Dublin Mid-West By-Election 2019

Keatingfan

Active member
Joined
May 7, 2013
Messages
228
If a general election isn’t held before November, a by-election will have to take place following Frances Fitzgerald’s move to Europe.

The local elections will have provided some information on likely runners and assuming it goes ahead it will be intriguing to see who will be in the frame. I’d be interested in p.ie users’ views. Here’s my initial take.

Fine Gael - Emer Higgins was already selected as a general election candidate along with Francis Fitzgerald. She is the likely by-election candidate since Keating failed to get back onto SDCC. Vicki Casserly or Kenneth Egan not in the running, but the local group may seek a return for hugely popular former Councillor William Lavelle. He may contest now Frances gone, if only to lay down a marker for two candidate ticket. Favourites to retain.

Fianna Fáil - The FFers have a dilemma here. To parachute or not parachute. None of their elected councillors got a huge vote. Gilligan would never be selected in a million years. Moynihan only scraped in in Palmerstown-Fonthill EA so he’s not long established. Ed O’Brien might be asked to take on the burden but to be clear his profile is non existent in the southern half. Would they take a risk and run a celebrity candidate or someone with a sporting link? Or even a sitting independent councillor? Outside shot.

Sinn Fein- Would they gamble on a husband and wife team? If so, Lynn Boylan is a shoe-in. Mark Ward will be salivating but that’s not how the shinners work. They have to be in the running.

Labour - Tuffy. Only one Council seat in DMW so the obvious choice unless the Clondalkin mafia stirs things up. But won’t feature in the end.

Social Democrats - Anne-Marie McNally will run but her lack of work on the ground put paid to her chances in Lucan and she won’t get the same boost from the posters with Murphy and Shorthall again. They will run a fine campaign however.

Green Party - Kavanagh got elected and he’s already the GE candidate so he is the logical choice. They will be hoping to capitalise on the Green Wave. They will be transfer friendly but everyone will be claiming green credentials. There’s also an elephant or two in the room.

Independents - The biggest elephant is Gogarty. He polled more in two electoral areas than the greens’ combined vote in DMW and won’t be shy of boasting about his green credentials. He has space to grow his vote assuming O’Connell and O’Toole don’t run. If he outpolls the greens their wave is over as they will not gain from the green part of his vote. Gogo could make an impact on transfers if he comes in the top four on first preferences. Other indos likely to run include Timmons, Hayes and O’Broin (another green type). None of these will figure but they will spoil some of Gogarty’s impact.

PBP - Johansson
They had a reasonable election and will be in the running depending on “left” transfers. Their combined votes on council put them seriously into contention.

Nobody else will feature.

So how will it go? I predict a FG hold, with this being the first preference order:

FG
SF
FF
PBP
GOGARTY
LABOUR
GREEN PARTY
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
OTHERS

Sinn Fein will be in contention. FF need a super candidate. PBP need good transfers. A dark horse would be Gogarty if he stays ahead of the greens Most likely an eventual elimination.
 


DMW19

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Apr 29, 2019
Messages
32
That;s weird. I was just posting on the LE thread at the same time as you started this. This is what I had written before seeing your post here:


Obviously we now have a by election coming up if there is no General Election. FG and SF remain the 2 largest parties by votes here so presumably Higgins and Ward would be the candidates. I think they might be too polarising to make it through and there could be another challenger for the seat. I reckon Gogarty is probably best positioned as an Independent/Environmentalist candidate and has name recognition and could mount a challenge. I thought I might have been saying that about McNally but not on the basis of the result. Tuffy and Johanssesn I presume would contest and one of the 3 FF councillors - hard to know which. Gilligan on the basis of service but maybe Moynihan as he seems to be close to John Curran and arguably had a tougher area to be elected from. Interesting times ahead for DMW for sure.



-----------------------------------------

Will come back to it again tomorrow but never even thought of the SF/Lynn Boylan thing. That is even more interesting. And the William Lavelle issue
 

SuirView

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Joined
Mar 29, 2012
Messages
14,035
Some comedown for poor Lynn.
After losing a European Election!
 

Keatingfan

Active member
Joined
May 7, 2013
Messages
228
Slept on this over a few nights. Only one winner in hindsight.

Can’t see SF winning this by election after their fall in support.

Can’t see FF winning with its current councillors, unless they get a fantastic parachute or Gogarty agrees to run on FF ticket.

While we are on Gogarty, I can’t see the greens coming in the top 5 in this constituency without adding his votes into the mix. I also can’t see Gogarty winning as an independent without latching onto the green surge or joining FF. Can’t see any other indo getting close.

Can’t see SDs and McNally making a breakthrough as she fluffed it in the LE and will have Tuffy breathing down her neck to stay in later counts.

Can’t see Labour having the FPVs to mount a challenge.

Ditto PBP and the Swedish Cllr.

So who are we left with - FG that’s who!

Emer Higgins or William Lavelle would poll well ahead of everyone else and in a poll of mediocrity get close to 30%.

Someone earlier mentioned inability to attract transfers, but I think the FG by election candidate would get votes from everywhere except SF and SDs and PBP. FG would end up way ahead of the next challenger.
 

Donking

Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2013
Messages
64
Wrong there keating fan. Lavelle is a washed up has been. He pushed for caroline brady and canvassed with her and it backfired. One fg councillor out of 10 seats between lucan and fonthill/palmerstown, who ever was behind the strategy in dublin mid west should hang their head in shame. I would say we will have a GE before a by election but if a by election it will be near Higgins. In general election it will be near Higgins and casserly with little expectation that casserly would be elected.
 

Ptown Shinner

Member
Joined
May 9, 2019
Messages
51
Gogarty has met the
Slept on this over a few nights. Only one winner in hindsight.

Can’t see SF winning this by election after their fall in support.

Can’t see FF winning with its current councillors, unless they get a fantastic parachute or Gogarty agrees to run on FF ticket.

While we are on Gogarty, I can’t see the greens coming in the top 5 in this constituency without adding his votes into the mix. I also can’t see Gogarty winning as an independent without latching onto the green surge or joining FF. Can’t see any other indo getting close.

Can’t see SDs and McNally making a breakthrough as she fluffed it in the LE and will have Tuffy breathing down her neck to stay in later counts.

Can’t see Labour having the FPVs to mount a challenge.

Ditto PBP and the Swedish Cllr.

So who are we left with - FG that’s who!

Emer Higgins or William Lavelle would poll well ahead of everyone else and in a poll of mediocrity get close to 30%.

Someone earlier mentioned inability to attract transfers, but I think the FG by election candidate would get votes from everywhere except SF and SDs and PBP. FG would end up way ahead of the next challenger.
Interesting post. Gogarty has met the Ff top brass but is reluctant to take the plunge to the galway tent birgade.

I think we would be competitive in a bye-election. Yes we had a bad day but turn out will be higher in our areas in a bye-election. I think it's a three way fight SF, FF and Fg regardless of who the candidates are.

You seem very confident about the strength of the fG VOTE
 

PL2015

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2015
Messages
688
If a general election isn’t held before November, a by-election will have to take place following Frances Fitzgerald’s move to Europe.

The local elections will have provided some information on likely runners and assuming it goes ahead it will be intriguing to see who will be in the frame. I’d be interested in p.ie users’ views. Here’s my initial take.

Fine Gael - Emer Higgins was already selected as a general election candidate along with Francis Fitzgerald. She is the likely by-election candidate since Keating failed to get back onto SDCC. Vicki Casserly or Kenneth Egan not in the running, but the local group may seek a return for hugely popular former Councillor William Lavelle. He may contest now Frances gone, if only to lay down a marker for two candidate ticket. Favourites to retain.

Fianna Fáil - The FFers have a dilemma here. To parachute or not parachute. None of their elected councillors got a huge vote. Gilligan would never be selected in a million years. Moynihan only scraped in in Palmerstown-Fonthill EA so he’s not long established. Ed O’Brien might be asked to take on the burden but to be clear his profile is non existent in the southern half. Would they take a risk and run a celebrity candidate or someone with a sporting link? Or even a sitting independent councillor? Outside shot.

Sinn Fein- Would they gamble on a husband and wife team? If so, Lynn Boylan is a shoe-in. Mark Ward will be salivating but that’s not how the shinners work. They have to be in the running.

Labour - Tuffy. Only one Council seat in DMW so the obvious choice unless the Clondalkin mafia stirs things up. But won’t feature in the end.

Social Democrats - Anne-Marie McNally will run but her lack of work on the ground put paid to her chances in Lucan and she won’t get the same boost from the posters with Murphy and Shorthall again. They will run a fine campaign however.

Green Party - Kavanagh got elected and he’s already the GE candidate so he is the logical choice. They will be hoping to capitalise on the Green Wave. They will be transfer friendly but everyone will be claiming green credentials. There’s also an elephant or two in the room.

Independents - The biggest elephant is Gogarty. He polled more in two electoral areas than the greens’ combined vote in DMW and won’t be shy of boasting about his green credentials. He has space to grow his vote assuming O’Connell and O’Toole don’t run. If he outpolls the greens their wave is over as they will not gain from the green part of his vote. Gogo could make an impact on transfers if he comes in the top four on first preferences. Other indos likely to run include Timmons, Hayes and O’Broin (another green type). None of these will figure but they will spoil some of Gogarty’s impact.

PBP - Johansson
They had a reasonable election and will be in the running depending on “left” transfers. Their combined votes on council put them seriously into contention.

Nobody else will feature.

So how will it go? I predict a FG hold, with this being the first preference order:

FG
SF
FF
PBP
GOGARTY
LABOUR
GREEN PARTY
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
OTHERS

Sinn Fein will be in contention. FF need a super candidate. PBP need good transfers. A dark horse would be Gogarty if he stays ahead of the greens Most likely an eventual elimination.
Yeah you've pretty much hit the nail on the head there with your summary.

Fine Gael :
Emer Higgins is destined to be the candidate here after her poll-topping performance in the Local Elections in Clondalkin and as she was already selected as the candidate for the General Election then surely she'll be standing here. Fine Gael secured 26.3% of the vote in 2016 and she is certainly the frontrunner for the seat here.

Fianna Fáil :
Agreed that Fianna Fáil do have a real dilemma here as none of their candidates are exactly inspiring. Gilligan does solid but wouldn't win while Moynihan and O'Brien didn't exactly blitz the polls. John Curran won 16.2% of the vote in 2016 here so I can't see any of those candidates increasing that vote share to contend for the seat.

Sinn Féin :
Interesting the mentioning of Lynn Boylan as a potential candidate here but I don't think they'll throw her straight back into the fold and I could see her running in Dublin North-West instead. I could see Mark Ward running here after his poll-topping performance in the Palmerstown-Fonthill LEA and SF polled 22.7% in the last GE so are certainly contenders. However, the collapse of their vote in Clondalkin in the last locals would suggest their vote in the constituency will decline.

Labour :
With Joanna Tuffy being elected to the Council and Robert Dowds just missing out, Labour will be looking for a positive result here with an eye to regaining a seat here in the next general election. The Labour vote absolutely collapsed from 30.8% to 5% between 2011 and 2016. Tuffy was the candidate last time out and I imagine it'll be the same for this by-election. No chance of winning the seat but her vote share will be interesting.

Social Democrats :
I think one of the biggest disappointments in the recent locals for the Soc Dems was the fact that Anne-Marie McNally failed to win in the Lucan LEA and polling very ordinarily after she secured 6.1% of the vote in 2016. She presumably will be the candidate though again in the hope she can rebound at the next elections.

Green Party :
The electoral success of Peter Kavanagh in Clondalkin in the locals does bode well for the Greens and they should do decently here considering they previously elected a Green Party TD in Paul Gogarty but the fact that Gogarty will probably be running here so that negates their chances of coming close to winning here.

Solidarity-PBP :
This is another important by-election for PBP here as they do have a sitting TD with Gino Kenny who polled 10.7% in 2016 and presumably Madeleine Johansson will contest the by-election here as she got re-elected to the council and they'll be hoping for a solid performance and to poll ahead of the likes of Labour and Gogarty.

Independents :
Paul Gogarty is an obvious candidate here as a former TD with a high-profile in the constituency. His FPV share was 5.9% and I think that will increase with his Green credentials. None of the other Independent candidates are strong enough to feature in the running for the seat but Francis Timmons would do solid.

So far I've just been predicting the winner which at the moment I reckon will be Fine Gael and most likely their candidate Emer Higgins.

However, since you predicted the first preference order this is how I think it'll go :
1. Fine Gael
2. Sinn Féin
3. Fianna Fáil
4. Labour
5. Gogarty
6. Solidarity-PBP
7. Social Democrats
8. Green Party

However with transfers, I could see Labour/Gogarty overtaking Fianna Fáil as they'll all get transfers from Soc Dems, Greens and even PBP more so than FG and FF.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
50,474
Gogarty has met the


Interesting post. Gogarty has met the Ff top brass but is reluctant to take the plunge to the galway tent birgade.

I think we would be competitive in a bye-election. Yes we had a bad day but turn out will be higher in our areas in a bye-election. I think it's a three way fight SF, FF and Fg regardless of who the candidates are.

You seem very confident about the strength of the fG VOTE
Turnout will be higher everywhere in a by-election.
 


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