Dublin Central

davehiggz

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Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Central First Preference Votes

Currently: 2 FF, 1 Labour and 1 Independent

Maureen O'Sullivan is dead certain to retain her seat and she may even top the poll.

Pascal Donohoe FG polled very well in the bye-election so he should have a safe seat too.

Labour are also dead certain for a seat here too. Joe Costello will probably keep his seat. There was talk of Labour running Ivana Bacik along side him however I don't believe there's scope for a second Labour seat. I suggest Bacik runs where she lived :).

So one might assume that seat 4 would go to FF. If there's no one else to give a hard challenge then FF probably will take a seat and that may come from either Mary Fitzpatrick or Cyprian Brady.

However if Mary Lou McDonald runs then it's likely that she'll take the seat.

I predict: 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Independent and 1 SF (or 1 FF w/out MLM)
 


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Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.
 

Anorakphobia

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Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.
No FF seat here if the gurrier doesn't run and a decent chance of none even if he does.
My guess is that he cannot resist the limelight and will run.
This may leave Mary Fitzpatrick with nowhere to go except Independent and this will definitely finish any chance of a FF seat.

Maurice Ahern's by election vote of 12% is an accurate barometer of where FF are in DC now and that will not see them get near a seat as transfer wise, Oliver Cromwell would do better.
 

Harmonica

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Joe Costello will take the 1st seat, followed by Maureen O'Sullivan, then Pascal O'Donohoe and Mary Fitzpatrick taking the 4th seat over Cyrprian Brady. Mary Lou will fail yet again.
Costello, O'Sullivan & Donohue should get seats. Can't see getting a seat. Fitzpatrick is probably only FF-er who can get a seat. If FF run Brady & Maurice Ahern they will likely end up with nothing. Probably the onlt way MLM would get a seat by default.
 
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Costello, O'Sullivan & Donohue should get seats. Can't see getting a seat. Fitzpatrick is probably only FF-er who can get a seat. If FF run Brady & Maurice Ahern they will likely end up with nothing. Probably the onlt way MLM would get a seat by default.
I'd say we'll run Mary Fitzpatrick and let Cyprian Brady run alongside her. With Fitzgerald taking the seat.
 

breakingnews

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O'Sullivan will struggle, there's a history of independents getting in in by-elections and then losing in the general election. A lot of her vote in June was sympathy based. Equally though, Mary Lou won't make a breakthrough. Hard one to call. Not definite either if Bertie will quit.
 

Richard Roma

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Can't see FF losing both seats here, they did reasonably well in Cabra Glasnevin in the locals, though Cyprian Brady might pull out to save himself the embarrassment. O' Sullivan may find it tough going aswell seeing as she can't harp on ad nauseum about Tony Gregory next time. And Christy Burke debacle is bound to have a detrimental effect on the Sinn Fein vote. Labour are home and dry and so are Fine Gael despite having Father Dougal as a candidate.

After my amateur analysis, I predict 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 FF
 

LgCastell

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I'd agree with O' Sullivan next time out she cant ride on Gregory's coattails which i found quite annoying constantly saying its tonys seat and i want to continue his legacy ... next time out she cant use this ...so without that ground it'll come down to her performance since she was elected ....

Donohoe should get in no prob as you said he performed well in the bye election and got decent airtime being brutons chauffeur during his coup!!!

Lab's Costello also safe..has the 2nd lab been announced here?

I cant see Bertie running again surely he'll turn his attention to his budding literary career!!! and difficult to see a former taoiseach wanting to be a backbencher in opposition?

Mary Fitz should be lead FFer she polled well in the LE but no room for 2 FF brady will lose out i'd say he was dependant on the Bertie vote and if thats not there he'll fall away

It'll be interesting to see what guise McKenna will be running under with rumours of her new party, MLM might poll strongly

I'd say FG,Lab,FF all one last seat between - SF and Indo
 

Blanchinner

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You're right, one each however the last seat will be a fight between Labour and O'Sullivan, not SF and O'Sullivan. Christy Burke has since left SF and so I think the SF will be quickly eliminated and the transfers will go mainly to Labour or O'Sullivan.

Here's the detailed analysis on my blog :) Dublin Central | David Higgins
O Sullivan has been very poor, and it did'nt go down to well in east wall ,her home patch, when she voted with the Gov. on a number of occasions. She has expressed a desire to go back to teaching ,according to close friends. her seat is defo a left wing seat and Mary Lou has a very strong chance of taking it. Christy Burke won't run due to lack of resources. He's making a nice earner from the council and this siuts him !!
 

Reality bites

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Labour's second candidate will be Aine Clancy from Cabra Glasnevin
 

Red_93

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Labour's second candidate will be Aine Clancy from Cabra Glasnevin
She should eat into Donohoe's and Fitzpatrick's votes. She is probably the only person there who has the potential to stop Mary Fitz taking a seat (probably won't but anyway).
 
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Wednesday

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Costello is totally safe and Donohue will probably take a seat too even though he's no great shakes. Enough people will vote FG to get FF out.

O'Sullivan will retain her seat although on a much reduced vote. She's no Gregory and the votes that she's cast in support of the government haven't helped her but I don't believe they've hurt her that badly either, particularly since she's rowed back from those positions more recently. She's still a safe enough candidate for everyone to give a high preference to which means she'll get in at least on transfers if not on #1s.

As for the last seat, I think Fitzpatrick has performed well enough as a councillor, and is sufficiently detached from St Luke's, to get in on a combination of the dyed-in-the-wool FF vote (which is still mind boggingly high in this constituency) and those who'd otherwise look elsewhere for a protest vote.

MLM has been in the constituency a lot and is building a base for future elections but I think the next one is too soon. Burke and the other independents won't be in the race (though he will eat at MLM's vote).

Christian Solidarity Party and Immigrant Control Platform will be humiliated again, and will hopefully give up and go home.

Is Patrick Maphoso a citizen yet? Not that he has any chance of a seat, just wondering if he can run.

Prediction: Lab1, FG1, Ind1 and FF1 if Mary Fitzpatrick is the candidate, otherwise probably Clancy.
 

Blanchinner

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I have heard that Burke won't stand.The election is probably goin to happen in the spring ,IMO. mary Lou has indeed been building and O'Sullivan is most definitly not been on the ground atall. will bertie stand or not ,if not i think FF will struggle, tho i think he will stand to keep the seat and then just bugger off into the sunset with the money. I am aware that FG are putting a lot of Money into the area.
 

Red_93

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If Mary Lou really is committed to Dub central, she'll run in the 2014 LEs.
 


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