Dublin Bay South: Call the next GE results


Norman Bates

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At present the four TDs are:
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
Eoghan Murphy - Wikipedia
Kate O'Connell (FG)
Kate O'Connell - Wikipedia
Eamonn Ryan (Green)
Eamon Ryan - Wikipedia
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)

All incumbents should be contesting the next GE.

My prediction is that FG (2) and FF (1) should retain their seats. Eamonn Ryan may be vulnerable to a surge in Labour support - doubtful - or to Sinn Féin if they put up a very strong candidate, although FF is not quite home and dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Bay_South_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)
 
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PBP voter

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Round tower

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At present the four TDs are:
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
Eoghan Murphy - Wikipedia
Kate O'Connell (FG)
Kate O'Connell - Wikipedia
Eamonn Ryan (Green)
Eamon Ryan - Wikipedia
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)

All incumbents should be contesting the next GE.

My prediction is that FG (2) and FF (1) should retain their seats. Eamonn Ryan may be vulnerable to a surge in Labour support - doubtful - or to Sinn Féin if they put up a very strong candidate, although FF is not quite home and dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Bay_South_(Dáil_constituency)
I expect his sister Miriam will give him plenty of free, untroubled, free publicity during the campaigb
 

gatsbygirl20

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Dublin Bay South (4 seats): Deputy Eoghan Murphy, (Fine Gael), Deputy Kate O’Connell (Fine Gael), Deputy Jim O’Callaghan (Fianna Fail), Cllr. Chris Andrews (Sinn Féin), Senator Kevin Humphries (Labour Party), Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats), Deputy Eamon Ryan (Green Party)
Candidates for the next (2018-2021) General Election by constituency | Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses

SF have selected Chris Andrews again.
There was an expectation that Chris Andrews would have done better the last time because of his pedigree

I think Éamonn Ryan is totally safe
 

gatsbygirl20

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I'd agree Chris Andrews was very disappointing with only 9.5%. Still not sure about Eamonn Ryan though
You think?

Éamonn is well known and liked in the constituency. Not that that always translates into votes

There is also the perception that the Greens are the safe soft left candidates now that Labour has tanked.

We'll see...

(Kevin Humphreys was a good hard working guy, but lost his seat in the Labour cull)
 

Northsideman

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At present the four TDs are:
Eoghan Murphy (FG)
Eoghan Murphy - Wikipedia
Kate O'Connell (FG)
Kate O'Connell - Wikipedia
Eamonn Ryan (Green)
Eamon Ryan - Wikipedia
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)

All incumbents should be contesting the next GE.

My prediction is that FG (2) and FF (1) should retain their seats. Eamonn Ryan may be vulnerable to a surge in Labour support - doubtful - or to Sinn Féin if they put up a very strong candidate, although FF is not quite home and dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_Bay_South_(D%C3%A1il_constituency)
A surge in Labour support? Are you sound of mind or just had a few?
 

Northsideman

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Norman is sane and abstemious. Underestimate him at your peril
Seriously can anyone see a surge in Labour support? They are presently a rudderless ship with a washed up captain and a motely crew made up of the likes of the loose cannon that is AK47 and the deluded crewman Amadan who has been drinking sea water.

Far from a surge the tide is well and truely out and they are left high and dry.
 

Dame_Enda

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A leftwing seat is possible here if SF and Labour can agree some kind of pact, which is unlikely. Renua got 10.8% first preferences and won 4880 votes before they were eliminated. Question is was that just Lucinda's personal vote, or an actual conservative, Renua type vote that will stay with them? I think while Renua doesnt seem to be going anywhere in polls, a seat can't be entirely ruled out. When SF was eliminated in 2016, Labour only won around 800 2nd preferences in the next count. Renua transfers seem to have gone mainly to FG and FF. Question is if Renua doesnt hold up, where will its votes go? In my opinion the status quo is the most likely outcome.
 

Florence

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Is Eoghan Murphy safe considering his handling of the housing crisis? and will his FG colleague kate support him in constituency strategy to maximise the FG vote? I think Eamon Ryan is vulnerable and that kevin Humphreys has a personal vote from people who think he is a decent man and are not card carrying Labour members. The last seat will be tight. And how will the new Social Democrat candidate do? Glenna Lynch did well for a first outing.
 

Dame_Enda

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Is Eoghan Murphy safe considering his handling of the housing crisis? and will his FG colleague kate support him in constituency strategy to maximise the FG vote? I think Eamon Ryan is vulnerable and that kevin Humphreys has a personal vote from people who think he is a decent man and are not card carrying Labour members. The last seat will be tight. And how will the new Social Democrat candidate do? Glenna Lynch did well for a first outing.
The Greens were on 2.7% last time and won two seats nationally, one of them in this constituency. They were on 4% in the Presidential election exit poll so I would assume they are stronger now and will hold the seat. NB I mean the national exit poll. Ryan got 4000 transfers and finished first by the time he was elected on Count 7.
 

statsman

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Is Eoghan Murphy safe considering his handling of the housing crisis? and will his FG colleague kate support him in constituency strategy to maximise the FG vote? I think Eamon Ryan is vulnerable and that kevin Humphreys has a personal vote from people who think he is a decent man and are not card carrying Labour members. The last seat will be tight. And how will the new Social Democrat candidate do? Glenna Lynch did well for a first outing.
I think people over-estimate the impact of the housing 'crisis'.
 

gatsbygirl20

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I think people over-estimate the impact of the housing 'crisis'.
Unfortunately, that is true.

Homelessness is like the health crisis--it does not impact on everyone

Politicians are often amazed when canvassing, how uninterested voters on the doorsteps are in the health crisis, despite the media's rolling reporting on it

It rarely features

However the general air of incompetence which attaches to the government because of the housing crisis could dent voter confidence generally.
 

statsman

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Unfortunately, that is true.

Homelessness is like the health crisis--it does not impact on everyone

Politicians are often amazed when canvassing, how uninterested voters on the doorsteps are in the health crisis, despite the media's rolling reporting on it

It rarely features

However the general air of incompetence which attaches to the government because of the housing crisis could dent voter confidence generally.
Polling figures indicate otherwise, though.
 

locke

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Seriously can anyone see a surge in Labour support? They are presently a rudderless ship with a washed up captain and a motely crew made up of the likes of the loose cannon that is AK47 and the deluded crewman Amadan who has been drinking sea water.

Far from a surge the tide is well and truely out and they are left high and dry.
There's nothing in the polls to suggest even a modest increase in support.

But in the last election, they were absolutely transfer toxic. That should change this time out as it did for the Greens in 2016. The longer until the next election, the better this becomes for them.
 

redhead

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Seriously can anyone see a surge in Labour support? They are presently a rudderless ship with a washed up captain and a motely crew made up of the likes of the loose cannon that is AK47 and the deluded crewman Amadan who has been drinking sea water.

Far from a surge the tide is well and truely out and they are left high and dry.
I think the point of these threads is to look at the support in the constituency. While overall support can give some indicator, it is not the whole story.

Labour had a strong base in what was DSE, even during the boom times, although that was largely to do with the fact that Quinn was able to appeal to a broad section of the constituency, and people who would have voted PD would transfer to him.

Kevin Humphries, while a very able TD and long-serving council member in his ward, drew most of his support from the working-class areas of the constituency.

Had he had more than one term to establish himself as a TD, he may have got back in last time, although it is hard to gauge as he benefitted from the Labour surge when elected (there is no other way Labour would have had two candidates elected in the constituency) and Quinn's transfers. His failure to get reelected can also be partially put down to the subsequent Labour backlash.

Neither result was indicative of Labour's performance and support in the constituency over the past few decades in 'normal' general elections.

If they can field a candidate that will appeal to Eamon Ryan's voters, not necessarily Green supporters but left of centre socially and appealing enough to moderate economic liberals, they could garner enough first preferences and transfers to be a credible threat to Ryan.
 

hollandia

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I think the point of these threads is to look at the support in the constituency. While overall support can give some indicator, it is not the whole story.

Labour had a strong base in what was DSE, even during the boom times, although that was largely to do with the fact that Quinn was able to appeal to a broad section of the constituency, and people who would have voted PD would transfer to him.

Kevin Humphries, while a very able TD and long-serving council member in his ward, drew most of his support from the working-class areas of the constituency.

Had he had more than one term to establish himself as a TD, he may have got back in last time, although it is hard to gauge as he benefitted from the Labour surge when elected (there is no other way Labour would have had two candidates elected in the constituency) and Quinn's transfers. His failure to get reelected can also be partially put down to the subsequent Labour backlash.

Neither result was indicative of Labour's performance and support in the constituency over the past few decades in 'normal' general elections.

If they can field a candidate that will appeal to Eamon Ryan's voters, not necessarily Green supporters but left of centre socially and appealing enough to moderate economic liberals, they could garner enough first preferences and transfers to be a credible threat to Ryan.
Can't see it at the minute. In traditional Labour areas the swing to and from Labour nationally is multiplied. So, in a good year for Labour (2011, for example) they'll get two elected. In a bad year, they'll get no-one elected.
 
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