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Dublin Central... the future?


daftpunkt

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Joined
Jun 22, 2006
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With the sad passing of Tony Gregory, who should be SF's candidate for the up coming by-election, whenever that will be?

On the list I suppose you have, Christy Burke, Mary Lou, maybe Nicky Kehoe? Is he still even in the party?
I think the only person who would make a good go at it would be Christy Burke?

Anyone agree?
 

factual

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Feb 5, 2005
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Mary Lou stood last time and surely it would make sense to run her again as she is one of the best people that SF have.
 
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daftpunkt

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Jun 22, 2006
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Mary Lou stood last time and surely it would make sense to run her again as she is one of the best people that SF have in Dublin.
of that there is no doubt chara.
But she polled badly considering. Dublin central is a parochial environment, from Cabra right down to the docks. Remember Nicky came within a hairs breadth of making it before, he was from the area and of the area. SF have never come so close to a seat in that area before. People will see Christy as the next best thing to Tony, they were very close and seen together at many events and supported each other throughout.

Ideally, it would be MLM to run, but then there's the EU seat to consider in June. I think personally Christy is the man to take the seat, and taking that seat is vital at the moment now that FF are in the sh1ts, especially in DC. Bertie's a lost bet and his running mate Brady is a disaster who does nothing in the area. SF should run Burke and secure the seat, upon that SF could build.
 

Catalpa

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Jun 10, 2004
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10,301
With the sad passing of Tony Gregory, who should be SF's candidate for the up coming by-election, whenever that will be?

On the list I suppose you have, Christy Burke, Mary Lou, maybe Nicky Kehoe? Is he still even in the party?
I think the only person who would make a good go at it would be Christy Burke?

Anyone agree?
It has to be Mary Lou.

If she is going to replace Adams as party leader then she needs a seat in Leinster House if (however remote the prospect) SF are to become a serious electoral force in the South.
 

Keith-M

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Surely you would admit that Mary Lou's higher profile woudl make a difference this time around?
Don't be silly. You understand that in a by-election the winner has to get 50%+1 of the votes at some point in the count. Given that in 2005, SF couldn't even get 10% and did even worse on transfers, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of them getting the seat.
 

Keith-M

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Isn't there a rule against trolling on this site? It's the worst forum around for lack of proper moderation.
Anyway...
There probably is, but I don't think that asking who SF should should run in the by-election would count as trolling. Suggesting that they could win probably is though.
 

daftpunkt

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Jun 22, 2006
Messages
21
It has to be Mary Lou.

If she is going to replace Adams as party leader then she needs a seat in Leinster House if (however remote the prospect) SF are to become a serious electoral force in the South.
Not to swing things off topic, but she'll never by a replacement for Adams. Lets not get short sighted now.
She may have great national potential, but DC is a strange place. They like the home grown hero, the Burke's and the Gregory's of this world. Even though she is very well got I doubt she has the local recognition to pull it off.
 

wysiwyg

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Jun 29, 2008
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366
It's actually probably a difficult question for the party

It has to be Mary Lou on the ticket.. but if it's held on the same day as the Euro's, she will spend half both campaigns answering questions about whether or not she'll actually sit in either seat, should she be elected to both.

Now, while that is a very very slim prospect, it will still be a constant distraction

Mary Lou to run, increase her profile, and, barring one of Gregorys team winning the by election, to win a seat in DC at the next GE, at FF's cost
 

Nem

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Oct 11, 2007
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253
From the perspective of getting her into Leinster House, I'd say they'll need to run her. If only to break the charisma-free zone there. ;) But Keith might be right, if they find a young FFer to run who will run with the help of the Ahern machine. Anybody think that Maureen O'Sullivan might have chance? She delivered the eulogy at his funeral I think?

Btw. I think I was discussed before, but Mary Lou will have an uphill battle hanging on to her MEP seat.
 

geraghd

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Dec 22, 2003
Messages
474
Mary Lou running could pose a problem if the election is on the same day as the Europeans. But either way, I'd put my bets on Senator Paschal Donohoe of FG to win here. Opposition surge in the polls, FF dramatic decline, no significant independent name, and of course Donohoe's fantastic showing last time and subsequent work rate and profile since.
 

geraghd

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Sorry thought this was a general Dublin Central thread..
 

daftpunkt

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Jun 22, 2006
Messages
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It's actually probably a difficult question for the party

It has to be Mary Lou on the ticket.. but if it's held on the same day as the Euro's, she will spend half both campaigns answering questions about whether or not she'll actually sit in either seat, should she be elected to both.

Now, while that is a very very slim prospect, it will still be a constant distraction

Mary Lou to run, increase her profile, and, barring one of Gregorys team winning the by election, to win a seat in DC at the next GE, at FF's cost
Good possibility in your last paragraph.
However, SF could be missing the boat if they don't take the BE seriously and run at it with a good mind of winning it. The big problem with MLM is her rapid climb to stardom. Thats all very well and good, but you won't fool the electorate. All politics is local as they say, and all candiates MUST have a good solid record of local work and getting their hands dirty. That way they win over the masses. MLM rise in the ranks is bereft of local activism per se, this is the real cruncher for SF. They need a home grown hero with the capabilities of MLM, neither Burke and certainly Kehoe come near her for capabilities nationally.

It's a big puzzle.
 

daftpunkt

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Jun 22, 2006
Messages
21
Mary Lou running could pose a problem if the election is on the same day as the Europeans. But either way, I'd put my bets on Senator Paschal Donohoe of FG to win here. Opposition surge in the polls, FF dramatic decline, no significant independent name, and of course Donohoe's fantastic showing last time and subsequent work rate and profile since.
How did he poll down around the north inner city and north west inner city? This was Gregory land, and I think most of it could go to Burke. Anyone remember how Gregory's tranfers went in the last GE?
 

Nem

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Oct 11, 2007
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You hit the nail on the head there daftpunkt. She might be better off going for the Brennan seat?
 

Keith-M

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Mary Lou running could pose a problem if the election is on the same day as the Europeans. But either way, I'd put my bets on Senator Paschal Donohoe of FG to win here. Opposition surge in the polls, FF dramatic decline, no significant independent name, and of course Donohoe's fantastic showing last time and subsequent work rate and profile since.
What "fantastic showing"? While FG was gaining votes all over the country Donohoe brought FG DOWN by 2% and gave them their WORST EVER vote share in the constituency.

Dear God, there there's some amount of rot on this website, but that surely takes the biscuit.
 

Kev408

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Feb 26, 2006
Messages
5,124
Mary-Lou will definitely win in the next election. There is no grey area. She slipped up last time by not appearing in the area enough - she isn't going to make the same mistake again.
 
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