Dublin Bay South: Call the next GE results


Expose the lot of them

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Just boarded, I am getting too old for this crack. Dubai airport is a nightmare, I remember it when it was a tin shack with about 10 flights a day. Time to sell up and move to France.i
 

hiding behind a poster

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I agree. I live in Dublin Bay South and I don't find admiration for Eamon Ryan. the view is he got his bum on a ministerial seat and his principles vanished (as happened with John Gormley). The last seat will be a cliffhangar.
At the end of the day, Ryan got 11% of the vote in 2016 and still got elected, so there's no certainty that the people who don't like him now didn't already dislike him in 2016.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Though Dublin Bay South is regarded as an affluent area, the housing crisis is relevant there. There are many private rented properties there (good and bad) and those who have grown up there cannot afford to buy there and they are angry. I am helping a friend who rents in Elgin Road ballsbridge (near to the US Embassy) and the landlord has issued eviction notices to the 15 tenants in her house and to the 15 tenants in the adjacent house which he also owns. Now the eviction notice is invalid but most of the tenants have reluctantly gone believing it was genuine. Politics.ie members need to be be aware of this scam - a landlord may seek vacant possession if he is doing major renovation works requiring vacant possession. However such work normally requires planning permission especially if the building is a protected structure. In this upmarket D4 road the eviction notice declared the landlord did not require planning permission and how would the ordinary person know whether that was true?

A few tenants remain. Their heating is no longer on - eviction day is Nov 9. Perhaps it has broken down or perhaps it is to encourage the tenants to go next week? I understand the Minister for Housing whose constituents these people are, has been informed. What will he do? If he acts to stop them becoming homeless he will have their votes.
If they're renting, there's no certainty that they have votes in DBS.
 

Dame_Enda

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The statistics beg to differ:

Analysis: Election 2016 Transfer Patterns






The enclosed table shows transfers from SF went largely to FF, Indos, FG and Labour in that order.
Labour historically have been fairly successful at getting transfers at least from FG but it seems those days may be over for now at least. I think Left-Right issues (at least on economic policy - I dont think FG is socially conservative though a minority are) are becoming more evident in voting and transfer patterns. The Left are transferring to each other more, though in 2016 Labour was regarded as the black sheep of the Socialist family for selling out on water charges and presiding over austerity. Question is, having gone into Opposition, will FG further lose out on FG transfers, or win back more leftwing ones.

I would add however that particularly in rural Ireland, geographical considerations are still important. But in cities without a rural hinterland, its increasingly about ideas rather than places. Cities have historically been centres for more ideological politics, though we came late to this because of the former dominance of the RCC and formerly rural-based society and political values based on social conservatism and the Church.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Labour historically have been fairly successful at getting transfers at least from FG but it seems those days may be over for now at least.
On what basis?
 

hiding behind a poster

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On the basis that they only got 7% of transfers in 2016.
You need to look at the situations where a FG candidate was eliminated, with Labour still in the field, to see the transfer pattern. FG voters transferred very strongly to Labour in 2016, they just didn't come into play much.
 

redhead

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I see this thread died a death. I thought the point of these threads was for people who live in the locale and are familiar with the candidates to discuss them.
 

statsman

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I see this thread died a death. I thought the point of these threads was for people who live in the locale and are familiar with the candidates to discuss them.
Yes indeed.
 

Dermot Lacey

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Dermot Lacey is trying to jostle Humphries out of the selection procedure.
Totally Untrue.

I have just been reselected to contest the Pembroke Ward for the Local Elections and that is ONLY electoral contest I am planning.

Kevin has my 100% support ...and I believe he will win.
 

gatsbygirl20

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Totally Untrue.

I have just been reselected to contest the Pembroke Ward for the Local Elections and that is ONLY electoral contest I am planning.

Kevin has my 100% support ...and I believe he will win.
Good that you can come on here yourself to explain the situation. We used to have more politicians doing that on here back in the day.

What is your overall view on how things will pan out in this constituency?

Since the ré-jigging of boundaries, some of the more "working class" areas have been brought into the constituency (which is how some of us ended up there)
 

Dermot Lacey

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I think the Blueshirts are safe - and final two seats between Ryan, Humphreys and O Callaghan...I think Kevin will be one of the final two.
 

redhead

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For the sake of the readers here you should try and be honest. I have NOT sought a General Election and there was NO heave - you should not LIE.
Don't pay it any attention. Anyone who knows you, knows you're committed to DCC.
 

Levellers

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Candidates will be O'Callaghan, Murphy, Andrews, O'Connell, Ryan, Humphryes, Lynch plus the usual no-hopers like Flynn.

Side line issues are that Humphryes survived the heave and how will FG HQ treat O'Connell after their massive support in '16. She has annoyed both Leo and Murphy but they need the seat.
 

Dermot Lacey

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Candidates will be O'Callaghan, Murphy, Andrews, O'Connell, Ryan, Humphryes, Lynch plus the usual no-hopers like Flynn.

Side line issues are that Humphryes survived the heave and how will FG HQ treat O'Connell after their massive support in '16. She has annoyed both Leo and Murphy but they need the seat.
Why do you perpetuate a Lie. Kevin Humphreys was unanimously selected by Labour in DBS. There was no heave. I have Never sought election to Dail Eireann. It is not my intention to do so. I have been selected to contest the new Pembroke Ward and that is my intention.

I also happen to believe that Kevin Humphreys will be a TD after the next General Election and as importantly that he deserves to be.
 
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