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Dublin Mid-West: all the GE reults


the secretary

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Jan 29, 2013
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5,830
Why are SF not running 2 here?
 


midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,669
Why are SF not running 2 here?
They got 23% last time so barring a massive jump this time they are simply not in the market for a second seat. If there's a second left seat this time, Kenny and the SDs' Hennelly are already there ahead of them.
 

Donking

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Joined
Nov 16, 2013
Messages
43
They got 23% last time so barring a massive jump this time they are simply not in the market for a second seat. If there's a second left seat this time, Kenny and the SDs' Hennelly are already there ahead of them.
I wouldn't rule out emer Higgins taking a 2nd seat for FG. Also the sinn Fein councillors are very poor and not the type sinn Fein would want at national level. They had a decent councillor in clondalkin but he resigned from sinn Fein and is now an independent
 

DMW19

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Apr 29, 2019
Messages
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I wouldn't rule out emer Higgins taking a 2nd seat for FG. Also the sinn Fein councillors are very poor and not the type sinn Fein would want at national level. They had a decent councillor in clondalkin but he resigned from sinn Fein and is now an independent
And that Sinn Fein councillor, Jonathan Graham, is now running for Fianna Fail in the Local Elections.

U pretty much agree with the consensus here of 1 each for FG, SF and FF and then the 4th up for grabs.

Gino Kenny has a strong base in Clondalkin but peak PBP
may have passed. The fact that his base is Clondalkin is also significant. Although most identified with Lucan she isn't really a true Lucan based TD whereas the other 3 sitting TDs are all Clondalkin based so I think the final seat is most likely to go to a Lucan based candidate.

Last time out Tuffy, Gogarty and McNally were all bunched tight together but well behind Kenny. One of these will have to gain momentum to be in the shake up and I would think McNally probably has the best chance overall especially as she may prove attractive for transfers from left wing candidates especially. That's why I think the Local Elections in Lucan will be important in establishing a front runner among these. I wouldn't totally rule out Labour though.

The most interesting thing here could be the internal FG battle. They would have been considered contenders for a second seat with Emer Higgins . However assuming Fitzgerald is elected Higgins will be joined by another Fg candidate - most likely Vicky Casserly from Lucan or former TD Derek Keating assuming he is elected in Palmerstown Fonthill. Without Fitzgerald the FG vote will fall slightly and a possible Keating comeback might make him a stronger candidate than Higgins.

At the moment I would call it 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 SD
 

Donking

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Joined
Nov 16, 2013
Messages
43
And that Sinn Fein councillor, Jonathan Graham, is now running for Fianna Fail in the Local Elections.

U pretty much agree with the consensus here of 1 each for FG, SF and FF and then the 4th up for grabs.

Gino Kenny has a strong base in Clondalkin but peak PBP
may have passed. The fact that his base is Clondalkin is also significant. Although most identified with Lucan she isn't really a true Lucan based TD whereas the other 3 sitting TDs are all Clondalkin based so I think the final seat is most likely to go to a Lucan based candidate.

Last time out Tuffy, Gogarty and McNally were all bunched tight together but well behind Kenny. One of these will have to gain momentum to be in the shake up and I would think McNally probably has the best chance overall especially as she may prove attractive for transfers from left wing candidates especially. That's why I think the Local Elections in Lucan will be important in establishing a front runner among these. I wouldn't totally rule out Labour though.

The most interesting thing here could be the internal FG battle. They would have been considered contenders for a second seat with Emer Higgins . However assuming Fitzgerald is elected Higgins will be joined by another Fg candidate - most likely Vicky Casserly from Lucan or former TD Derek Keating assuming he is elected in Palmerstown Fonthill. Without Fitzgerald the FG vote will fall slightly and a possible Keating comeback might make him a stronger candidate than Higgins.

At the moment I would call it 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 SD
wouldn't be too sure that casserly would be a running mate for Higgins. If keating manages to get elected in fonthill then I think he would be a contender. I wouldn't rule out a return of lavelle for GE. He fell out with Fitzgerald a while back and that probably cost him the GE candency. With Fitzgerald in Europe it could pave the way for him. I would think Higgins and Lavelle
 

redneck

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
6,594
As a resident of this constituency I would guess that there will be:
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF and the final seat up for grabs. I would find it hard to see Fg winning here in this working class constituency. But I could be wrong. If FG win they are well on their way back into power imho. The final seat will be a battle between FG, SD, PBP and Independents. Personally I don't think FG will win 2. Final seat is too close to call.
 

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