Dublin Fingal: Call the next GE results.


Hitchcock

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I think this is generally predictable.

Current TDs

Darragh O'Brien (FF)
Clare Daly (I4C)
Louise O'Reilly (SF)
Brendan Ryan (Lab)
Alan Farrell (FG)

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=280

My sense is that there will be no change. The first three will easily hold on, FG will definitely win a seat, probably Farrell again and given Ryan held on in 2016 I'd imagine he's in with a reasonable shout again but he's broadly anonymous at constituency and national level.

The main other contenders are Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) and James Reilly (FG). Lee has pushed her self quite a bit and is a regular enough feature on the Late Debate and the Tonight Show but that reflects the paucity of those programmes rather than any momentum behind her! Her and O'Brien don't exactly get on but she could push for a seat if FF got a bounce in the polls.

Reilly is doing a bit on the ground but I think his time has passed, it must be to his eternal shame that Farrell gets elected ahead of him!

There's no other serious contenders from what I can see.

The Greens will stand but they are a long way from the heady days of Trevor Sargent.

The Soc Dems are standing Tracey Carey but she's not in the running.

The SP/Solidarity may stand but their candidate from 2016 has effectively disappeared.

PBPA have nothing on the ground but they may stand a candidate which seems to be their strategy around the country.

So I think it will be no change but Labour could lose to a second FF or FG.
 

statsman

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I think this is generally predictable.

Current TDs

Darragh O'Brien (FF)
Clare Daly (I4C)
Louise O'Reilly (SF)
Brendan Ryan (Lab)
Alan Farrell (FG)

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=280

My sense is that there will be no change. The first three will easily hold on, FG will definitely win a seat, probably Farrell again and given Ryan held on in 2016 I'd imagine he's in with a reasonable shout again but he's broadly anonymous at constituency and national level.

The main other contenders are Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) and James Reilly (FG). Lee has pushed her self quite a bit and is a regular enough feature on the Late Debate and the Tonight Show but that reflects the paucity of those programmes rather than any momentum behind her! Her and O'Brien don't exactly get on but she could push for a seat if FF got a bounce in the polls.

Reilly is doing a bit on the ground but I think his time has passed, it must be to his eternal shame that Farrell gets elected ahead of him!

There's no other serious contenders from what I can see.

The Greens will stand but they are a long way from the heady days of Trevor Sargent.

The Soc Dems are standing Tracey Carey but she's not in the running.

The SP/Solidarity may stand but their candidate from 2016 has effectively disappeared.

PBPA have nothing on the ground but they may stand a candidate which seems to be their strategy around the country.

So I think it will be no change but Labour could lose to a second FF or FG.
If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
 

Fr. Ted Crilly

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If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
Ryan will hold his seat.
A great man for getting people council houses, like his brother was before him....
Useless on the national stage.
 

Hitchcock

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If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
He's by no means certain and he's vulnerable to FG/FF second candidates but I think he'll hold on.
 

Fr. Ted Crilly

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As far as I know, them days are gone.
No chance.
A relation of my wife, from 'that side of the family' if you know what I mean, got a 3 bed house in a private estate in Rush, Co. Dublin for himself and some yoke he met on 'plenty of fish', (who he got pregnant), thanks to Mr. Ryan.

Fact.
 

making waves

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Ryan will hold his seat.
A great man for getting people council houses, like his brother was before him....
Useless on the national stage.
You mean that Fingal are building council houses - when did that happen?
 

Northsideman

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Looking from outside I never see or hear of Brendan Ryan, does he do a lot of work on the ground?

He's seems vunerable or am I off the mark?
 
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Don't see Ryan holding on, relied on his brother cnvassing and reminding them last time, now even less while remember his brother.

Think carpet bagger Clifford Lee is in with a chance.
 

DJP

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You mean that Fingal are building council houses - when did that happen?
According to Fingal they are building (/and aquiring) a lot of council houses and apartments but I can only guess that they are over the eastern side of the council because I haven't heard of any big council houses/apartments/mixed developments in Dublin 15.
 

Hitchcock

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Looking from outside I never see or hear of Brendan Ryan, does he do a lot of work on the ground?

He's seems vunerable or am I off the mark?
He is vulnerable but it depends on the momentum of other candidates. FF or FG are the most likely beneficiaries as there isn't anyone else in the distant chasing pack.
 

Dame_Enda

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On balance I predict it the current line up will be returned. The constituency is largely a Socialist and Republican one (including FF in that latter definition - though thats a debate for another thread), but with high income enclaves like Donabate with its high density of golf courses. Swords has a strong Independent vote at council level, but also a substantial FF one.
 
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statsman

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He's by no means certain and he's vulnerable to FG/FF second candidates but I think he'll hold on.
Thereby upsetting many of our regular contributors.
 

hiding behind a poster

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No chance.
A relation of my wife, from 'that side of the family' if you know what I mean, got a 3 bed house in a private estate in Rush, Co. Dublin for himself and some yoke he met on 'plenty of fish', (who he got pregnant), thanks to Mr. Ryan.

Fact.
Just to clarify -

He got the house thanks to Mr Ryan; or

He met the yoke off Plenty of Fish thanks to Mr Ryan; or

He got her pregnant thanks to Mr Ryan,

Or perhaps a combination of all three?

This could be major scandal territory.....
 

hiding behind a poster

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As a long time believer in Irish democracy, I now consider that as a result of the FFG/Lab axis of collusion, that democracy in our country is dead.
I will be canvassing in any upcoming elections for a protest vote.
The people who died for our country have been betrayed by the trough dwellers.
Hand it back to the Brits......
Translation - you don't accept the choices made by the majority.
 

hiding behind a poster

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On balance I predict it the current line up will be returned. The constituency is largely a Socialist and Republican one (including FF in that latter definition - though thats a debate for another thread), but with high income enclaves like Donabate with its high density of golf courses. Swords has a strong Independent vote at council level, but also a substantial FF one.
Every party in Ireland is republican.
 
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