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Dublin Mid West predictions


cain1798

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 6, 2003
Messages
418
Can't find an existing thread on the next election for DMW and wondered how people were calling it.

Labour are guaranteed to hold their seat, but are the other three up for grabs? Even if FF are down to 20 per cent in Dublin they should be okay for one. Gogarty may be gone. Harney refused recently to say she definitely wouldn't be running. FG have to take a seat here but will Fitzgerald be the only candidate? Might Keating run as well?

So, that would be one Labour, one FG, one FF and the fourth a fight between a second Labour candidate, possible second FG candidate, Sinn Féin, PBP?
 

davehiggz

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May 7, 2009
Messages
1,116
Senator Frances Fitzgerald and Derek Keating have been selected to run. I think both will poll very strongly and Keating should take a seat with Fitzgerald likely to take a second.

Labour will also poll strongly, somewhere in the high 20s. However they'll fall short of a second seat and their transfers should help the second FG candidate.

FF should hold their seat but Gogarty will lose out.

2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab.
 
Joined
Jul 8, 2010
Messages
24
FG took 4480 votes (12%) in the 07 general election.

FG took 8753 votes between 4 candidates across Lucan and Clondalkin wards in the 09 local elections.

With a quota likley to be short of 8000 it is hard to see FG doubling their vote within the next 12 months.

Both Keating and Fitzgerald will be competing for votes from the Lucan end of the constituency.

07 showed transfers favour Labour rather than FG.

A second FG seat seems highly unlikly
 

The Cat

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Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Messages
977
FG took 4480 votes (12%) in the 07 general election.

FG took 8753 votes between 4 candidates across Lucan and Clondalkin wards in the 09 local elections.

With a quota likley to be short of 8000 it is hard to see FG doubling their vote within the next 12 months.

Both Keating and Fitzgerald will be competing for votes from the Lucan end of the constituency.

07 showed transfers favour Labour rather than FG.

A second FG seat seems highly unlikly
If Gogarty were to loose a seat to Labour it would be Karma in operation.
 

Red_93

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Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,678
If Gogarty were to loose a seat to Labour it would be Karma in operation.
Why, I know he said he wanted to kill Joanna Tuffy's beagle and said phuck you to Emmett Stagg but is that all?
 

The Salmon of Knowledge

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Joined
Mar 3, 2010
Messages
465
I dont see SF doing it.

They have been far to inconsistent in there work in the constituency, and the lack of candidate continuity is a serious weakness.

They are standing a good candidate but he is being parachuted in from the outside, a strategy which failed with the doughnut Spain in '07.

That said the same candidate may as well be in labour so if he can hang on long enough he might get labour transfers, but its unlikly.

Last seat will be a fight for second labour or pbpa.
 

tenderloins1

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Joined
Mar 28, 2007
Messages
211
Twitter
@electionlit
Fianna Fails John Curran, despite everything should be safe.
Joanna Tuffy should win a seat for Labour.
I assume that Mary Harney wont be standing.
I think Derek Keating may outpoll Frances Fitzgerald (although she may get some of the Harney vote)
Gogartys gone.
So 1 FF , 1 Lab and 1 FG so far...

The final seat should be between Fine Gael and Labour. There will be a number of candidates to the Left of Labour. A Sinn Fein candidate (Eoin O'Broin?), People Before Profits Gino Kenny and The Workers Party Mick Finnegan is likely to stand also.
A lot will depend on how well spread the Labour vote is. By that if Tuffy and the second Labour candidate are not too far apart they should profit more in transfers from the smaller parties and the Greens than Fine Gael will.
The problem for Labour is to have a second candidate capable of getting a decent first preference vote.
Poor vote management from Labour and Fine Gael should win the second seat.
 

Reality bites

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Dec 4, 2006
Messages
199
There is a guaranteed gain for FG here and their current strategy would make them favourites for two seats at moment. Keating brings a big personal vote and Fitzgerald has resurrected the organisation out there. Probably at expense of Gogarty 1st, if harney retires it becomes a slam dunk to win 2 i would reckon. Ive said previously this is the easiest constituency in Dublin for FG to win an extra seat in, followed by another.

Tuffy will be most likely joined by Dowds but this is by no means certain. Labour got lucky at last GE with increase in seats, high transfer attractiveness, combined with weak FG org at time that hindered ability to win a seat.

But FG now have 4 council seats btw Clondalkin & Lucan where once they had 1 (due to PD Tony Delaney joining in Clon, Keating in Lucan joining & lavelle winning a seat in Lucan).

Labour should have won a second Council seat in Clondalkin, plus excellent vote management, helped by fact she was only female gave parachutee Caitriona Jones the last seat in Lucan.
If Dowds was on ticket he would benefit from SF & PBP transfers probably but it could seriously weaken Tuffy and she would have to do huge work in Palmerstown area and seriously work over Lucan. But Labour will be very transfer attractive, and Greens will not be so there will probably be a large tranche of votes out there to be won in later counts.

This constituency will be one of the really interesting ones- how much can Labour gain, how will FG do, will Curran's high personal vote collapse, will Gogarty disappear, would harney's loyal vote leave her after recession. Its a microcosm of the country.
FF & Greens did awfully here in locals, FG have strongly established themselves and Labour have become slightly more coherent but lots still to do.
 

Design for Life

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Jul 25, 2009
Messages
247
All bets are off surely on this one though? John Curren govt. whip, Harney and Gogarty. The thoughts of either of them three getting re-elected don't bare thinking about. It's awful that these people voted for Harney's awful health policies and they may elect not one but two FG TDs with a similarily bad health policy :(

Am I right in assuming that the Dub Mid West constituency is made of the Clondalkin/Lucan ward?
It's a weird constituency, did Harney live there before she ran or was she parachuted in?
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

All bets are off surely on this one though? John Curren govt. whip, Harney and Gogarty. The thoughts of either of them three getting re-elected don't bare thinking about. It's awful that these people voted for Harney's awful health policies and they may elect not one but two FG TDs with a similarily bad health policy :(

Am I right in assuming that the Dub Mid West constituency is made of the Clondalkin/Lucan ward?
It's a weird constituency, did Harney live there before she ran or was she parachuted in?
She ran in Dublin South West but as far as I'm aware it was redrawn so she ran in Dublin Mid-West .

Is it confirmed that she is retiring or is she going to run again?
 

Design for Life

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Jul 25, 2009
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247
Oh yeah, you're right - ElectionsIreland.org: Mary Harney


With a career politician like Harney I can't understand why she would or wouldn't run again. If she did run it'd presumably be as IND (unless PD 2.0 appears) and IND TDs are always uselful for coalitions. If she didn't run I suppose she could save face in the event that she got a dreadful vote and avoid a Michael McDowell type exit..
 

Ronanh87

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May 28, 2010
Messages
75
Harney is supposed to be retiring. Curran is safe. Fitzgerald to top poll, Tuffy and Keating to battle it out for second. Gogarty is gone.
 

Design for Life

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Jul 25, 2009
Messages
247
Curran's safe? Can someone put a face on the voter who'll re-elect that man. I could ask that question of any FF TD seeking re-election but as mention, Dub Mid West is a bit different.
 

constitutionus

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Joined
Feb 19, 2007
Messages
23,330
the problem with DMW is the whole thing hinges on what the hell harney is going to do.

she is meant to retire but whether you can believe that is another thing.

if she stands i reckon she'll get back in, mainly as LAST time she stood there was a fair amount of "popular" antipathy for her and she got in no problem.

i dont see FG getting a second seat as fitzgerald couldnt get one first time around so theyll probably be happy with the one if they get it (which they should as if they cant get a seat in there in this enviroment they may as well close up shop and go home)

i personally think gogarty is the one MOST in danger.

the quite honestly bizarre - and embarressing - behaviour from him combined with the spotlight being on just how NUTS some green party policies are will probably see the whole party go the same way as the PDs in 07. i think theres a real chance only trevor sargent will get back in.

TBH if they ran one i reckon LAB would probably get a second seat and that seat would be gogartys. that said theres a fair amount of disgruntled protest votes out there to be had so you cant rule out the shinners ,but that vote could easlily go LAB or IND too so my money would be on the former. cant see that vote go FG.

one things for sure, itll be a hell of a fun constituancy to watch as it really is all up in the air. id say curran is safe as there'll always be people thatll vote FF regardless, just like how oconnor is safe in tallaght IMO.

Gotta say though im looking forward to kebabs biting the dust there :)
 

Rocky

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Joined
Dec 9, 2004
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8,550
She ran in Dublin South West but as far as I'm aware it was redrawn so she ran in Dublin Mid-West .

Is it confirmed that she is retiring or is she going to run again?
Clondalkin is Harney's base and up until the 2002 election that was in Dublin South West with Tallaght. However for the 2002 a new constituency Dublin Mid West was created with Lucan and Clondalkin and so Hareny naturally moved there. Interestingly enough Rabbitt lives in Clondalkin and up until 2002, he would have lived in his constituency, but not now.
 

Rocky

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Dec 9, 2004
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8,550
If Hareny retires I think Fine Gael have a good chance of taking two. However if she doesn't it's going to be very difficult. Tully is safe, Curran should be ok as he is popular in DMW and so will get a bit of a personal vote, I think Gogarty is gone and there is one FG seat, but it really all comes down to whether Hareny runs or not for the second.
 

drjimryan2

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Joined
Nov 16, 2009
Messages
1,718
john is a long way from 'safe' if you read the 'ff internal polls'......

the feeling in ff is taht the only way taht a seat will be held in dmw is if mary re-joins the party and two will run to get one seat (probably harney).....

prediction: tuffy, fitzy, harney, keating....
 

Rocky

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Joined
Dec 9, 2004
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8,550
john is a long way from 'safe' if you read the 'ff internal polls'......

the feeling in ff is taht the only way taht a seat will be held in dmw is if mary re-joins the party and two will run to get one seat (probably harney).....

prediction: tuffy, fitzy, harney, keating....
If Fianna Fail seats like DMW are in real danger, then they really are screwed in Dublin.
 
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