Dublin Central next GE

Bertie's Hat

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This consistuency is expanding from 3 seats to 4

Paschal and Mary Lou will be safe

Last 2 seats:

FF - Mary Fitzpatrick did disappointingly in 2014 Europeans. Last GE she came 3rd in 1st preferences but lost out on transfers.
Was "gendermandered" last time, but no one else seems obvious for the ticket.

Gary Gannon SD seems to have a good chance. Has built a profile up for himself, seems popular and came close last time out.

Maureen O'Sullivan has probably had her day, her "Lazarus" moment in GE 16 when independents were at an all time high doesn't bode well for next time.

I'm sure I saw a notice for a Joe Costello (Lab) "public meeting" recently, not a chance

Seems like a place where you could run a second Shinner but there were a lot of left wing candidates splitting the vote last time and I don't think another SF TD will be elected in next GE

Likewise I think Christy Burke's best chance and highest name recognition was last GE. Although he seems to be a strong local representative so could surprise

So I think 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF and one SD (if he is still SD by then)

Anyone else in the mix in Dublin Central?
William "DJ" Gorman doesn't count...

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Niall996

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Politics and elections is just a big game to some people. All fun and excitement! The state of the nation and the future of the population therein is just an inconvenient irrelevance to their great childish game pursued through early pubescent teenage isolation, through the their first readings of worn, discredited outdated books, thrilling social integration/dating third level 'socs,' political clubs and Junior Party gathering. They disgust me, whatever 'party' they cling to.
 

ger12

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Pascal wasn't so safe last year.

He got lucky with the redraw.
 

the secretary

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Pascal wasn't so safe last year.

He got lucky with the redraw.
All the same, The original prediction made is likely to be the right one
 

Fullforward

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Northsideman

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Joe Bleedin Costello? Do me a really big favour!

That clown fooled the folks with his weekly picket at the Mater, what did he deliver? FA that's what, a total chancer who deservers his fat arse to be kicked again and again. He should fuk off back to supporting the thugs in Mountjoy,. Labour my arse he's a traitor.
 

edwin

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Got elected on big Labour and FF transfers.
Not really. He got less FF transfers than Maureen O'Sullivan and only marginally more than Christy Burke. The only person he really gained on from FF transfers was Gary Gannon.

FF transferred almost 3 to 1 to 'left wing' candidates rather than FG. Not really the story you want to spin but those are the facts.
 

hollandia

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Not really. He got less FF transfers than Maureen O'Sullivan and only marginally more than Christy Burke. The only person he really gained on from FF transfers was Gary Gannon.

FF transferred almost 3 to 1 to 'left wing' candidates rather than FG. Not really the story you want to spin but those are the facts.
FF transferred at 2.5:1 in favour of left wing candidates, assuming were classifying the sds as left wing. FF transfers were, 21.6% to Pascal, 23.7% to Maureen o Sullivan, 13% to Gerry Gannon and 19% to Christy Burke. Whether more would have went left wing to Mary Lou, we don't know as she was already elected by the elimination of ff. Labour transferred 998 votes or 42.5% to paschal, with the rest evenly distributed amongst the remaining candidates.

I wouldn't say either set of transfers were massive in numbers terms, but lab to FG I would in proportional terms.
 

automaticforthepeople

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This constituency is wide open for a return of the Bert. Three times its given the country a Minister for Finance, these voters are used to high profile candidates with a wider vision. Other than Pascal, I couldn't name another TD in the constituency.

Did Nicky Kehoe ever make it to the Dáil for Dublin Central?
 

Northsideman

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This constituency is wide open for a return of the Bert. Three times its given the country a Minister for Finance, these voters are used to high profile candidates with a wider vision. Other than Pascal, I couldn't name another TD in the constituency.

Did Nicky Kehoe ever make it to the Dáil for Dublin Central?
So you have your head up your arse, never heard of Mary Lou?

What's the view and smell like?
 

Fullforward

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This constituency is wide open for a return of the Bert. Three times its given the country a Minister for Finance, these voters are used to high profile candidates with a wider vision. Other than Pascal, I couldn't name another TD in the constituency.

Did Nicky Kehoe ever make it to the Dáil for Dublin Central?

You have never heard of Mary Lou or Maureen O'Sullivan? Seriously?
 

Degeneration X

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Dublin People - Donohoe’s running mate selected for Dublin Central

"FINE Gael has announced its candidate to join Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe on the Party’s general election ticket in Dublin Central. Deirdre Duffy, who recently served as campaign manager for the ‘Together for Yes’ campaign, was added to the constituency ticket at a meeting of Fine Gael’s Executive Council."

There seems to be a pattern emerging in FG's strategy in North Dublin Bruton, Varadkar and now Pascal all running with token gender quota candidates who have no hope of a seat. FG not taking too many extra seats home in this part of the world at the next GE.
 


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