Dublin Bay South - how will next GE pan out

Bertie's Hat

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4 seats

Current: Eoghan Murphy FG, Jim O'Callaghan FF, Eamon Ryan GP, Kate O'Connell FG

Others likely to run:
Kevin Humphries Lab (lost seat in 2016, currently in Seanad)

Chris Andrews SF

Annette Mooney and Mannix Flynn will run but no chance of a seat

FF may add Frank Kennedy to the ticket. He is likeable and will do well but will it be enough to take a seat from FG or GP?

Murphy and O'Callaghan will cling on.
Not convinced that O'Connell will, ran a big campaign last time (possibly with some help from the Indo) and made some good impressions on the doorsteps I hear, but has come across as arrogant since election IMO.

I think Ryan may hang on, did fantastically last time out on transfers. But he could get overlooked with other high profile people in the mix.

Will someone from Renua take Creighton's place on the ticket?


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nakatomi

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For the first time in a long time i would say no change, this constituency has a history of kicking out ministers, but i cannot see that happening now, kate will get the female /liberal vote and will do better than you think.
I would say there could possibly be three ministers here after the next election if fg go into government with ff.
 

Florence

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Why did you leave out the Social Democrats? In the last election their candidate did well - in for the 4th seat. She is not running this time but I presume they are running another candidate - does anyone now who that is?
 

Sierra

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Why did you leave out the Social Democrats? In the last election their candidate did well - in for the 4th seat. She is not running this time but I presume they are running another candidate - does anyone now who that is?
Their website lists Rory Treanor as their representative in the area. I haven't heard of him before, it would be a huge ask for him to get elected at the next General Election. He will be lucky to get elected to the council in 2019. Glenna Lynch ran for them the last time around in Dublin Bay South and she would have had a big personal vote. As you say, she says she isn't running again. I reckon their only chance of a seat here is if Lynch changes her mind and decides to run. That seems unlikely considering she has resigned from the party entirely.

The Social Democrats seem like a busted flush to be honest. The latest opinion poll has them on 0%, it will be hard for them to win many seats on that figure. Shothall and Murphy will likely hold on but mainly due to their own personal vote which is loyal to them.
 

Norman Bates

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4 seats

Current: Eoghan Murphy FG, Jim O'Callaghan FF, Eamon Ryan GP, Kate O'Connell FG

Others likely to run:
Kevin Humphries Lab (lost seat in 2016, currently in Seanad)

Chris Andrews SF

Annette Mooney and Mannix Flynn will run but no chance of a seat

FF may add Frank Kennedy to the ticket. He is likeable and will do well but will it be enough to take a seat from FG or GP?

Murphy and O'Callaghan will cling on.
Not convinced that O'Connell will, ran a big campaign last time (possibly with some help from the Indo) and made some good impressions on the doorsteps I hear, but has come across as arrogant since election IMO.

I think Ryan may hang on, did fantastically last time out on transfers. But he could get overlooked with other high profile people in the mix.

Will someone from Renua take Creighton's place on the ticket?


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If an election shortly with those candidates I'd expect to do well for the four seats:
Eoghan Murphy FG / Jim O'Callaghan FF / Kevin Humphries Lab / Chris Andrews SF or Eamon Ryan GP.

Mind you, I've never been right before. :shock:
 
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Uganda

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If an election shortly with those candidates I'd expect to do well for the four seats:
Eoghan Murphy FG / Jim O'Callaghan FF / Kevin Humphries Lab / Chris Andrews SF or Eamon Ryan GP.

Mind you, I've never been right before. :shock:
Would agree with your assessment of o'callaghan and Murphy ( although murphy's being a lightweight will become more and more apparent).

After that it will depend on overall party fortunes. If the tide is in for FG, o'connell will make it. Doubt the tide will be ever in for labour again so that rules out humphries. Ryan will probably scrape in on transfers.

The tide will need to be really in for SF for Andrews to triumph.
 

the secretary

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Would agree with your assessment of o'callaghan and Murphy ( although murphy's being a lightweight will become more and more apparent).

After that it will depend on overall party fortunes. If the tide is in for FG, o'connell will make it. Doubt the tide will be ever in for labour again so that rules out humphries. Ryan will probably scrape in on transfers.

The tide will need to be really in for SF for Andrews to triumph.
It will likely be the same as you were. The only change that may take place is that Lab might (outside chance) gain aa seat.
The SF serial looser won't gain a seat here. The fools that predicted him to take a seat last time won't be doing so this time.
 

hollandia

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Would agree with your assessment of o'callaghan and Murphy ( although murphy's being a lightweight will become more and more apparent).

After that it will depend on overall party fortunes. If the tide is in for FG, o'connell will make it. Doubt the tide will be ever in for labour again so that rules out humphries. Ryan will probably scrape in on transfers.

The tide will need to be really in for SF for Andrews to triumph.
going on the last poll - 2 FG quotas and SF and FF on .7 of a quota each. Labour and Green nowhere near. In reality, I'd say 1 each of FF, FG, SF and Green, though.
 

the secretary

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going on the last poll - 2 FG quotas and SF and FF on .7 of a quota each. Labour and Green nowhere near. In reality, I'd say 1 each of FF, FG, SF and Green, though.
A poll is only a snapshot in time.
How many polls will we see before the next election!
 

jmcc

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Humphries will retake his seat, just about. He'll slip in between Murphy and O'Connell.
I don't think so. Labour has ceased to be a national party in the wake of the last GE and any Labourites elected in the next GE will be elected on the basis of their personal vote. Having been out of the public eye for so long may mean that he, like many of the Labourites who lost their seats, will be unrecognisable to large parts of the electorate.
 

Fullforward

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Why did you leave out the Social Democrats? In the last election their candidate did well - in for the 4th seat. She is not running this time but I presume they are running another candidate - does anyone now who that is?
SD's gave the Greens 1,400 transfers last time out.
 

hollandia

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A poll is only a snapshot in time.
How many polls will we see before the next election!
True, but polls are the only figures you can analyse. When the next poll comes out, we'll see a difference. One thing I've noticed is that the different methodologies produce wildly different results at constituency level, though marginal differences in the big picture.

Typically we're getting three polls a month. The answer to your question lies in the answer to "how many months until the next election?"
 

SuirView

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If poor "P O'Neill" is to believed, SF would want to win a seat here.
"P O'Neill" is on record as posting poor SF will win 75+ seats soon in the 26!
Last election SF only ran 50 candidates!
 

bogtrotter

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If poor "P O'Neill" is to believed, SF would want to win a seat here.
"P O'Neill" is on record as posting poor SF will win 75+ seats soon in the 26!
Last election SF only ran 50 candidates!
What's your point?
 

SuirView

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What's your point?
I'm sure "speedy" isn't your nickname.
How can poor SF win 75+ seats soon in the 26 (P O'Neill's prediction) when they only ran 50 candidates last election?
Get it?
 

the secretary

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True, but polls are the only figures you can analyse. When the next poll comes out, we'll see a difference. One thing I've noticed is that the different methodologies produce wildly different results at constituency level, though marginal differences in the big picture.

Typically we're getting three polls a month. The answer to your question lies in the answer to "how many months until the next election?"
Lab polled 4% higher in this constituency last time than their national average.
It has to be a target constituency for them if they are going to go anywhere at the next GE.
I still think Lab is the only party that will take a seat if the sitting TDs are to be challenged.
 

hollandia

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Lab polled 4% higher in this constituency last time than their national average.
It has to be a target constituency for them if they are going to go anywhere at the next GE.
I still think Lab is the only party that will take a seat if the sitting TDs are to be challenged.
Yes, and on the last poll figures they're on 0.55 of a quota, way behind everyone else (except Eamon Ryan, who is on .5 of a quota). The model I use has a constituency variance - i.e. if Lab polled 4% higher than at the last election, that additional 4% is applied pro rata to their current polling figures. What the model doesn't do is account for transfers, but if you're on 0.7 on first preferences, genereally speaking you are home and hosed (though I accept not always) because those on 0.55 and .5 of a quota are eliminated before you.

Like I said, the next poll may rate labour higher in the polls than the previous one, and we'll see what that does. That said, LAb have, right across the boards, polled lower than their last GE outing.

ETA: I'd imagine there will be a poll this weekend.
 


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