Dublin North Central predictions

DJP

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Currently the three TD's are Richard Bruton, Sean Haughey and Finian McGrath.

A journalist in The Tribune said that Aodhán Ó Ríordáin was certain to get elected recently but I am sure Aodhán would not be too confident because of that. Is he safe? Whose seat will he take? And how will Naoise Ó Muirí do do you reckon?
 


anfieldabff

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Currently the three TD's are Richard Bruton, Sean Haughey and Finian McGrath.

A journalist in The Tribune said that Aodhán Ó Ríordáin was certain to get elected recently but I am sure Aodhán would not be too confident because of that. Is he safe? Whose seat will he take? And how will Naoise Ó Muirí do do you reckon?
It would be just wonderful if Sean Haughey lost his seat, the end of another corrupt political dynasty.
 

controller

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Would we dare to see the return of Ivor Callely??
 

Panopticon

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Richard Bruton to top poll.

2 seats between:
Aodhán Ó Riordáin
Finian McGrath
Sean Haughey

However, I believe it is very unlikely that Sean Haughey will be re-elected. I think it is extremely unfair to describe him as a member of a "corrupt dynasty".

Not much of a base for the far-left here. Too suburban and too prosperous (it's a relatively well-off constituency).
 

controller

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However, I believe it is very unlikely that Sean Haughey will be re-elected. I think it is extremely unfair to describe him as a member of a "corrupt dynasty".
He is his fathers son. He lived off the benefits of his fathers corruption...
 

controller

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You believe in the "sins of the father"? How backward. It's not his fault who his father was.
Did he ever denounce his corruption or try to put distance between his fathers policies and himself. Did he enjoy the benefits of his fathers will without complaining???
 

Panopticon

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Did he ever denounce his corruption or try to put distance between his fathers policies and himself. Did he enjoy the benefits of his fathers will without complaining???
Would you like to condemn every bad thing that your family ever did publicly?

Almost nobody would. We don't prevent almost everybody from holding public office.
 

Dunlin3

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Good to see Labour put a candidate forward. Labour used to have a seat here and better to have a Labour TD than Finian McGrath. An Independent vote will be a wasted vote in the next election as Fine Gael and Labour will have a clear majority. Now if we could only get rid of Sean Haughey aswell. Two Fine Gael TDs for DNC possibly?
 

controller

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Would you like to condemn every bad thing that your family ever did publicly?
Actually of my father had been as corrupt as CJ, I would have criticised him, and put distance between the two of us. But he is not, so I have no need to.
 

Keith-M

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Richard Bruton to top poll.

2 seats between:
Aodhán Ó Riordáin
Finian McGrath
Sean Haughey

However, I believe it is very unlikely that Sean Haughey will be re-elected. I think it is extremely unfair to describe him as a member of a "corrupt dynasty".

Not much of a base for the far-left here. Too suburban and too prosperous (it's a relatively well-off constituency).
I'll be a little more sure I reckon. Bruton and Ó Riordáin are safe. Last seat is between McGrath and FF. Not sure if FF are running (or should run) two.
 

Panopticon

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Good to see Labour put a candidate forward. Labour used to have a seat here and better to have a Labour TD than Finian McGrath. An Independent vote will be a wasted vote in the next election as Fine Gael and Labour will have a clear majority. Now if we could only get rid of Sean Haughey aswell. Two Fine Gael TDs for DNC possibly?
Not enough support for that. If Donnycarney leaves FF, they will leave for Labour.
 

cricket

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Even from afar , I couldn't see Haughey making it in a 3 seater , McGrath seems to be in trouble as well.
 

DJP

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I don't know the constituency as well as my own although I have a current affairs programme on NeaFM but I would say that Naoise will do well. I would say based on my limited experience that Naoise would be a fair contender. I can see it being 2 FG and 1 LP.
 

brughahaha

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Fail to see where Labours optimism of a guaranteed seat comes from....
07 7.3%
02 10.5 %
and 97 6.6% (Mc Dowell scraped in , when it was a 4 seater)

And add in that O'Riordain is a first time out cllr - (despite some predictions here that he'll top the poll against one of FG's most high profile TD's but thats p.ie for ya :D) , and as a constituent have only met him once (Lisbon Treaty) I have to be honest and say the I find the presumption of a seat more wishful than honest ........ (especially given the 48% tax proposal today)

As someone said Bruton to top the poll by a country mile and a dog fight for the last 2 places...... As for Haughey ... depends on whether they split the vote by having Heney running.... if Haughey is the only FF candidate I would reckon he has a fair chance of keeping O Riordain out
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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I don't know the constituency as well as my own although I have a current affairs programme on NeaFM but I would say that Naoise will do well. I would say based on my limited experience that Naoise would be a fair contender. I can see it being 2 FG and 1 LP.
It is not impossible that Naoise could take a seat but it would require a lot of luck. After today's poll in the Sun putting Sinn Féin on 16%, I would not rule them out for the last seat. As of now, I think that Richard Bruton and Aodhán Ó Riordáin should be safe with the following contenders for the final seat:
- Finian McGrath (is he definitely running or will he hand over to Damian O Farrell?)
- the Sinn Féin candidate (have they been selected?)
- Sean Haughey
- Naoise Ó Muirí (assuming he is the candidate - is it definite that he is running and not Gerry Breen?)
Finian McGrath would have to be favourite to take the seat at the moment but it all depends on the election campaign.
 

lying eyes

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Haughey has not had an outing for some time {Like her indoors} Out of sight out of mind.
 

SilverLining

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Dublin North Central already has a Blueshirt holding a seat and one is far too many, as far as I am concerned. From above replies, DNC seems to frequently mixed up with Dublin Central. DNC was a 4 seater, but is now a 3 seater - S Haughey FF, R Bruton FG and F McGrath Ind. Reducing by one seat, helped push out the infamous I Callely FF.

The Blueshirts have crazed power bases in places such as Clontarf and surrounding areas. Whereas the other two occupying "TDs" get sheep-like support from the west and east sides of the constiuency. Bruton seems to think his seat is always safe but after recent storm-in-teacup Blueshirt leadership tiff, it anything really a sure thing anymore.

DNC has an intersting history with some very well known TDs and candidates over time - Dublin_North_Central.
 


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