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Dublin Fingal - By Election 2019

drjimryan2

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Nov 16, 2009
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So reading between the various lines, I reckon on Daly getting the third seat.........

Were now on for an October by election.......so who will win the seat......

Greens - Will their surge continue
FG - Will Dr Reilly get the whole constituency behind him?
FF - Will Lorraine get the whole constituency behind her?
Is their a socialist vote without Daly at the helm?
Could Rob ODonoghue get a seat for Labour?

Its all to play for....
 
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lostexpectation

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Catahualpa

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I think there will be a General Election in September TBH

Its giving hostages to Fortune for any sitting Government to risk 3 bye elections at the same time

It allows the electorate the opportunity to give the Powers that be a good kicking

Leo gets his kicks the other way round....
 

making waves

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I think there will be a General Election in September TBH

Its giving hostages to Fortune for any sitting Government to risk 3 bye elections at the same time

It allows the electorate the opportunity to give the Powers that be a good kicking

Leo gets his kicks the other way round....
Its four by-elections - and the government isn't risking anything - they are only defending one seats - DMW and they might hold that one - they could also be in with a shout in Wexford and to a lesser degree CNC. Unless their vote dropped dramatically in all four (and there is no indication of that) it wouldn't change anything materially and would have little impact on the Dail arithmetic.
 

Degeneration X

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Its four by-elections - and the government isn't risking anything - they are only defending one seats - DMW and they might hold that one - they could also be in with a shout in Wexford and to a lesser degree CNC. Unless their vote dropped dramatically in all four (and there is no indication of that) it wouldn't change anything materially and would have little impact on the Dail arithmetic.
If FF won all four (unlikely IMO) would they have as many TDs in the Dail as FG?
 
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making waves

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If FF won all four (unlikely IMO) would they have as many TDs in the Dail as FG?
And it still wouldn't alter the stability of the government. If Martin and FF brought the government down then FG would go on the attack claiming that Martin was exposing Ireland to disaster over Brexit.

Now the current government is extremely fragile and weak - but FF cannot afford to collapse it because of Brexit and the fear that they would be blamed if everything went belly-up.
 

PL2015

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Feb 26, 2015
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Well there seems like a decent chance these by-elections will go ahead so may as well have a look at the potential runners and riders for the seat vacated by Clare Daly (Independents4Change) upon her election to the European Parliament.

Fianna Fáil :
Fianna Fáil secured 23.5% of the vote here in 2016 which saw the election of Darragh O'Brien while Lorraine Clifford-Lee finished 7th but was later elected to the Seanad. They made gains in the Local Electoral Areas here recently and will fancy their chances of winning the seat here. However their candidate selection will be crucial here, will they go with Senator Clifford-Lee who failed to get elected at both the 2014 LE and 2016 GE or will they go with Councillor Daragh Butler who comfortably topped the poll in the Swords LEA just a few weeks ago.

Fine Gael :
Fine Gael were disappointed here in 2016 when they lost a seat when Alan Farrell held his but James Reilly lost his. Their FPV stood at 20.1% which saw Reilly finish in 6th in this 5-seater constituency. Since then, Reilly has also been serving in the Seanad when he was nominated by Enda Kenny. The only councillor they got elected in the three LEA's in 2019 was Tom O'Leary which does not bode well.

Sinn Féin :
Sinn Féin do have a sitting TD here with Louise O'Reilly who was parachuted in here in 2016 and got elected off a FPV of 8.7%. Ann Graves scraped in to be the only surviving SF councillor in the LEAs in this constituency and while SF have next to no hope of winning the seat here, they will have to mount a challenge and remain present in the constituency and their result here will give a good indication as to how at risk O'Reilly's seat is at the next general election.

Labour :
Labour will be hoping for a good result here as Brendan Ryan got elected here in 2016 with 10.0% and they will be hoping to lay down a good foundation to make sure that seat is safe at the next GE. The party performed solidly in the LEs here, winning one seat in each LEA with Robert O'Donoghue topping the poll in Rush-Lusk which may put him as the frontrunner to be the Labour candidate?

Green Party :
The Greens do have a decent presence in the constituency as this is the constituency of former Green Party leader and TD, Trevor Sargent. Joe O'Brien ran for the Greens here in 2016 and won 4.6% of the FPV and his vote is sure to increase next time round. He got elected at the recent local elections in Balbriggan while they also won a seat in Swords so they should do decent here but not enough to win the seat.

Social Democrats :
The Social Democrats did win a seat in Rush-Lusk with Paul Mulville and they will presumably contest the seat to raise his profile and the party's profile in the area. They won't come close to the seat but it'll be interesting to see how SD-GP-LAB all transfer to each other and I think whoever is the top of those three candidates may perform very well and get close to the seat although I can't see them winning it.

Independents4Change :
This is Claire Daly's party who are defending the seat and where her usual votes go may decide the fate of this election. Between Daly and her running mate, Barry Martin, in 2016 they polled 19.7% which is a lot of votes to go around. Dean Mulligan would be the presumptive candidate here as he won a council seat in Swords and whoever Daly backs will perform strongly, but with Brendan Ogle also reappearing a little bit on the political scene, could he end up as an I4C candidate here considering he supported many of the party's candidates in the local elections.

Independents :
Between the three LEAs in the constituency, 4 independent councillors were elected, most notably Tony Murphy who topped the poll in Balbriggan and ran as an Independent Alliance candidate in 2016 when he polled 4.1% of the vote.


Prediction :
At the moment, I would have to go with Fianna Fáil if they selected Daragh Butler but I wouldn't be so sure if it was Lorraine Clifford-Lee. James Reilly is a strong albeit divisive candidate for Fine Gael but it can't be ruled out that either the 'Daly candidate' or a Centre-Left candidate like Joe O'Brien or Labour could transfer each other close to the seat.
 

midlander12

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Well there seems like a decent chance these by-elections will go ahead so may as well have a look at the potential runners and riders for the seat vacated by Clare Daly (Independents4Change) upon her election to the European Parliament.

Fianna Fáil :
Fianna Fáil secured 23.5% of the vote here in 2016 which saw the election of Darragh O'Brien while Lorraine Clifford-Lee finished 7th but was later elected to the Seanad. They made gains in the Local Electoral Areas here recently and will fancy their chances of winning the seat here. However their candidate selection will be crucial here, will they go with Senator Clifford-Lee who failed to get elected at both the 2014 LE and 2016 GE or will they go with Councillor Daragh Butler who comfortably topped the poll in the Swords LEA just a few weeks ago.

Fine Gael :
Fine Gael were disappointed here in 2016 when they lost a seat when Alan Farrell held his but James Reilly lost his. Their FPV stood at 20.1% which saw Reilly finish in 6th in this 5-seater constituency. Since then, Reilly has also been serving in the Seanad when he was nominated by Enda Kenny. The only councillor they got elected in the three LEA's in 2019 was Tom O'Leary which does not bode well.

Sinn Féin :
Sinn Féin do have a sitting TD here with Louise O'Reilly who was parachuted in here in 2016 and got elected off a FPV of 8.7%. Ann Graves scraped in to be the only surviving SF councillor in the LEAs in this constituency and while SF have next to no hope of winning the seat here, they will have to mount a challenge and remain present in the constituency and their result here will give a good indication as to how at risk O'Reilly's seat is at the next general election.

Labour :
Labour will be hoping for a good result here as Brendan Ryan got elected here in 2016 with 10.0% and they will be hoping to lay down a good foundation to make sure that seat is safe at the next GE. The party performed solidly in the LEs here, winning one seat in each LEA with Robert O'Donoghue topping the poll in Rush-Lusk which may put him as the frontrunner to be the Labour candidate?

Green Party :
The Greens do have a decent presence in the constituency as this is the constituency of former Green Party leader and TD, Trevor Sargent. Joe O'Brien ran for the Greens here in 2016 and won 4.6% of the FPV and his vote is sure to increase next time round. He got elected at the recent local elections in Balbriggan while they also won a seat in Swords so they should do decent here but not enough to win the seat.

Social Democrats :
The Social Democrats did win a seat in Rush-Lusk with Paul Mulville and they will presumably contest the seat to raise his profile and the party's profile in the area. They won't come close to the seat but it'll be interesting to see how SD-GP-LAB all transfer to each other and I think whoever is the top of those three candidates may perform very well and get close to the seat although I can't see them winning it.

Independents4Change :
This is Claire Daly's party who are defending the seat and where her usual votes go may decide the fate of this election. Between Daly and her running mate, Barry Martin, in 2016 they polled 19.7% which is a lot of votes to go around. Dean Mulligan would be the presumptive candidate here as he won a council seat in Swords and whoever Daly backs will perform strongly, but with Brendan Ogle also reappearing a little bit on the political scene, could he end up as an I4C candidate here considering he supported many of the party's candidates in the local elections.

Independents :
Between the three LEAs in the constituency, 4 independent councillors were elected, most notably Tony Murphy who topped the poll in Balbriggan and ran as an Independent Alliance candidate in 2016 when he polled 4.1% of the vote.


Prediction :
At the moment, I would have to go with Fianna Fáil if they selected Daragh Butler but I wouldn't be so sure if it was Lorraine Clifford-Lee. James Reilly is a strong albeit divisive candidate for Fine Gael but it can't be ruled out that either the 'Daly candidate' or a Centre-Left candidate like Joe O'Brien or Labour could transfer each other close to the seat.
I haven't looked at the stats yet in detail but my sense is FF are the favourites. FG would be happy with second or a close third. It's mad to see Labour being considered in the context of possible byelection winners (particularly when there are also sitting SF and I4C TD's as well) but I agree it's a possibility if they have a good candidate and other left candidates transfer to them.

On the basis of what you say about SF here, O'Reilly's seat seems very shaky in the GE.
 

lff12

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Jun 24, 2004
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356
Don't think Labour have anyone strong enough to win here. Their heartland is in Portrane/Donabate but they would be too weak with this.
Paul Mulville is popular but their candidate for SD will be Tracey Carey who is decent and polled about 500 1st prefs in Swords for LE, so will gain a bit - she could get in on transfers. She lives in Malahide but will struggle in Skerries/Balbriggan where the party is weaker.
James O Reilly not popular in Swords, LE results from 2014 here was a dismal 3% for the "local" candidate and 5.7% for 2019. Similar issue with Donabate/Portrane who pretty much have routed every FG candidate for several LEs going back. They would depend heavily on votes from Malahide/Portmarnock and Skerries/Balbirggan/Rush/Lusk which would leave a difficult path from transfers later on.
Ogle is an interesting one. I4C is really a Swords operation but Ogle has a profile through the trade union movement that might help him. The trouble is that he is a shoo-in in an area which hasn't a "local" TD - that probably might undermine him in Swords slightly. Swords is traditionally an FF stronghold and will probably hold their noses and vote for Clifford-Lee who is *slightly* less divisive than James O'Reilly. If she can pull a good vote out of Malahide she may well get in.

All depends really on how FF and more pertinently FG are doing towards end of the year - if Brexit is looking messy the battle will be between the 2 senators, if domestic issues prevail, I would say Greens or SocDems would have a shot. A lot of this will depend on turnout - if the turnout in Swords is strong I'd put my money on the FF candidate.
 

drjimryan2

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Nov 16, 2009
Messages
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FF have created a right mess with the woman......

Butler would take a seat and indeed imo, hold it for two in the general election....

all things being equal butler is a much better candidate than Clifford.....

I can see sf/ira losing their seat in a GE too....
 


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