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Dublin Fingal: Call the next GE results.


DJP

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Speculating about a FG/SF Govt. after the next GE to me is just speculation and is not very realistic. I suppose a significant number of FG members like yourself would favour it but I can't see most of your party being in favour of it and if a party vote on it was passed I could see a lot of your members leaving the party over it. It seems to me logical to continue with the Confidence and Supply strategy.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Speculating about a FG/SF Govt. after the next GE to me is just speculation and is not very realistic. I suppose a significant number of FG members like yourself would favour it but I can't see most of your party being in favour of it and if a party vote on it was passed I could see a lot of your members leaving the party over it. It seems to me logical to continue with the Confidence and Supply strategy.
It's not in either party's interest to continue with C&S after the next election. If SF stay in double figures in seats, sooner or later someone will go into coalition with them.
 

midlander12

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Speculating about a FG/SF Govt. after the next GE to me is just speculation and is not very realistic. I suppose a significant number of FG members like yourself would favour it but I can't see most of your party being in favour of it and if a party vote on it was passed I could see a lot of your members leaving the party over it. It seems to me logical to continue with the Confidence and Supply strategy.
It's all about the arithmetic, to be honest. All parties come out with highfalutin guff during the campaign about 'core values' and 'partnership govts' and 'red lines' - but really the only red line is 79 or 83 or whatever the overall majority requirement is now. If FG+SF equals that, it'll probably happen. If FF+SF equals it (a much bigger ask admittedly), it's probably even more likely, despite the pained protestations of both to the contrary.

If however, SF suffers an unexpected electoral rebuff, they may not wish or not be in a position to risk going into govt, given the inevitable electoral whirlwind it reaps next time round for the junior partner (and yes it will happen to them too).
 

hiding behind a poster

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Because if it starts to look like you'll get a FG or FF led C&S agreement all the time, it encourages people to cast a protest vote on issues unrelated to government formation, on the basis that you won't affect the ultimate result. Both parties would lose votes and seats.
 

hiding behind a poster

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If however, SF suffers an unexpected electoral rebuff, they may not wish or not be in a position to risk going into govt, given the inevitable electoral whirlwind it reaps next time round for the junior partner (and yes it will happen to them too).
But they have to set that against the possibility that if they never go into government, people will get bored with them and they'll become irrelevant.
 

hollandia

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Can someone make a Laois Offaly one
Write one here and I'll post it in a new thread. Or PM it if you prefer. [MENTION=31138]statsman[/MENTION] can then put the link in the main thread.
 

Hitchcock

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Hitchcock

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I don't know. But it won't happen, as it's not in the strategic interest of either FG or FF. If it wasn't going to happen in 2016 when no other combination had a majority (and I told people on here it wouldn't happen pre-2016, when the herd were insisting it would), it's not gonna happen any time.
You're right about the strategic interests of FF and FG but also not allowing a space for the left to develop was/is a factor too. However the key reason why it hasn't happened was Labour's craven desire for power now matched by Sinn Féin - that always allowed the FF/FG dodge a bullet so to speak.
 

Hitchcock

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Darren J. Prior;12463255[B said:
]Speculating about a FG/SF Govt. a[/B]fter the next GE to me is just speculation and is not very realistic. I suppose a significant number of FG members like yourself would favour it but I can't see most of your party being in favour of it and if a party vote on it was passed I could see a lot of your members leaving the party over it. It seems to me logical to continue with the Confidence and Supply strategy.
It's pretty much nailed on barring unforeseen events. There's a notable easing of tension between the two and quite a bit of 'making eyes' (if you know what I mean) going on.
 

DJP

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It's not in either party's interest to continue with C&S after the next election. If SF stay in double figures in seats, sooner or later someone will go into coalition with them.


It's pretty much nailed on barring unforeseen events. There's a notable easing of tension between the two and quite a bit of 'making eyes' (if you know what I mean) going on.
If the public think there is a real possibility that SF might be in Govt. after the next GE they will probably get a much bigger vote than if FG and FF have completely ruled it out. It may be a bit early for FG and FF to do so. I agree that it looks likely that SF will be in Govt. in the South some time but I would expect that to be with FF, and not while Micheál Martin was leader of the party. A small part of me would like, more out of curiosity, SF to be in Govt (at once they didn't have the Finance and Justice portfolio's) but I would balance that against the reality of the big negatives of the party in general, which I would hope that you both know about already. The exit poll done on party support done at the PE which has SF on something like 14% shows that the strategy of keeping them at bay is working and likely to work- talking up up them being in Govt. will likely increase their support.
 

hiding behind a poster

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You're right about the strategic interests of FF and FG but also not allowing a space for the left to develop was/is a factor too. However the key reason why it hasn't happened was Labour's craven desire for power now matched by Sinn Féin - that always allowed the FF/FG dodge a bullet so to speak.
I don't think so. Saying "we want to stay in opposition and build a broad left-wing alternative, no matter how long it takes", doesn't wash with voters other than the more dedicated of your current lot. And being seen as irrelevant to the formation of the next government can turn a potentially good election bad, or a bad election worse. Witness FG in 2002, and FF in 2011. The same would probably happen to SF if they were determined to stay out of government next time.
 

hiding behind a poster

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If the public think there is a real possibility that SF might be in Govt. after the next GE they will probably get a much bigger vote than if FG and FF have completely ruled it out. It may be a bit early for FG and FF to do so. I agree that it looks likely that SF will be in Govt. in the South some time but I would expect that to be with FF, and not while Micheál Martin was leader of the party. A small part of me would like, more out of curiosity, SF to be in Govt (at once they didn't have the Finance and Justice portfolio's) but I would balance that against the reality of the big negatives of the party in general, which I would hope that you both know about already. The exit poll done on party support done at the PE which has SF on something like 14% shows that the strategy of keeping them at bay is working and likely to work- talking up up them being in Govt. will likely increase their support.
Why do you expect SF to coalesce with FF first?
 

DJP

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Why do you expect SF to coalesce with FF first?
Because I have faith in most FG members at least on this issue more than I would with the majority of FF on this issue. Whatever about the long term to be advocating FG go into Govt. with SF after the next GE is naieve on the part of any FG member doing so in my opinion.
 

statsman

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It's pretty much nailed on barring unforeseen events. There's a notable easing of tension between the two and quite a bit of 'making eyes' (if you know what I mean) going on.
Brexit has done a lot to bring them together.
 

Hitchcock

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I don't think so. Saying "we want to stay in opposition and build a broad left-wing alternative, no matter how long it takes", doesn't wash with voters other than the more dedicated of your current lot. And being seen as irrelevant to the formation of the next government can turn a potentially good election bad, or a bad election worse. Witness FG in 2002, and FF in 2011. The same would probably happen to SF if they were determined to stay out of government next time.
I don't agree. Labour on a number of occasions could have stood aside and legitimately argued that there are two conservative pro market, right wing parties with very little separating them on fundamental issues. In that context they would make a perfect partners in government. Unfortunately Labour have never had the courage to strongly make that argument as they have been focused on getting in to government at all costs. 1992 was a classic illustration of that and it took them 15 years to recover, they immediately repeated the error and are no unlikely to ever regain any serious representation.

Sinn Féin are about to do the same with FG, though I suspect they'll seek a higher price than Labour have probably around housing and the nonsense of a border referendum to name two.
 

FunkyBoogaloo

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Brendan Ryan, Alan Farrell and Darragh O'Brien....


The first attacked those he professed to represent whilst in government. The last helped his party almost destroy the economy when he was in government. The second lad is, simply put, as thick as elephant shyte in a bottle (which is ten times thicker than tar).

If the people of Fingal elect these knaves - expecting different results - then more fool them.
 

Fr. Ted Crilly

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Brendan Ryan, Alan Farrell and Darragh O'Brien....


If the people of Fingal elect these knaves - expecting different results - then more fool them.
The council house facilitator, the compo fraudster and the economy destroyer.......
Blessed, we are........:cry2:
 
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