks back, Labour have had a very poor election campaign.

SF couldn't have replaced O'Brien because he is still running for another party like last time. Do you mean SF should have run two in Donaghmede? If so I agree.
 

Degeneration X

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by replace I mean taken his seat. I should have been clearer.
Maybe, SF only had a 0.9 quota last time in Donaghmede in the GE so they played it safe. No idea why FG would run three with a 0.9 quota. FG are crazy.

Also can't see JJ beating Haughey III in Clontarf.
 

lostexpectation

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D7aM8uPW4AA8qDP.jpg

Sinn Fein dropped 7% from last time out why or how did they get so many votes last time? ElectionsIreland.org: 2014 Local - Howth Malahide First Preference Votes

the HM ward lost a chunk from Kinsealy and Balgriffin eds near Swords/Airport http://www.boundarycommittee.ie/reports/LEA BC No. 2 Report - FINAL WEBSITE MASTER COPY.pdf

Seanmmac predicted a SF last time Howth Malahide
It will be a serious and not so far fetched a prospect for SF to pick off the final seat here. The area includes a large chunk of a working class vote from Swords (Kinsealy, Drynham, Holywell) that was largely unregistered in the last locals. The constituency is traditionally a FF/FG stronghold but tines and demographics have changed. Its a tough one to call but I'd say 1FF, 2FG, Cian o'c and one other
 
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Degeneration X

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View attachment 18235

Sinn Fein dropped 7% from last time out why or how did they get so many votes last time? ElectionsIreland.org: 2014 Local - Howth Malahide First Preference Votes

the HM ward lost a chunk from Kinsealy and Balgriffin eds near Swords/Airport http://www.boundarycommittee.ie/reports/LEA BC No. 2 Report - FINAL WEBSITE MASTER COPY.pdf

Seanmmac predicted a SF last time Howth Malahide
Surprised Tormey beat Lavin in First Preferences - SF lost in a area with just 9 going for 7. Quite poor.
 

wombat

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Looks like SF are losing votes to FF.
 

wombat

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FF beat FG in three of the four Lea's. FF should have run a second in Howth-Malahide as should Greens.
Its always a gamble, run too many you can lose all, run too few and you underperform on a good day.
 

Degeneration X

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Its always a gamble, run too many you can lose all, run too few and you underperform on a good day.
Yeah, even the Greens didn't see it coming. Also maybe they couldn't find the candidates. Though FG should have known better than to run three in Donaghmede. Flanagan now needs his personal vote to carry him over.
 


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